Dave's Redistricting App

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's something I drew up for Ohio:






OH-01 (blue): Removed the Butler County portions which were put in for a gerrymander. Driehaus probably could beat Chabot here even if he loses this year.
OH-02 (dark green): No point in trying to remove Schmidt, so she ended up with an even safer district.
OH-03 (purple): Could be trouble for Turner, though he's far from guaranteed to lose. Austria now lives in this district, but he'd be better off moving.
OH-04 (red): Pretty safe GOP seat. However we likely see a primary battle between Jim Jordan and Pat Tiberi, Jordan probably wins.
OH-05 (yellow): Even stronger GOP, Latta is actually removed from the seat, but he could easily move and win it.
OH-06 (dark teal): Both Wilson and Space are in this seat now. One of them probably moves to the new OH-12 though. The new seat is safer Dem.
OH-07 (gray): Pretty strong GOP. Austria could move here and win easily. If Kilroy loses there's a good chance that who beats her has a better chance in this seat, so a potential primary battle.
OH-08 (tealish purple): Still safe for Boehner.
OH-09 (cyan): Safe for Kaptur. Latta now lives here, but he's probably moving.
OH-10 (hot pink): Safe Dem. Kucinich might be worried though with new Democratic primary voters who aren't used to him.
OH-11 (light green): "Only" 49% black now, but safe Dem.
OH-12 (dark cyan): Open seat, likely either Space or Wilson move here. Wilson probably has a better chance. Pretty Dem leaning seat for either.
OH-13 (light pink): Sutton shouldn't have much trouble here. Might face LaTourette but would win.
OH-14 (brown): Tim Ryan and LaTourette would both live here. Ryan easily wins, LaTourette would have a slightly better chance in OH-13, but he probably should just retire.
OH-15 (orange): Now an urban Columbus district. Kilroy wins.
OH-16 (olive green): Safer for Boccieri.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's an attempt at Iowa:



Not sure what algorithm they use exactly, but it's pretty nicely drawn I think and would fit the general criteria. Interestingly this map could easily elect an all Dem delegation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Playing around with Michigan, I don't see any way to preserve two black majority districts. We'll probably be saying goodbye to Carolyn Kilpatrick. No tears here, the party needs less people like her and her repulsive son.

This is not good news for Republicans though, as from what I've seen all districts have to expand inward into Metro Detroit. This means Peters will likely end up safe, the black population of his district could easily double in share of the population. Schauer might as well, his district might very well end up taking in Ann Arbor. McCotter will also be more vulnerable, and Rogers could be in big trouble considering he represents a Republican district in a part of the world where there shouldn't be one. There's no reason Lansing should be represented by a Republican, the GOP shored him last time by adding a sliver of exurban Oakland county. That might be hard to maintain. Both likely would go down in an Obama vs. Palin election.

One upside for the Republicans is there probably isn't anyway to have the current Stupak seat avoid becoming more Republican. But that probably won't be a big deal if the Democrats get a good candidate in there, especially if the GOP bench continues to consist of only the type of loonies they currently are running.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I wasn't trying for a gerrymander, just to undo the current gerrymander and draw a "fair" map. My map avoided thin coast-hugging districts like that pink one, so that's probably why. Michigan won't have a Dem gerrymander anyway and will probably go incumbent protection, but it'll be interesting to see who ends up lost.

BTW I understand things were much different in 2002, but I was able to easily draw a sane Maryland map with 6/8 Obama districts. Maryland might have a less ugly map. Then again maybe not in the need to preserve individual incumbents.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

Good heavens. If one can divide the Baltimore area into three D districts like this, why does the current map have to look like it was designed by Benoit Mandelbrot on an acid trip?

Maryland had a 4-4 delegation before 2002. Bob Ehlrich represented a seat based around the Republican parts of Baltimore county, and liberal Republican Connie Morella represented a Montgomery-County based district. The Democrats decided to eliminate them both, so hence the current map in which Ehlrich's district was torn to shreds and Morella's was slightly altered to go into Prince George's county, and had the relatively Republican areas severed and attached to the 4th district.

