2008: A Realignment in the making

[Silent Hunter]

Interesting article. Too early to say if we're seeing a realignment. You seem to have written this pre-New Hampshire, am I right?

[Silent Hunter]

Began it before... finished it afterward.

I see. Don't know whether we'll actually get "change" though. Just because a candidate says it...

[Silent Hunter]

No doubt McCain would be a very strong candidate if the electorate wants change.

but he voted with Bush like 85%, if not 90% of the time. I don't see how that is change.

The other 10%?

[Silent Hunter]

It's not automatically the case that a united government of the opposing party to the prevailing one equals a realignment.

Look at Jimmy Carter. Not also the facts that the Democrats controlled the House all the way until 1994.

[Silent Hunter]

The thing is, any administration of any stripe can be "change".

The thing is Obama is talking about change as an idea, Clinton is talking about it as processes. The really big difference in my view is presentation. I know a lot of Obama people will hate hearing this... and no doubt will disagree, but Obama and Clinton are virtually line-ball on most issues - I think Clinton will bring about change , so will Obama. Obama is making people believe in change as an ideal - essentially creating an appetite for his policies. Clinton is getting to that point straight away - which has hurt her with the public.

McCain as CHANGE?!?! The guy with the 90% support of the Bush program? He stood up to Bush on the "surge" and torture... and oh my didn't we hear all about it. He's recruited a lot of Bush 2000/2004 people. Where it really matters, not the issues the Reps bring up to distract people - because God knows Gay marriage is SO much more important than healthcare, he's more or less on pegging with Bush.

Actually, he did stick anti-torture riders onto quite a few bills a while back.

You know, perhaps you're comparing the guy with Bush because you're scared he might win...

[Silent Hunter]

Might be done, might not be. Too early to tell, one way or the other. For all we know, the next Democratic President could end up having a scandal that makes Watergate look like small fry. Not saying it will happen.

Take a look at the UK. There was a massive change in British electoral politics in 1997. Didn't equal a policy realignment.

[Silent Hunter]

2006 was not a vote for a new ideology, it was a vote against the incumbent Republicans.