Paul leads Conway by 5

[Whacker77]

Mason Dixon conducted this poll on the 18th and 19th.

Paul         48%
Conway   43%

http://www.kentucky.com/2010/10/20/1488287/kentucky-poll-shows-paul-with.html

[Whacker77]

This is the first poll from Mason Dixon in the state.  I have been in contact through email with a Republican who knows people in the Paul campaign and he told me yesterday new polling in the field right now shows Paul has benefited more than Rasmussen and Mason Dixon show.  Of course, that all hearsay though.  After having had a week to digest the news in the state, I do think Conway has suffered due to the add.

[Whacker77]

According their website, PPP is polling in Kentucky right now and likely will release their numbers tomorrow.  Nate Silver has noted what he calls a "house effect" with them since they began polling for Kos.  I wouldn't be surprised to see PPP have Conway tied or in the lead by a point or so.  I don't get the sense that's how the race stands, but I think a bit of rally the troops might be likely.  Conway held a conference call today with Wasserman-Schultz to say Paul is a misogynist.

[Whacker77]

It could be working, but I get the sense it's not.  I admit I could be wrong.  I think I posted this, but supposedly polling going on right now, not PPP by the way, has shown Conway is hurting from the ad.  Certainly, Paul must see it as a plus because he keeps bringing it up while Conway has gone underground since early in the week.  He's still campaigning obviously, but he's not been on TV as he was earlier.  He also said it likely the Buddha as will go away at the end of the week.

[Whacker77]

You beat me to that PPP twitter posting.  I think Conway may, and I stress may, soon be gearing up for his re-election as AG next year.  It was a Hail Mary.