Things are different today though, with Maryland's current population distribution it doesn't seem to be possible to draw a Republican seat similar to the one Ehlrich represented (I've tried with my GOP gerrymander experiment) because the 6th and 1st need to expand more into Baltimore County, while Chris Van Hollen is very safe in his new seat and doesn't need the crazy gerrymander (the old district was absolutely lost once Morella left anyway, it was 60% for Gore.) plus MontCo has moved left since then. One reason though why the map may not look this reasonable is the incumbents may end getting put together in such a map. You also have to wonder if they'll try to add more Democratic-leaning areas to the 1st to either shore up Kratovil or allow him to make a comeback in the most likely scenario that he loses.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah Ruppersberger and Sarbanes (who only live 5 miles apart) would both end up in the green district. Edwards would also end up in the light purple seat represented by Hoyer as she lives in southern Prince George's county. Edwards would have no trouble just moving further up north though. I guess Sarbanes would be most likely to move to Howard County, though he doesn't represent much of the district it is so Democratic it probably doesn't matter.

2 majority black districts and 6 strong Obama ones.

What are the %s for each district?

Blue: McCain 57% Obama 42%
Green: Obama 57% McCain 41%
Purple: Obama 84% McCain 15%
Red: Obama 62% McCain 36%
Yellow: Obama 72% McCain 27%
Dark Teal: McCain 58% Obama 40%
Gray: Obama 90% McCain 9%
Light Purple: Obama 57% McCain 42%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just realized West Virginia is going to be kind of tricky. WV-02 doesn't look that bad on a state map because of WV's odd shape, but it is really just a long string of counties. The other districts need to cut into it, and doing that without breaking the counties is more difficult than one'd think. It's not impossible but WV-02 will end up even more funky-looking.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not impossible that Mitchell could win the 10th district here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I decided to see what a GOP gerrymander of Minnesota would look like:





Districts:

MN-01 (blue): Doesn't change much, added a few more Republican counties. Walz could probably hang on but the GOP would have a far better chance if he left.
MN-02 (green): Had to take in northern Dakota county, so I tried to cancel it out with parts of Wright and outer Hennepin. Safe for Kline.
MN-03 (purple): Gains some DFL inner suburbs and a few exurbs though at the expense of other exurbs. Still likely safe for Paulsen.
MN-04 (red): St. Paul removed. Ramsey County is still DFL outside of it though, Washington is marginal, the north side is very Republican, probably a tossup.
MN-05 (yellow): Twin Cities combined, plus Richfield. Very very safe DFL, probably around D+22.
MN-06 (teal): Sort of combining some northern exurbs with northern Minnesota rural areas and Duluth. Much of northern St. Louis County removed, so the seat could go GOP, though not with Oberstar in it (though he'd live in Chisholm now.)
MN-07 (gray): Becomes more DFL. Collin Peterson is obviously safe and the GOP have much less of a chance of taking his seat once he retires, but they don't even bother to target him now and he votes with them most of the time anyway, so making him safer probably won't bother them.

BTW Bachmann is a major impediment in this scenario, she lives in the red district but couldn't win it. Unfortunately that likely means she wins the primary. In a rematch with Tinklenberg (who also lives there), Tinklenberg would win easily. The GOP would be best off just hoping for a wave year before 2020 to oust him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not exactly a Dem gerrymander. Gabrielle Giffords won't be too happy.





New Hispanic seat and keeps all incumbents happy. Which is probably what Arizona's non-partisan redistricting commission will aim for.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That district 11 is stretching the rules more than a little.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How many State House seats won by McCain can you squeeze out of Rhode Island? (They have 75 total). I haven't managed more than two. I'm not sure if more than two is possible.

