How did Menendez do in LD-25? It's my district and I know Clinton squeaked it, but my GOP assemblymen and senator were re-elected the year after, though by only 5 points, which is far closer than they're used to. Sherrill almost certainly carried the parts of the district in CD-11, but at the same time Sherrill was sweeping Morris County GOP county officials were re-elected handily. While the people here might like Mikie and national Dems, they still despise Trenton Dems, although the top-of-the-ballot Dem swings may start trickling down soon, so I'd call it Lean R, but closer to Likely R than tossup.
Voting history of LD-25:
2012 Pres: Romney +8.3
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +8.3
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +10.5
2013 Gov: Christie +42.0
2014 Sen: Bell +10.3
2016 Pres: Clinton +0.2
2017 Gov: Guadagno +6.3
2018 Sen: Hugin +6.1
The Republicans are clearly favored in this race, but there is clear potential for a Democratic upset, particularly if the activist infrastructure that developed around the Malinowski/Sherrill campaigns get involved. Interestingly, LD-25 was one of the few districts where the non-incumbent Democratic state legislature candidates outran Phil Murphy in 2017, which kinda confuses me. Does Lisa Bhimani have some kind of special appeal?
Hmm yeah looking at these numbers I'm tempted to call it Likely R, but you're right that Bhimani seems to get some extra mileage for some reason. I'm not really sure why, but she did seem to have a large sign/campaign presence, and her background as a doctor probably helped her, especially in comparison to the Buccos who have been representing the district since 1994. It will really depend on how well the Morris Dems machinery works (which is basically brand new as of 2018), and whether after two more years of Trump disgust of the national GOP will overcome distrust of the state Dems for the district's many educated white suburbanites. Certainly also helps that Bhimani already has experience working the district.
