Washington state megathread

[Alcon]

I also think the Seattle Bag Tax map could be interesting.

[Alcon]

Wednesday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 104. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. North wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

^^ We are all going to die.

[Alcon]

R-71 needed a signature error rate under 14%.  So far the error rate is 12.31% after 11,502 signatures checked.  That is beyond the margin of error.  Caveats are that the number of duplicates probably increases later on, so if they are not checking randomly, later signatures could be reasonably expected to validate at higher rejection rates.

Even with the most liberal of caveats, chances are now good that this thing is making the ballot.  Which I am now upset by.  Grass is always greener.

Edit: Or maybe not, but I don't have time to read that, now.

[Alcon]

News...Reject rate on R-71 is up.  The SoS's office asserts that the rejection rate needs to be a maximum of 14.2%.  This math, reported by the mainstream media, is not correct.  They are dividing the total number of signatures by the maximum needed.  Referendum 71 has 14.2% "extra" signatures; however, they need an error rate of 12.4% and the Referendum appears headed to miss the ballot.

http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/080409.pdf

Washington Poll findings for favorability:

Obama - 87-12 (+75)
Gregoire - 78-21 (+57)
Nickels - 40-50 (-10)
Drago - 28-24 (+4)
Donaldson - 19-7 (+12)
McGinn - 20-8 (+12)
Mallahan - 21-3 (+18)

Nickels 23%
Mallahan 11%
Donaldson 10%
Drago 9%
McGinn 9%
Undecided 37%

Bag tax:

Yes 41%
No 55%

Run-off results:

Nickels 36%
Drago 33%

Nickels 33%
Donaldson 40%

Caveat: Small poll.

[Alcon]

This poll was just the City of Seattle, to be clear, in case that affects your vagina status

[Alcon]

what the hell sam reed's office

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I know why this is happening, but could they possibly have botched this one more?

[Alcon]

OK, so I've been doing some math about Referendum 71's chances.  (Warning: Math.)

In order to make it to the ballot, Referendum 71 needs 120,577 signatures.  The total number of submitted signatures was 137,689.  That leaves 17,113 invalidations needed to miss the ballot, or a maximum invalidation rate of 12.43%.  Don't believe any other number you read -- this is the ACTUAL under/over for validation.

So far, of those signatures, 35,866 (26.05%) have been checked.  Note that this contradicts with the total the state reports (35,296) for reasons I can't figure out, and will ignore. 

Now, the number of those ballots initially rejected has been 4,822 of these 35,866 (13.44%).  That, obviously, would be about one percentage point too many to qualify for ballot access.  However, due to the Secretary of State's double-checking, it has been determined that 759 of the rejected signatures (15.74% of total rejected) were, in fact, valid; another 34 (0.71% of total rejected) are pending.  We don't know anything about the rate at which the Penders will be accepted, so I will assume they are all rejected for the time being.

The current adjusted non-acceptances are 4,063 of 35,296 (a current invalidation rate of 11.51%).  This means Referendum 71 is making the ballot by the margin of about one point.  It also, obviously, means the rejection rate has some catching up to do -- from now on, the rejection target rate for Referendum 71 to miss the ballot is 12.74%.

In order to miss the ballot, 13,050 of the remaining 102,428 signatures need to be rejected.  Considering that so far at least 15.74% of initially-rejected signatures have later been accepted, that means that (unless checks are done the same day), you'll need to see a reported non-adjusted invalidation rate of about 15.12% daily, maybe more, to see this fail.

How's that looking?  Well, the non-adjusted rates from the last week showed rejection rates of 11.34%, 12.98%, 14.36%, 14.20%, 14.42% and 12.91%.  The good for Decline to Signers:  There are some days where the reject rate approached 15%, and the trend (generally) is toward higher rejection rates.  The bad news:  The trend doesn't appear linear, and even if it were, it probably wouldn't be enough.  So, the only thing going here for Decline to Signers is more likely to be with them than not.

The takeaways:

1. We have nearly three-quarters of the signatures left to check.  There is still good time for this to fluctuate, and if the initial 26% does not include later-day sloppiness, there is still some chance for this to fail.

