2020 Poll Hype Thread

[eric82oslo]

Winthrop SC poll and Monmouth national poll probably coming next week.

Yep, Winthrop’s poll is coming tomorrow. 2 big things to note here:

- This will be the 1st qualifying poll from Winthrop this year.

- This poll could qualify Steyer for the November debate and could give Booker his 3rd of 4 qualifying polls (anyone else who still needs qualifying polls for November is highly unlikely to hit 3% here).

Yang hit 3% in a South Carolina poll in June (Post and Courier), so it's possible that he could do it again and secure his 4th qualifying poll too. At the time that poll ended, on June 14, Yang was polling only 0.8% nationally according to RCP. Today RCP has him at 3.6%, four times higher.

[eric82oslo]

Why is this still stickied?  Monmouth NH Poll came out like two weeks ago and wasn't even that "hype" of a poll in the first place (Seltzer is the only poll worth getting hyped about).

That this is stickied rather than the Buttigieg campaign thread is just silly.

We had this in 2016 too, it will become more important next year, but it's basically just a heads up for people when polls are gonna come out soon.

But Buttigieg's campaign should be stickied.  He has the third-most money, fourth-best poll numbers, he's ahead of Sanders in Iowa and on an upward trajectory.

Downward trajectory, both poll-wise and money-wise. I guess what you're referring to is that he's passed Harris, but that's only cause she's fallen even deeper.

[eric82oslo]

Buttigiegs GE poll numbers in IA should be interesting ...

There have been no GE polls with him vs. Trump so far and he should be most known to voters in IA.

There have been several nationally, but probably not anyone from Iowa yet. Iowa Dems really seem to love him, so that should colour the results.

[eric82oslo]

Selzer is the best in Iowa. This poll should give us a good idea of how the Caucus is shaping up.

Even as this poll is released a little early, I expect a bounce for Yang - probably at around 2%.

The last Seltzer poll was quite a long time ago. Maybe two months ago or so?

[eric82oslo]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll.  

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

In the 2016 cycle, there were 7-8 polls released nationally and in the 4 early states between January 1st and 10th, however I don't believe all of them would be qualifying this time around since DNC's rules are so super strict when it comes to which polls they accept. We're probably talking somewhere in the 4 to 7 qualifying polls range before the deadline. Possibly more if CNN, the next debate moderator, decides to do a state poll in each of the 4 early states (not out of the realms of possibilities in my opinion, as most political journalists and commentators on CNN are starting to lean hardcore YangGang in the last few weeks, especially since the last CNN debate). And also because they want to stick it to MSNBC that they are fair and impartial, unlike them, NBC and Comcast. ABC could do a couple of extra polls too, due in parts to pressure from The View panel, where at least 2 out of 6 (Whoopi and McCain, possibly Abby Huntsman as well) are really hardcore YangGang as well.

[eric82oslo]

I hope something gets released next week, even though I’m not all too optimistic.

I think Yang, Steyer & Co. will definitely not be in the January debate.

Then Yang is gonna get even more CNN coverage, It's gonna quadruple or quintuple overnight. No doubt about it, you heard it here first.

[eric82oslo]

LOL:

D.N.C. Tells Pollsters To Do More Polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/us/politics/dnc-debate-polls.html

Maybe because everyone knows, and slowly realizes, that he'll make the best president. Final stop.

[eric82oslo]

Emerson poll of New Hampshire this evening. I know who I think will be leading!

Hopefully. Emerson's early state polling is sometimes surprising in a bad way.

Rather in an amazingly awesome way as we all know by now. Besides Morning Consult, it's more or less the only honest pollster out there.

[eric82oslo]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

[eric82oslo]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

Not wrong, right. Only people 50 or 60 years old and older are somewhat excited about his candidacy. The vast majority of those only support him because he has previous government experience and is a moderate and thus in their personal opinion is more electable than the other candidates, which obviously and of course is 100% wrong. If their thinking was actually right, then Trump should have lost in a 20% or 30% landslide in 2016. What most voters these days crave is someone with absolutely no government experience and whose thoughts and mind is situated as far from Washington D.C. as humanly possible.

[eric82oslo]

Just a reminder that none of the recent polls that came out as of today (Sunday) have the full impact of the Friday Debate on ABC. All of them include the 7th (Friday). Monday will be the day we really start getting a good idea of where things stand, and then the elections are Tuesday, so that's pretty convenient.

The only thing we know since many days ago, is that both Biden and Pete (don't tell the Austrian please) are going down fast, while Bernie and Klobuchar are the only ones rising.