latest Betfair odds

[eric82oslo]

Tulsi-mania subsides a bit:

Harris 17.9
O’Rourke 15.4
Warren 12.2
Biden 10.5
Booker 7.8
Sanders 7.5
Gillibrand 7.2
Gabbard 6.6
Brown 5.3
Klobuchar 5.3

Sanders and Gillibrand should be higher. Biden lower.

[eric82oslo]

Oddschecker has officially placed Andrew Yang on 5th place now.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Buttigieg is about to surpass Yang for the 5th place on Oddschecker.com, however even Yang's numbers are mostly still shortening.

Buttigieg's shortest odds are 12, Yang's are 13.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Buttigieg just surpassed Yang on Oddschecker and the 17 different bookmakers they're currently tracking.

Oddschecker's full ranking as of March 26:

1. Bernie Sanders - 4.5
2. Kamala Harris - 4.5
3. Joe Biden - 5
4. Beto O'Rourke - 5

5. Pete Buttigieg - 17
6. Andrew Yang - 18
7. Elizabeth Warren - 25
8. Cory Booker - 25
9. Amy Klobuchar - 33
10. Tulsi Gabbard - 33

11. Kirsten Gillibrand - 66
12. John Hickenlooper - 66
13. Julian Castro - 80
14. Jay Inslee - 80
(Steve Bullock - 80)
(Eric Swalwell - 100)
(Tim Ryan - 100)
(Michael Bennet - 100)
(Seth Moulton - 100)
(Bill de Blasio - 100)
(Stacey Abrams - 100)
15. John Delaney - 100
16. Marianne Williamson - 150

[eric82oslo]

Yang is surging too.

[eric82oslo]

The current highest odds from the 17 international bookmakers tracked by Oddschecker.com:

1. Sanders: 3.5
2. Biden: 3.75
3. Harris: 7
4. Buttigieg: 7
5. O'Rourke: 14
6. Yang: 17
7. Warren: 20
8. Booker: 33
9. Gabbard: 50
10. Klobuchar: 50

11. Gillibrand: 80
12. Hickenlooper: 80
13. Castro: 100
14. Bullock: 100
15. Swalwell: 100
16. Abrams: 100
17. Inslee: 100
18. Moulton: 100
19. Bennet: 100
20. Ryan: 100

21. Delaney & De Blasio: 100

23. Messam: 100
24. Williamson: 150



https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Buy Yang, sell the rest.

[eric82oslo]

The longest odds for each candidate at Oddschecker.com now:

1. Joe Biden - 2.5
2. Elizabeth Warren - 6
3. Bernie Sanders - 6.5
4. Pete Buttigieg - 7
5. Kamala Harris - 7
6. Andrew Yang - 17
7. Beto O'Rourke - 25
8. Tulsi Gabbard - 40
9. Cory Booker - 66
10. Amy Klobuchar - 66

11. John Hickenlooper - 100
12. Wayne Messam - 100
13. Eric Swalwell - 100
14. Jay Inslee - 100
15. Steve Bullock - 100
16. Tim Ryan - 100
17. Kirsten Gillibrand - 125
18. Julian Castro - 125
19. Michael Bennet - 150
20. Marianne Williamson - 150

21. John Delaney - 150
22. Bill DeBlasio - 150
23. Seth Moulton - 500
24. Mike Gravel & Joe Sestak - not even dignified with any odds yet


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

The longest odds for each candidate at Oddschecker.com now:


2. Elizabeth Warren - 6

8. Tulsi Gabbard - 40


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

After the first debate night, the odds of both Warren and Gabbard have shortened in positive direction.
Warren now stands at 5, Tulsi at 33. Positionwise, they're still second and eight though. Which means that right now, Beto remains 7th, Klobuchar 9th and Booker 10th, but it's still early and lots of time to change later today or later this week. At least the smart money seems to be on Elizabeth and Tulsi after the debate, meaning they probably won in many people's eyes. A couple of bookmakers have shortened the odds for Julián as well, although he still remains as long as 125 with one bookie.