2. There's some unclarity on how the "Master Checker" statistics are being reported.  If Friday's total (12.91%) included Master Checker adjustments, that indicates a stronger linear trend toward rejections.  If the total doesn't include Master Checkers, or even worse for Decline to Sign, if the Master Checkers weren't yet done on Friday's, there's no good news for Referendum 71 opponents (or neo-proponents?) there.

2b. Several sources report that the "master checkers" may not make decisions for several days.  The more cases there are of this in the above (could they have really completed Friday AM's checks before the end of the counting day?), the worse for Decline to Sign.  However, I'm not sure that the SoS is really talking about their process enough to make this anything more than an educated inference.

3. Unless the first quarter of signatures are being done in order, and they are meaningfully cleaner, or double signatures really increase big time, this thing is probably headed for the ballot.

4. I will probably know a bit more in a few days, either from anecdotal reports of the order of the count, about Master Checkers and their effect on last week (check for a bump -- or not -- Monday), and from the negligible Pending signatures that may very well decide this thing.

Stay tuned.

[Alcon]

While I'm waiting on news from the Secretary of State's office, SurveyUSA poll news:

Obama approval is down to +15%, about following national trends.

And in a poll of 579 likely and actual voters, far too many of whom are under 35 (we don't vote, guys, seriously!):

Nickels 22%
Mallahan 19%
McGinn 15%
Donaldson 11%
Drago 7%
Campbell 3%
Garrett 3%
Sigler 1%
Undecided 20%

Bag Tax:

Yes 43%
No 54%
Undecided 3%

Among those who claim to have already voted, Nickels (26%) leads Mallahan and McGinn (19% each).  However, Mallahan does substantially better among older voters than Nickels, and older voters will turn in more ballots -- eventually, they're slow.

Bag Tax trails 62%-35% among those who have already voted.  It fares similarly (64%-30% no) among the old.  Looks like it's headed for a decent failure.

Overall:  Good news for Mallahan, "eh" news for Nickels, bad news for McGinn, worse news for Donaldson, predictably awful news for Drago, and no one else matters in the remotest.

***

County Executive poll:

Hutchison 39%
Constantine 13%
Hunter, Jarrett 8%
Phillips 6%
Goodspaceguy, Lippmann, Lobdell 2%
Undecied 20%

Hutchinson's position is even better than it looks here:  while she receives a plurality in every age group, she does better with age, up to 47% among seniors.  Also troubling to Democrats is her 48% among the relatively menial number of King County residents who claim to have already cast ballots as of a few days ago when the poll was taken.

Still, though, 11% can be a heck of a lot to make up in King County.  (Although it should be noticed this poll skews horribly young for a Primary, it wouldn't be as bad in a General.)

[Alcon]

Yeah, it's gonna be Nickels and Mallahan. Not quite sure how the general will turn out though... but I'd give the clear edge to Nickels.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if an electoral freakout resulted in Mallahan/McGinn?  Turnout would have to be low and skew middle-aged crunchy, though.

Updated post with County Executive polling, by the way.  Hutchison's performance is impressive and this was before her record leaks headlined with how she got fired over calling out sexual harassment.  I'm honestly a bit surprised.

[Alcon]

Referendum 71 follow-up:

I asked SoS Spokesman Dave Ammons about whether the "Master Checkers" are done with Friday's batch, which is obviously really significant to trending and all.  He replied that he has no idea (in no caps, how casual!) but will probably ask Monday afternoon.

Anyway, I'll keep up on that.  Or Dave Ammons will.  Probably.  Maybe.

[Alcon]

Referendum 71 update -- Tuesday, August 11th
The answer to my question was what Decline to Signers didn't want:  The Master Checkers were, indeed, behind.

Today's update includes only signatures reviewed by Master Checkers, which accounts for the decline in total reviewed signatures.  I think this is a good idea.  There's not much to release information where some of the signatures are double-checked and some aren't.  The SoS's office still says this is "too close to call," because duplicates will increase.  They sure need to start increasing soon, or this thing is on the ballot.

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 140
Total checked so far: 33,214 (24.12%)
Today's rejection rate: n/a

Accepted: 29,572 (89.58%)
Pending: 12 (0.04%)
Rejected: 3,450 (10.39%)

Futures
Trend: -0.0089 (yes, the rejection rate trend is slightly down so far)

Progress toward ballot placement: 24.68%
Progress toward failure: 20.16%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.08%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.69%
...versus current daily rate: n/a

Edit: And here is a more statistically grounded version of what I was doing.  Hooray!  Same conclusion, though.  Unless there are some weird-ass clusterings going on, this thing is going to make the ballot.

