Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh wow, now Phil will hate Casey even more for spurning his beloved goddess!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh wow, now Phil will hate Casey even more for spurning his beloved goddess!

It just makes him even more of a joke and a liar.

I thought you'd be sympathetic toward him considering how the Clintons treated his father.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A nice article about Nutter's support for Hillary - http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_left_story/20080407_Nutter_s_national_debut.html

I can sum it up in a nutshell:

Nutter is a DINO who was supported by almost all Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's a good ad.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll admit that flier is kind of low but I have a tough time getting outraged about it now. The GOP does this kind of sh!t a million times more. I remember some lady in 2006 coming into my local campaign HQ outraged with a flier she found on her car after church that was on every other car in the church parking lot about how our State Senate candidate loved gays and abortion and thus you had to vote Republican. Would Phil react the same way to such a flier?

As for the last part, it sounds like Surra is supporting Obama because of his pro-gun legislation he's sponsoring (which I've never heard of, but whatever.) He can still have an opinion on federal legislation and choose his endorsements based on it, regardless of if he can vote on it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If it was truly targeted, I shouldn't be getting GOTV calls.

They're just assuming basically that every single person in your area is a Democrat and likely to vote for Obama. Which isn't too far from the truth in this case. In such an area it's not worth it to analyze it enough to take the 5 Republicans who live in it off the list.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well her's has to be. Just like the Republicans' have to be in the general election. If you have wards that are going to vote 80%+ for you no matter what, it's worth it to just try to get every single voter who lives there out rather than spend the time filtering the few non-supporters (especially as if, as in this case, the non-supporters aren't even eligible to vote rather than being likely to vote for your opponent.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama should win Philly, Montgomery, Centre and Delaware. Other ones to watch:

Dauphin (rural and mostly favorable to Hillary, but relatively high black population. If Hillary wins by double digits she'll win it but if she doesn't win it, she's probably not getting a landslide.)
Allegheny (good bellwether)
Bucks (another good bellwether, and a sign of how effective Obama has been at re-registering Republicans and independents. If he wins it by a decent margin the campaign has been very successful.)
Chester (A sign of if the Democrats here are as affluent as the county at large. Same thing about re-registration I said about Bucks too.)
Lancaster (Should be interesting. Can't make any predictions other than saying that. Thought of as conservative, but look at the 2002 Gubernatorial primary and 2006 Senate results...)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which hour polling places close tomorrow?

7PM EDT.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

Actually that isn't too terrible numbers for Obama. Probably equals a single digit loss.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Bradley Effect is the theory that many whites may not be willing to openly say they're voting against a black in a poll, but will do so in the privacy of the voting booth. So black candidates underperform their poll numbers.

Hasn't really happened this election though, except possibly a variation where people rather than lie and say they're voting for the black will respond undecided and then go ahead and vote for the white candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe that 37% of Pennsylvanians identify as neither Catholic nor Protestant (but apparently that's a strong Obama group).

It's getting rather common these days to identify as non-denominational Christian even if you don't attend a non-denominational church (actually that's not surprising since it is the most logical classification if you consider yourself a Christian but don't attend any church.)

I suppose it's the fact that it's strong for Obama that gets me. Elsewhere, Obama runs strongly among Protestants largely because most blacks identify as Protestants. But I can only explain those numbers by saying that, in PA but not elsewhere, blacks identify as "generic Christians".

The type of people I described should be strong for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The goofiest part of the regional breakdown to me is that Central/Northern PA is only 52-48 Hillary. Unless Harrisburg and Centre County make up a WAY bigger share of that vote than one would think.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama is winning 69% of support in Philly and 62% in the Philly suburbs...I missed the last few numbers and hes winning new voters 6 to 10 [right?] and Hillary is winning undecideds by the same number.

She talked too fast so im prob wrong on the last numbers...

62% in the suburbs is encouraging district-wise...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Stick with CSpan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yea, Obama is clearly doing much better amongst white males here than in Ohio.

Richer white men or Bob Casey, Jr.?

Probably a bit of the "macho" factor among blue collar types who don't want to vote for a woman. I suspect that's part of the reason Obama did so well among working class voters in Wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The fact that Obama is winning precincts (no matter how small) in those rural counties does encourage me a bit, after all they are homogenously very pro-Hillary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama takes the lead in Philadelphia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The fact that Obama is winning precincts (no matter how small) in those rural counties does encourage me a bit, after all they are homogenously very pro-Hillary.

Pennsylvania is not a place I would describe as homogenous, but ok...

Not the state at large of course, but these small rural counties are.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was expecting Luzerne to be much better for Obama. What happened?

You just don't understand Luzerne.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First results from Allegheny in, Obama leads.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm sick of these talking head idiots. TV off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Early Delaware county results have Obama narrowly ahead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL. 4 votes in Fulton county.