Especially amazing considering Hoeven is....what....enjoying like a 75% approval rating?
I think Hoeven is likely to take this seat. I hope not. But he'll be exceptionally strong and North Dakota Democrats have been tempting fate for far too long. I do think Hoeven would have a much better chance at Conrad's seat. But Dorgan would be a fool to consider himself safe.
I don't think Hoeven has shown any interest in going to DC in 2010.
I hope you're right. If true, that would be Hoeven-ly news. <cough>
JS, why do you think he wants the most competitive race of his career (as of now, he'd be fighting an uphill battle) so that he can be a severe minority in Congress?
I think North Dakota is substantially more conservative than their Democratic Senators would indicate. I'm basing this on a lot of what I have read from Larry Sabato. He often lists both Conrad AND Dorgan as perpetually in trouble. Perhaps that will change given the closeness of the Presidential there. But I am still not ready to call the state a D stronghold. And Hoeven is immensely popular.
Sabato is often wrong over things like this.
Pop quiz: How many times has Conrad or Dorgan lost a county since 1992?
Answer: 8. There's 53 counties in 6 races, so that means 318 contests, of which 310 have been won. Do the math.
And ND isn't what you're thinking of there. The 2008 results are a much more accurate representation of the state than the 2004 or 2000 ones.