[Alcon]

Strategies 360 (who?) poll of 500 voters (whatever that means):

Nickels 24%
McGinn 16%
Mallahan 15%
Drago 8%
Donaldson 6%
Undecided 26%

Nickels favorability is at 33%-53%

Bag Tax is failing 40%-53%

And for King County Executive:

Hutchison 31%
Constantine 13%
Hunter 6%
Jarrett 5%
Phillips 5%
Undecided 38%

[Alcon]

Referendum 71 update -- Wednesday, August 13th

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 213 (skipped 206, 207, 209 & 212)
Total checked so far: 48,299 (35.08%)
Today's rejection rate: 11.03%

Accepted: 43,147 (89.35%)
Pending: 21 (0.04%)
Rejected: 5,121 (10.60%)

Futures
Trend: +0.05

Progress toward ballot placement: 35.78%
Progress toward failure: 29.92%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.41%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.81%
...versus current daily rate: +2.38%

[Alcon]

Alcon, why don't we have Seattle mayor maps for past elections? Primaries and generals? Hmm!??!?!

Are there any that would fit in with shapefiles of major elections?  Precinct changes in Seattle happen constantly.

Turnout rate in King County is currently 9.8%, and 9.5% in Seattle.  That is godawful, especially in an all vote-by-mail election.

[Alcon]

Weird update -- Few signatures checked (seems like they were filling in some binders they skipped), but a somewhat higher rejection rate.  Seems like there were a few messy binders (206 had a 20% rejection rate -- not duplicates, though.)

Referendum 71 update -- Wednesday, August 13th

Checked so far
Last binder checked: 220
Total checked so far: 50,493 (36.67%)
Today's rejection rate: 11.53%

Accepted: 45,099 (89.32%)
Pending: 19 (0.04%)
Rejected: 5,394 (10.68%)

Progress toward ballot placement: 37.40%
Progress toward failure: 31.52%

Future rejection rate needed to fail: 13.44%
...versus current cumulative rate: +2.76%
...versus current daily rate: +1.91%

[Alcon]

Despite the uptick today, R-71 has yet to shown any evidence that the (apparently randomly-assembled) binders are returning rejection rates with enough unpredicted trending to justify not looking at it from a randomized model that assesses duplicatin rates.  And such a model currently has it making the ballot 9,989 of 10,000 times a simulation is run.

And now I'll shut the hell up about the statistics crap until that changes .

[Alcon]

King County Executive: Hutchison, Constantine, Jarrett, Phillips, Hunter, crazies

Yeah.  I think the interesting question is what percentage Hutchison manages.  I'd say her over/under for standing a chance in November is 40%.  That's stupid to predict in a primary but whatever.

Seattle Mayor: Nickels, Mallahan, McGinn, Drago, Donaldson, crazies (I have a feeling Drago may do better than we think though...)

Agreed.  I think McGinn may also do worse than he's polling.  Other possible freak-outs: Mallahan's high support among geezers gives Nickels a run for his money, McGinn's people don't turn out and Drago gets close to him (unlikely after the Stranger endorsement IMHO)

I look forward to Donaldson's amusingly strong performance around Garfield High School in the Central District.

Bag Tax: Fails badly

Part of me thinks low turnout is good for this thing...but my over/under is still definitely well within double digit failure.

Tacoma City Council, District 4: Campbell, Murphy, Marten

Yes (speaking of people who try really hard)

Tacoma City Council, District 5: Summers Kirby, Lonergan, Miles (Miles may surprise us though and wouldn't be shocked to see either Summers Kirby or Lonergan not make it. I would laugh endlessly if Summers Kirby didn't make it. She tries so hard.)

I could see this race being very, very close.  All three candidates have strong appeals to groups that are about 1/3 of the electorate.  Miles is unquestionably the biggest question mark.  He could be a distant third, but then again he could even win.  I think the former is more likely.

