The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

What? You once mocked me for saying that NJ-2 would be a tossup once LoBiondo retired.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

or this:

http://santorum.senate.gov/

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't insist Lamont was going to win one week before the election when he was down double digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

or this:

http://santorum.senate.gov/

Odd...




I found that on the Governor's website. Hatch looks a lot different since the campaign.

Also, Wetterling must be the only freshman in Congress without a website yet...

1-I didn't predict Wetterling would win the weak before the election
2-Hatch wasn't down by double digits, had trailed in every single poll, and had the race written off by the DNC and every pundit. Nor did he lose by 18 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Look at it this way Phil. No one would be mocking you for predicting George Allen would win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What do I know about Dinniman? I know he won 56-44 over some Republican you probably love.

Some Republican I probably love? I hardly know a thing about the lady that ran against him. I know we should have won but that's it.


 

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I have accepted the fact that there is no reason to worry for Gerlach especially after what I went through in 2006. I'm not afraid at all really. Let Dinniman run. It's going to be tough. Gerlach is more battle tested than Dinniman is.

Tell that to Democrat Harold Volkmer of MO-09 in 1996.  He kept on narrowly scraping by his Republican opponents.  Even in 1994 he won.  But his opponent, Ken Volkmer, came back in 1996 and beat him.  Everybody assumed that if he didn't lose in 1994 he never will.  Well, he did.

Another great example, check out this Minnesota State House seat:

2002:
Republican    RAY COX    8865   50.06   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    8819   49.81   
Write-In    WRITE-IN (TOTAL)    23   0.13   

2004:
Republican    RAY COX    11433   51.24   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    10847   48.62   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    32   0.14   

2006:
Republican    RAY COX    9233   49.80   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    DAVID BLY    9293   50.12   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    14   0.08

No doubt if Phil was Minnesotan he'd be saying in State Leg discussions "There's no way you'll beat Cox, forget it, he'll always get just over 50% but there is no way he can possibly ever lose."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Great example. BTW, his opponent was Kenny Hulshof. I think Gerlach is another Volkmer. Both Volkmer and Gerlach were out of touch with their districts.

Gerlach is a moderate to conservative member. He is fine for PA 6.

No doubt if Phil was Minnesotan he'd be saying in State Leg discussions "There's no way you'll beat Cox, forget it, he'll always get just over 50% but there is no way he can possibly ever lose."

I look forward to proving you wrong in 2008.

So what do you think about Ray Cox? Would've you been convinced he was unbeatable after 2004?

2004 was also a very bad year for Minnesota Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But this scenario is very similar to Gerlach's.

And on what issues is Gerlach moderate?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And on what issues is Gerlach moderate?

Gerlach has consistently held moderate views on taxes, stem cell research, the environment to name a few.

His entire campaign basically was "Lois Murphy wants to raise taxes".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

John Kline.

The old 2nd and 6th districts were basically wiped out in redistricting. The 2nd was completely carved up, most of it going to the 1st and 7th, a small part going to the new 2nd, where Kennedy's home was. The old 6th was basically split evenly between the new 6th and 2nd. Kennedy opted to run in the new 6th district despite not living there and it containing only one county of the old 2nd district (Wright). Luther opted to run in the 2nd against Kline again in the interest of not pitting incumbents together. He should've done the 6th, while more Republican, it contained more territory in his old district than it did of Kennedy's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Probably not, but he would've done better than that joke of a candidate we did put up. Luther should've ran in the 6th in 2006. He would've certainly done better than Wetterling and possibly won.

Kennedy's victory was a blessing in disguise though, without it he would've never launched his disasterous Senate campaign.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He's kind of a bit too washed up now. He ran for Attorney General under a strange set of circumstances. Basically we had a nominee who was really ethically challenged and it was discovered he actually paid for a private investigation of Mike Hatch for whatever reason and kept getting embroiled in scandal until he dropped out with literally less than 24 hours remaining before the filing deadline. He filed to run, as well as two other candidates, State Sen. Steve Kelley and Solicitor General Lori Swanson. Kelley won the endorsement, but Swanson ran a big campaign (with Hatch's assistance). Luther barely campaigned at all, and came in third. He only won one county (his home of Washington.)

The best candidate to take on Bachmann is probably the original guy who dropped out after Wetterling beat him at the convention, Elwyn Tinkelberg. He's the former mayor of Blaine (second largest city in the district), ordained United Methodist minister and pro-life and pro-gun. You probably need a pro-life candidate to take that district, which disqualifies Luther. (Those damn German Catholic areas around St. Cloud, the most annoying batch of swing voters...) St. Rep. Larry Hosch might be a good candidate too, he's a pro-life Democrat from that German Catholic area I mentioned who isn't even 30 yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I never made that post.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: PA-3, I believe Supersoulty said English isn't running again, so in that case the seat certainly is winnable and no doubt would be a target.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

6) It doesn't matter if the Senator cares, voters will.  Even if my friend is not the candidate, his being highly placed on anyone's staff is now a potnetial liability.  Lucky, Phil English does not care, but he is also retiring after this term.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This thread summarized:

Gerlach will be reelected.

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

Yes he will

No he won't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.pottsmerc.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16985181&BRD=1674&PAG=461&dept_id=164632&rfi=6

Lois Murphy's campaign was a disaster and she still got 49% of the vote.  Considering that Democratic turnout was low because of the Rendell and Casey landslides, Gerlach should have won by a bigger margin. He's still the vulnerable member in congress. This time he won't have a GOP majority willing to do anything to save him.

So how was it a disaster? She had the money, the people, the good year, the big names coming in for her. How was turnout low because of the landslides? Turnout in PA was 50% in 2006. 50%! Again, get your facts straight before you spew stupidity!

That's high? Turnout is usually well over 60% in Minnesota.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: Dent, we should run a pro-life candidate against him to give us the edge on that issue and whip him on economic issues. I just looked up his rating and National Journal rates him as one of the most economically conservative members of Congress.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But they won't, will they? Meanwhile, as things stand, PA-10 will be lost,

most likely true.

and if Giuliani is the GOP Presidential candidate Murphy would be in a lot of trouble in PA-8.

Which would require the religious and conservative base to nominate a guy who is more anti-gun than most Democrats, pro-partial birth abortion, lived with a gay couple and overall has a lifestyle that somewhat resemebles opebo's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Geographically PA-3 looks similar to the old PA-21, but the GOP altered it just enough to be safe for English and more Republican. Check out the 2000 numbers:

old PA-21: Bush 49.2/Gore 48.3
PA-3: Bush 51.0/Gore 46.6

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Suburban America will send Hart back. Suburban America will bring Fitz back.

LOL!

Ever heard of Ken Lucas?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW am I the only one who thinks this ad is retarded?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NId_e1oOPy4

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No, it's extremely stupid because it's so blatantly obvious how he edited the clip so much to make Murphy look clueless.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-15: Charlie Dent is an even better fit for this district than Pat Toomey. Dent is an economic conservative and a social moderate.

Neither Dent or Toomey are a good fit for the district at all. Murtha would be, or that guy from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area with the Polish name. Or as far as Republicans go, Chris Smith from New Jersey (how he gets elected there of all places is beyond me)