On another note, Yang just surpassed 400,000 Twitter followers. An increase of about 30% from just two days ago.

[eric82oslo]

And Joe Biden is not topping the odds anymore!

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

So here are the currents odds from the 13 regular bookmakers featured at Oddschecker.com. (I don't include the three exchanges like Betfair, cause they are of a completely different nature althogether.)

1. Kamala Harris - 3.33
2. Joe Biden - 3.5
3. Elizabeth Warren - 4.5
4. Bernie Sanders - 7
5. Pete Buttigieg - 7

6. Andrew Yang - 22 (deep dive from his pre-debate 16)
7. Tulsi Gabbard - 33
8. Beto O'Rourke - 35
9. Cory Booker - 40
10. Amy Klobuchar - 66

11. John Hickenlooper - 100
12. Tim Ryan - 100
13. Seth Moulton - 100
14. Jay Inslee - 100
15. Steve Bullock - 100
15. Eric Swalwell - 100
17. Wayne Messam - 100
18. Julián Castro - 125
19. Kirsten Gillibrand - 125
20. Michael Bennet - 150

21. John Delaney - 150
22. Bill de Blasio - 150
23. Marianne Williamson - 200
24. Mike Gravel & Joe Sestak - no bookmaker still including them


Source: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

[eric82oslo]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

How do you do that?

[eric82oslo]

I can think of one fairly massive circumstance that has changed in Trump's favor: Mueller.

Has it though? Half the Democratic caucus in the House now support impeachment.

Yes, but it's now clear that Mueller won't deliver some devastating findings that would make Trump's removal a slam dunk.  Without something like that, the House may impeach, but the Senate won't vote to remove.

Mueller could have played video footage of Trump murdering a child and their puppy while admitting to it and bragging about it, and The Republican Senate would end up acquitting him. Conviction isn't the point anymore.

Trump has already murdered several children by proxy (along the border, in detention facilities and in Puerto Rico), yet Republicans still don't care.

[eric82oslo]

Over the last 3-5 days, Yang has almost caught up with Buttigieg in the odds market, there is now hardly daylight between them anymore. Which is pretty interesting all the time he was the leader in fundraising last quarter and is the clear darling of the ruling class, Democratic establishment and the majority of the Hollywood elite.

Longest odds for the top ten candidates right now:

1. Warren: 2.4
2. Biden: 2.75

3. Sanders: 7
4. Harris: 7.5

5. Buttigieg: 16
6. Yang: 20

7. Gabbard: 40
8. Booker: 50
9. Beto: 66
10. Steyer: 80


Since bookmakers on average make somewhere between a 20% and 35% profit on each bet (my best estimate), the actual odds for each candidate is somewhat lower than shown above. So for instance, the chance of Warren becoming the nominee right now is about 30%, for Sanders about 10%, for Buttigieg about 4.5%, for Gabbard about 2% and for Steyer about 1%. Likewise, the chance for either Warren, Biden, Sanders or Harris winning the nomination is around 76% as we speak.


All numbers: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

[eric82oslo]

Many betting sites are offering odds on who will win the general election, but the only one I’ve found offering Democratic nomination odds is Betway:

https://sports.betway.com/#/politics/us/us-presidential-election/985177_us-presidential-election-democratic-nominee-2020

Warren 28.6
Kaine 18.2
Booker 12.5
Cuomo 11.1
Clinton 9.1
M. Obama 9.1
de Blasio 6.7
Castro 5.9
Klobuchar 5.3
Duckworth 4.8
Harris 4.8
Sanders 4.8

7 out of these 12 possible candidates ended up running - not bad. And: Warren is still number 1, which is interesting - and strong. Some candidates have taken huge falls though, like Booker and de Blasio. And to a lesser extent Castro and Klobuchar. Biggest jump out of these 7 or 12: Sanders. Yet out of all the current candidates, Buttigieg and Yang have increased their chances the most of course.