Tacoma School District, Position 2: Ushka-Hall, Van Vechten, Rickman, Bates, Thorpe, Blakeslee (Although Rickman and maybe even Bates could make it... I just don't really know about that second slot.)

Agreed.  I think Bates has a lot going for her (TNT, really personable television appearance) but I think on paper, she appeals to Ushka-Hall voters too much, and she lacks any campaign presence.  Rickman does too (lol) but she's an incumbent.  I wonder if she even realizes that she's in totally deep sh**t?  The Bates/Ushka-Hall split would normally put Van Vechten in first for me, but he's young and primary voters might not take him seriously for that.

Thorpe and Blakeslee are such hopeless candidates that the order there may switch depending on what the ballot statements are like.  "Former teacher" vs. "PTA lady" probably goes "former teacher," even if his ideas are older than sand.

The rest, I have no idea.  Who cares about Puyallup?

[Alcon]

SurveyUSA squeezes out one last poll.  The mayor's race continues to look fairly competitive:

Nickels 26% (+4)
Mallahan 22% (+3)
McGinn 21% (+6)
Donaldson 7% (-4)
Drago 7% (nc)
Campbell 3% (nc)
Garrett 2% (-1)
Sigler 2% (+1)
Undecided 20% (-9)

My guess is that Norman Sigler's late-term surge (100% support increase!) is because the voters have discovered that his middle name is apparently Zadok.  Awesome.

Among early voters, the race is even more competitive.  Nickels (27%), Mallahan (25%) and McGinn (23%) are all within MoE of each other.  I would now put the odds of a Mallahan upset at about 1-in-3.

The Bag Tax continues to look dead in the water, although maybe not as dead as a week ago:

Yes 45% (+2)
No 52% (-2)
Undecided 3%

Oddly, despite a huge split by education level (college grads support 53-43 while non-grads oppose 26-72), this is doing worse among those who claim to have voted already: it's down 42-55.  Likely voters with uncast ballots oppose by only 47-49.  That's the power of seniors without college degrees, and exactly why this was dumb to put on a primary ballot.

No Exec poll, for whatever reason.

Last night, Pierce County turnout stood at 15.8%, King County at 16.7%, and Seattle at 17.4%.  There was a small line at my polling place, which is weird but probably just a coincidence.

[Alcon]

Polls are closed.  Should be 15-30 minutes before we get the first results.

I'm guessing no one cares about anything but King and Pierce, and if you do too bad because I don't!

[Alcon]

Hutchison 37%
Constantine 22%
Jarrett 12%
Phillips 12%
Hunter 11%

Woah:

McGinn 27%
Mallahan 26%
Nickels 25%
Donaldson 9%
Drago 8%

Mike O'Brien leads along with all of the incumbents.

Bag tax is failing 42-58.  I'm glad I predicted it to do a little worse than expected now even if I expect that to close.

[Alcon]

He's in third! He could actually not even make it out of the primary!

Who wins a Mallahan vs. McGinn general?

I'm inclined to say Mallahan...although that would be a weird race, it's like Old People/Business Types vs. Greens.  Except McGinn does have his weird suburban-Republican oriented viaduct position.

Pierce County took forever in 2008, right?

Note: Early votes tend to be loaded old + partisan Democrat.  I don't know what significance that has here, other than that I think Bag Tax will narrow.

[Alcon]

While we're waiting on Pierce and King County's 10 PM batch...uh...

Burien will be annexing a chunk of Highline/White Center.  That's passing 59-41.  One of the biggest annexations in a few decades.

And in Walla Walla news...

[Alcon]

I know the primary trends old but his platform was BRINGING BACK CURSIVE

wtf.

And I thought that race would be a tough decision

asfsdfda

[Alcon]

Laura Grant is actually hanging on there at 46% in the 16th.  Obviously that's going to be a tough race, but that's a healthy enough result.

jerry f**king thorpe.  tacoma school board is doomed

[Alcon]

The 15th is always extremely Republican legislatively, especially in primaries.  Which is kind of weird, because its Democratic zones (Mexi-towns, Columbia River Gorge) are generally pretty hackish.

Isn't the no-name guy also the one with an address in White Salmon?  He also owns a company that makes a crappy spyware product.  Looks like he advanced on the basis of not being the other Democrat in the race.

No wonder the GOP % is so high.