Oregon 2016 GE Pres Results

[Nym90]

Thank you for an extremely detailed and informative analysis. I feel as though I know these towns and counties through and through now.

[Nym90]

FDR won every county in Oregon in 1936 and all but Benton (!) in 1932.

[Nym90]

Actually it was 1932 that Benton voted Republican for Herbert Hoover. In 1936, FDR won every county in the state.

I think your logic still stands though. College towns were very Republican back then since only the wealthiest could afford to go to college (especially in 1932 at the height of the Depression) and my understanding is that college professors were mostly of the elite class back then as well.

[Nym90]

May I reiterate that this is really interesting info.

You see a lot of similar patterns among demographics in Oregon to what you see nationally, but drilling down in such detail to city and precinct levels really allows this to be illustrated (and proved) in a way that you cannot get from exit polling.

I wonder to what degree Hillary specifically faced animus that no other Dem candidate would have among WWC/union voters due to her being the wife of the man who they felt sold them down the river so to speak.

[Nym90]

The Democrat who performed best in Toledo in recent elections relative to any other Democrat was Jeff Merkley, who is from southern Oregon timber country. He actually performed slightly better there than he did statewide.

Likely not a coincidence.

Merkley for President in 2020? Seriously, he seems like a great pick on paper. He was the only Senator to endorse Sanders also, so he could be a great heir to Bernie's legacy, if we accept the reality that Bernie will no longer be able to mount a bid of his own at age 79.

Also consider how easily he won statewide in 2014 in a midterm in a very GOP year. His performance was pretty impressive considering the circumstances. He's demonstrated a real appeal to working class voters that not many other Democrats have (Sherrod Brown is another that comes to mind).

[Nym90]

A point to consider:

Statewide turnout in Oregon was up significantly from 2012, after having declined in 2012 from 2008 and having declined in 2008 from 2004 (the last one was a bit of a surprise to me as turnout nationally was up...perhaps the fact that Oregon was no longer a targeted swing state like it was in 2000 and 2004 hurt turnout).

So even though Trump's percentage of the vote statewide was the lowest of any Republican since Bob Dole (and only barely better than Dole by three hundreds of a percent), he did get more total votes than Romney or McCain did.

Likewise for Clinton, despite having the lowest percentage of the vote for any Dem candidate since Gore in 2000, she received more total votes than Obama in 2012, second in state history only to Obama in 2008.

I bring this up because I wonder how it would impact your analysis. I wonder if turnout levels in these small mill towns that swung so heavily Republican was higher than it has been in the past (indicating that there were a lot of previously non voters coming out for Trump) or whether it was more stable and thus really was a collapse in the Democratic vote as the percentages indicate.

[Nym90]

Regarding what happens to the Trump voters in the future, I think you raised an important point.

If a Trump voter otherwise voted Dem down the rest of the ballot (as clearly many did in small towns in Oregon this year), that would seem to indicate they were voting for Trump for economic reasons and those voters seem to me the most likely to abandon him in the future if (almost certainly when) his economic promises remain unfulfilled.

A lot of these towns/areas (not just in Oregon but nationally) voted strongly for Obama in 2008, which helps support the idea that it's long term economic decline that is the source of their frustration, and thus they will vote Trump out in 2020 if it continues.

Trump voters who also switched to the GOP column downballot, on the other hand, are more likely to be voting for him and his party for cultural reasons, and feeling the world as a whole is passing them by and they don't recognize it anymore, and have finally gotten fed up and switched, and Trump and the GOP I believe are much more likely to be able to keep those voters in their column through beating the drum of cultural resentment/disenfranchisement.  Think the people who eat up stuff like the "War on Christmas" memes and such....the Fox and Friends watchers, etc. Many of whom sadly are former Democrats.

[Nym90]

Yes, this could absolutely become a good wine producing area just like the Willamette valley did some 10-20 years ago (NOVA probably knows better the history of that).

Also, marijuana could grow quite well in that area also. That would be the real ticket to bringing jobs to the area now that legalization is spreading. Are you listening, Jeff Sessions?

[Nym90]

Bush actually only won Washington by 52-46 in 1988, but it had been 63-37 for Reagan in 1984. This goes a long way in explaining why Dukakis was able to win Oregon despite "only" winning 62-37 in Multnomah, which obviously would be atrocious for a Democrat nowadays.

[Nym90]

Interesting....I always knew Ashland was liberal, but I'm surprised it is that overwhelmingly Democratic, especially being in an otherwise very Republican part of the state. As you say, it would seem to be the most liberal city in Oregon, even moreso than Portland.

What do you mean by "major data issue" for the 2008 numbers?