Delegates Tracker - Trump ahead.

[Senator Cris]

Trump 602 (24.3%)
Carson 122 (4.9%)
Bush 117 (4.7%)
Kasich 71 (2.9%)
Paul 68 (2.8%)
Cruz 56 (2.3%)
Huckabee 41 (1.7%)
Christie 30 (1.2%)
Rubio 27 (1.1%)
Fiorina 27 (1.1%)
Jindal 4 (0.2%)
Santorum 2 (0.1%)
Graham 1 (0%)

CD delegates 793 (32.1%)
RNC 165 (6.7%)
Not pledged 97 (3.9%)
No polls 249 (10.1%)

Needed to win: 1.237 (50.04%)



Full image: http://s18.postimg.org/srqfya31l/Delegates_Tracker.png

[Senator Cris]

Update with new IA and NH polls.

Trump 599 (- 3)
Carson 126 (+4)
Bush 120 (+3)
Kasich 71 (=)
Paul 68 (=)
Cruz 55 (- 1)
Huckabee 41 (=)
Christie 31 (+1)
Rubio 25 (- 2)
Fiorina 25 (- 2)
Jindal 5 (+1)
Santorum 2 (=)
Graham 0 (- 1)

CD delegates 793 (=)
RNC 165 (=)
Not pledged 97 (=)
No polls 249 (=)



Better version: http://s4.postimg.org/80ca9m5vx/Delegates_Tracker.png

[Senator Cris]

Huckabee has none?

Fixed.

[Senator Cris]

UPDATE:

With new OH poll in, Kasich lost all 63 delegates to Trump.

Trump 662 (+63)
Carson 126 (=)
Bush 120 (=)
Paul 68 (=)
Cruz 55 (=)
Huckabee 41 (=)
Christie 31 (=)
Rubio 25 (=)
Fiorina 25 (=)
Kasich 8 (- 63)
Jindal 5 (=)
Santorum 2 (=)
Graham 0 (=)

CD delegates 793 (=)
RNC 165 (=)
Not pledged 97 (=)
No polls 249 (=)



Better version: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

[Senator Cris]

Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.

I allocated only 10 CA's delegates to Trump: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

[Senator Cris]

Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.

I allocated only 10 CA's delegates to Trump: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

OK, so then for all the states that allocate by CD, you're only allocating the at large delegates and ignoring all the CD delegates?

Yes.

[Senator Cris]

UPDATE:

Trump 667
Carson 140
Bush 102
Paul 65
Cruz 53
Huckabee 42
Christie 31.25
Rubio 27
Fiorina 24
Kasich 11.25
Jindal 3
Santorum 2
Graham 1
Gilmore 0.25
Pataki 0.25

CD delegates 793
RNC 165
Not pledged 97
No polls 249



Better version: http://s4.postimg.org/b9zplf2hp/Delegates_Tracker.png

Trump:



Carson vs. Bush: