Alcon
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,866
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« on: October 25, 2016, 07:01:39 PM » |
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« edited: October 25, 2016, 07:07:28 PM by Alcon »
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Geez, relax y'all. FiveThirtyEight's model puts Clinton at +3.6 in Florida. This thing has a +/-2.8% MoE, which means everything from Trump +2.0 to Clinton +9.2 is within the MoE. But we have plenty of evidence that shows Clinton has a lead of several points here, so complaining that this is within the MoE is silly. The vast majority of competitive state polling is within the MoE. That's because the MoE is generally about as big as the margin we say means a state is no longer competitive. It's not a "statistical tie" (shudder) when you have 10 polls that all aggregate to Clinton +3, even if an individual poll with Clinton +3 is solidly within the MoE.
This poll is consistent with previous polls, consistent with where you would expect Florida to be relative to national average demographically, and consistent with a body of evidence that shows Clinton as an overwhelming favorite to win, probably by something like +6 nationally. The overreaction to individual polls here gets tedious.
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