A McCain State Senate seat seems impossible...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On the Atlas here. Town data and precincts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This app just made me realize that NC-06 and NC-13 rely on a rather "unique" definition of continguous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not really as even those would have to cross each other. The current setup is an obvious attempt to keep a chunk of Republican exurbia out of Brad Miller's district. And NC-12's long stringy shape makes things a bit more difficult. NC Democrats kind of drew themselves into a corner really though I'm sure they'll find a way to preserve all the Democratic-held seats when redistricting comes around. But it's kind of tricky.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's NJ. I did it partisan-neutrally as that's how the redistricting is done:




NJ-01 (blue): I made this the Hispanic seat as NJ-13 is lost. Becomes a bit more Hispanic actually. Safe for Sires.
NJ-02 (green): Doesn't change much. Safe for LoBiondo, a tossup if he retires.
NJ-03 (purple): Basically the old NJ-01, not changed much. Safe for Andrews, I'd like him to be primaried but I know in NJ that sort of thing doesn't happen.
NJ-04 (red): Seems I took out some of the more Democratic areas, though unintentionally. Most likely safe for Smith, though I don't understand how he's elected. Even Ocean County doesn't seem like the type of place to elect a pro-life zealot, or anywhere in NJ for that matter.
NJ-05 (yellow): Garret is as bad as Smith, but geographically it's hard to remove him. Still safe for him.
NJ-06 (teal): This one changes greatly. Probably a Republican seat now. I don't know where Pallone lives but he'd be better off running in the new NJ-07. GOP pickup.
NJ-07 (gray): Also changes greatly, losing the tail on the western edge, which is what kept it a Republican seat. Based on what I see about the territory that remains, Lance would probably be unable to win here. Pallone should run here instead. Dem pickup.
NJ-08 (light purple): Mostly the same though it looks like it's only 53% white now. Safe Dem obviously.
NJ-09 (cyan): By gaining northern Bergen county the seat becomes more Republican, but note Republican enough to be lost.
NJ-10 (pink): Still majority black.
NJ-11 (olive): A bit less Republican as parts of more moderate Somerset county are added, but Frelinghuysen or any other Republican should have no problem being reelected.
NJ-12 (grayish blue): Demographically it looks slightly more Dem. Rush Holt should be fine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well we all know "moving" isn't that hard. Smith finds some place in Ocean County and Pallone does in Edison or somewhere. Adler probably has to try against Andrews in the primary (wow I'd actually support Andrews there) and Lance is basically toast unless he can primary Garrett. There's no real way to preserve the current 6th and 7th districts though. Pallone has the least to worry about once he gets some shack in Edison or somewhere since that's the current Democratic base of his district. Lance probably has no conceivable way to stay in Congress though. Maybe he'll "move" to Monmouth and hope he can win the primary against a real local Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my try at NC:

Since NC will almost certainly be a Dem gerrymander I made all the marginal Dem seats stronger for Obama. I wasn't able to get NC-07 to be an Obama seat, very close now and I'm sure it can be done if I had more time, so that seat likely ends up an Obama one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why has no one tried splitting NC-11 into north and south? You could combine it with NC-10, split it halfways with Asheville split and end up with two Republican districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

7 is actually most likely a rather Democratic district. muon's map doesn't shift the PVIs around much because CO-01 is already 30% Hispanic, so you're just adding another 20% to the seat. The voters being "displaced" from it then are mostly liberal Denver whites, who are just as Democratic as Hispanics, so putting them into another district doesn't make it much less Democratic even if it is whiter.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

John Salazar could hold that third district though. And Markey might have an easier time in that fourth district than the current one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well it's used in the current NC map, so it clearly does count.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.

The VRA officially doesn't affect areas outside the South and Arizona, but the Justice Department could make a strong case for a Latino majority district in Colorado since Latinos are 1/5 of their population and Colorado has 7 Congressional seats. And Salazar isn't going to stay in Congress forever, so creating a Latino-majoirty district would guarantee long-term Latino Representation from Colorado.

The Justice Department though has no veto power over any Colorado map.

As it is though it woudln't affect much, DeGette would probably keep getting elected. Once she retired though it'd probably be favored to elect a Hispanic Democrat, though not guaranteed.