[eric82oslo]

RCP has now officially launched their own betting odds tracker (maybe it was a while ago, as I haven't been visiting the site much lately): https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/

Their odds are a compilation and average from 9 different bookmakers.

Only 4 candidates have been leading the RCP betting odds average since they started their tracking on February 18. The betting leader has changed about 9 times:

From February 18 till March 11: Harris (up to 26.4% chance)
On March 12: Biden (20.6%)
On March 13: Harris (20.9%)
From March 14 till March 29: Biden (up to 23.6%)
From March 30 till April 29: Sanders (up to 22.9%)
From April 30 till June 29: Biden (up to 34%)
From June 30 till July 31: Harris (up to 34.2%)
From August 1 till August 14: Biden (up to 29.4%)
From August 15 till September 3 [today]: Warren (up to 33.8%)

So far, the betting odds leader has usually been ahead for either 2 weeks, 1 month or 2 months at a time. Odd and curious, yet true.

Here are the betting odds peaks for some of the other candidates so far:

Buttigieg: 18.3% on April 24
Beto: 18.0% on March 24
Klobuchar: 7.1% on March 8
Yang: 6.3% on June 27-28
Booker: 5.7% on March 7-10
Gabbard: 5.2% on February 18-19
Bennet: 3.5% on June 26 & 28

[eric82oslo]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

Biden should be way lower than 20% for sure. More like 4% if we're being realistic. He can't win literally anywhere outside of the Deep South.

[eric82oslo]

I don't think Warren being considered the most likely to win the nomination is unreasonable, but she should not be at 50% while Biden is at 20%.

Biden should be way lower than 20% for sure. More like 4% if we're being realistic. He can't win literally anywhere outside of the Deep South.

Primaries are not winner take all. Theoretically he could lose every state outside the South (as long as he kept them somewhat close) while winning the South in a landslide and still be the nominee.

I know, but we've seen how horrible he is at debating by now. He usually does well/decently in the first hour, just to completely lose it and ramble along in a Trumpian stream-of-consciousness way in the last hour or two. He was never any good at debating in 2008 either, but this time around he's taken it to a whole new low. If he gets any deeper now, he'll catch a glimpse of Titanic. Most black voters in the deep south aren't really paying much attention until January or February, so we'll probably not see his numbers dramatically plunge until somewhere around that time.

[eric82oslo]

I'm happy to see Yang doing better in the bookmaker odds than McCain was doing at this point in 2007.

[eric82oslo]

The people betting on Yang are smoking crack.  He has 0% chance of winning the nomination.  The Democratic establishment will do everything in their power to crush him and he doesn't have a path to the nomination with the necessary Democratic primary demographic groups.

Buttigieg has no real path to the nomination but I think he could easily be a convention dark horse forced on us by the donor base, so I don't know if I agree or disagree with his odds.

Warren is rising in the polls and looks like she might win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, thus picking up an absurd amount of momentum that could help her steamroll Biden - which is why she is given such high odds despite Biden still polling very well.

Sanders is probably being underrated at this point (the health scare could prove less consequential than it seems, his massive volunteer / donor base and increasing cache with minority voters are big positives) but he obviously has much less of a chance of winning than the other two.

DNC would much rather have a 44 year old Obama Presidential Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship awardee, who has been highly praised by Biden several times and who enjoys strong cross party support, as their standard-bearer, rather than a 78 year old democratic socialist with health issues, who during his entire career has refused to be labelled as a Democrat in any way and who resisted endorsing Hillary in 2016 until the day he realized that his entire political career would basically be over as we know it unless he came to his senses. The choice between these two candidates will be a very easy and obvious one for the DNC and the rest of the Democratic leadership/establishment. Stop fooling yourself into believing otherwise.