Is Pennsylvania "in play"..?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

in play maybe, but I would still definately put it as leaning Kerry. It's worth pointing out there are a few suburban counties in PA that are overwhelmingly Republican in voter registration but voted for Gore in 2000. That's because the moderate suburban Republicans didn't want to vote for a right wing extremist like Bush (the same thing happened in a few NY and NJ counties). The same will probably happen for Kerry.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry will replicate Gore's support, but will gain among former independents and any new angry demographics, ie. college students, pacifists, Muslims.

You just brought up a very good point here. There are lots of religions in central Pennsylvania like Amish, Bretheran, Mennonites, ect. which are rather conservative but are pacifists. While many don't vote, I doubt they'll be voting for Bush this time. That's another advantage Kerry has.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

in play maybe, but I would still definately put it as leaning Kerry. It's worth pointing out there are a few suburban counties in PA that are overwhelmingly Republican in voter registration but voted for Gore in 2000. That's because the moderate suburban Republicans didn't want to vote for a right wing extremist like Bush (the same thing happened in a few NY and NJ counties). The same will probably happen for Kerry.

I don't think Bush was seen as an extremist back in 2000.

correct, but he was still too socially conservative for many suburban Republicans. Now that most do see him as an extremist, he'll do even more poorly among them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerry will replicate Gore's support, but will gain among former independents and any new angry demographics, ie. college students, pacifists, Muslims.

College students probably won't be voting in large numbers, and the war issue will revolve more on credibility & national security. Muslims I dunno... they probably aren't a huge percentage of registered voters. Although I do agree that Dean managed to bring some left-leaning independents into the Democratic party.

Bush is losing more cedibility and national security every day. We're seeing that this "economic recovery" is a sham because new jobs aren't being made as well. Therefore, Bush has practically nothing to run on but social issues, and he can't win an election screaming about how we must stop those evil homosexuals from defiling our sacred marriage and must amend the Constitution to stop them. Bush can't run an effective campaign anywhere outside of the Bible Belt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I live in Blue Earth County, in south central Minnesota. It voted for Bush rather marginally in 2000, with Nader taking 6%, more than twice of Gore's margin of loss. The sentiment here has moved to definately being more anti-Bush. The economic conditions in the outstate areas, especially the northwest, have gotten far worse, and this will definately hurt Bush. I think too many people overestimate the signs of the 2002 elections, since not a single Republican in a statewide race got over 50% of the vote. Only Attorney General Mike Hatch, a Democrat did with 54%. What I think happened is the media making a mountain out of a molehill with the Wellstone Memorial increased GOP turnout tilting some marginal races. The biggest issue though I think, is the Nader factor. Nader got 5% here in 2000, and he definately won't be doing that well this year. Also, the voters in suburban Hennepin and Ramsey counties are like the voters in suburban PA, NJ and NY, and while they voted very marginally for Bush in 2000, I think it'll flip and they'll vote for Kerry now because of Bush moving too far to the right on social issues. The most recent poll showed Bush: 41, Kerry: 43. Doesn't look like a resounding lead for Kerry, but keep these things in mind:

1) Undecideds break 2:1 against the incumbent
2) That was long before Kerry started campaigning here for Super Tuesday.

41 is a very weak showing for an incumbent, so I think it would closer to Kerry: 47, Bush: 42 if polled today. So I would have the state as leaning Kerry, although the GOP's going to try to win here and I'll have to put up with their nonsense.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

my friend in Pennsylvania is reregistering as a Republican to vote for Toomey in the primary. There is no way both Toomey and Kerry will win Pennsylvania, and Kerry's going to win it. The only reason Santorum won is because his opponent was a pro-life/pro-gun Democrat from western Pennsylvania, and Philadelphia liberals and socially liberal suburban Republicans refused to vote for him. But with Hoeffel will do excellent in Philadelphia, and suburban Republicans will take him over that nutcase as well. Toomey will get slaughtered everywhere except the "T".