Germany: Dispute over immigration between CDU and CSU mounts

[President Johnson]

The dispute over immigration between the CDU and CSU mounts these days. The main issue is whether to reject certain asylum seekers at the German border. Large parts of the CDU and especially Merkel want to negotiate an agreement within the European Union, but the Bavarian CSU and Interior Minister (responsible for homeland security and not comparable to the US Interior Secretary) Horst Seehofer wants to reject asylum seekers who were already admitted to another EU country or rejected in Germany before.

The parlamentary groups of both parties today held separate crisis meetings, which is very uncommon because they form a joint caucus together. Seehofer now treatens to order the federal police to reject asylum seekers. That may happen on Monday if the CSU chairboard agrees to the plan (very likely to happen). Merkel asked for two weeks to negotiate with EU partners, but Seehofer and his allies refuse to wait that long. If he issues such an order next week, Merkel de facto has to fire him what would mean the coalition is done. If the CSU leaves, CDU+SPD fall short of a majority (two seats are missing).


Additional information: The Guardian: Merkel coalition at risk as talks on refugee policy falter


Although I'm a member of the SPD, I largely agree with Seehofer because it is just common sense.

[President Johnson]

Merkel should just resign now.

She's so worn out by now and doesn't even have her government under control anymore.

Add this to the fact of increasing corruption, incompetence and security-related scandals such as the BAMF one or the frequent killings and rapes by immigrants that she allowed in.

Her time is up. She's just limping along for the next 4 years because she's power-hungry and glued to her seat ... and it's painful to watch.

I agree, but who replaces her out of the CDU/CSU ranks? AKK? Hell, she's so boring and essentially the same type as Merkel. Spahn is an empty suit with not much of a record except for making speeches. And Uschi has shown that's incomptent. A guy I respect is Armin Laschet, but he's not much of an option since he just got in as minister-president. Seehofer himself at least would be an interesting but temporary solution until the next election in 2021. I'd also be ok with Peter Altmaier though.

[President Johnson]

I'm assuming nothing will happen and Merkel will remain Chancellor but some concession to Seehofer.

That's boring though.

What's more likely, Seehofer launching a coup within the Union and becoming Chancellor.

Or a new election in which the CSU runs independently?

The first scenario would be nice because it would get Merkel out, the second would be nice because an independent CSU could serve as a more socially acceptable AfD.

The SPD is NOT electing Seehofer as chancellor, neither would large parts of the CDU. If he orders the federal police to reject asylum seekers against the chancellor's will this will happen: Merkel fires Seehofer (she has the power to do so), the CSU leaves the cabinet and the Greens join the coalition to avoid new elections, which would end in a total disaster for the governing parties.

[President Johnson]

LOL, the President of the United States now gets involved:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1008696508697513985

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1008696952559734787


But the respsonse of North-Rhine Westphania Minister-President Armin Laschet (CDU) is great:

https://twitter.com/ArminLaschet/status/1008699277479174144


"So sad. Now the US President explains us the 63 point masterplan that wasn't even submitted yet"

[President Johnson]

German-Austrian-Italian far rights getting together, may a the "axis" would be a good name for their gathering

Maybe they could also wear armbands to indicate their friendship. With a symbol that means much to them. #justgirlythings

You might be on to something:

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https://www.politico.eu/article/austrias-sebastian-kurz-wants-axis-of-willing-against-illegal-migration

Well, I'm not a fan of Mr. Kurz, but the idea itsself isn't bad. It's much better to spend a smaller amount of money for decent refugee camps outside the EU were they can live in their cultural environment, rather than bringing everyone in. And it's not just crime, it's also housing (not enough space, prices are through the roof etc.) and all the bureaucracy at every front (eduction, heathcare etc.).

[President Johnson]

I hope Germany gets a no confidence vote like ours and an SPD minority government propped up by everyone except CDU and AfD

SPD-Linke-FDP? It would be a glorious government. Bourgeoisie and proletariat unite! The real enemy that separates the classes from each other and prevents class peace is the petty bourgeoisie!

SPD-FDP-Greens would be great (actually I'd like a SPD/FDP coalition because the Greens totally want mass immigration from the Middle East, among other stupid things), but it's not happening. It's more likely the CSU gets out of the cabinet and the Greens join. And if that was to happen, it would be the ultimate nail in the SPD's coffin. I think Merkel would like such a CSU-Greens exchange.

[President Johnson]

How likely is a split at this point? It doesn't look like Seehofer is backing down, and it remains to be seen whether or not Merkel will.

Possible, but not very likely. The CSU's first priority is maintain their absolute majority in the Bavarian legislature. That's even more important to them than Berlin. They know if the CDU gets into Bavaria, they will never regain that position. However, I think the one-party government will be gone in the October election anyway and probably never come back any time soon.

[President Johnson]

So, the CSU is expected to announce its decision on the agreements Merkel got from the last EU summit almost any time now. Horst Seehofer will give a public statement within the next two hours. Over the day, the leadership of both the CDU (in Berlin) and CSU (in Munich, still ongoing) met for internal consultations. From behind the scenes, Seehofer and his inner circle are reportedly not satisfied at all. A face-to-face meeting between Merkel and Seehofer that took place yesterday went nowhere. Seehofer is quoted with a phrase like: "I went the long way to Berlin and Merkel didn't move at all", calling the dialogue "useless" or "with no effect".

Tagesschau reports that the CDU leadership stands firmly behind the chancellor after their meeting today, while the CSU leaders strongly back the interior minister. As it looks like now, a confrontation is almost inevitable and even Merkel described the situation as "very serious".

Now everyone is waiting for Seehofer's statement in Munich. There was some speculation over the day he might resign, but I doubt that actually happens. However, he may order the border patrol to reject certain asylums seekers tomorrow and thus causing Merkel to fire him, what would be the end of the governing grand coalition.

For further information: Tagesschau Live Blog (in German)

[President Johnson]

Wow, Seehofer reportedly offered his resignation as CSU leader and interior minister. But he still didn't make a public announcement.

[President Johnson]

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Ah, he's just like me I suppose.

He said Hartz IV did not mean poverty. For that statement he was harshly criticized by the media.
He is also pro-life; after a female doctor was fined 6,000 € for illegal advertising for abortion (she wrote on her websites that abortions belong to her catalog of services), Spahn approved of that sentence and he said there was no need for him to change that law.
He also disapproves of euthanasia. He even doesn't want to give critically ill patient lethal drugs.

Is he that socially conservative? Seriously? I automatically thought he was more socially liberal because he's gay lol.

He's definitely more conservative than Merkel on social issues. I doubt he'll ever be chancellor. If Mutti doesn't survive this (doubt that), she would be replaced by AKK or even Wolfgang Schäuble. My first choice from the CDU ranks would be Armin Laschet and Peter Altmaier second. Norbert Lammert is also decent man, but probably not avaiable.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: After hours of consultations, the parties reportedly found an agreement and Horst Seehofer will remain in office after an earlier report quoted him with the phrase "I am not going to be fired by a chancellor, who is only chancellor because of me".

The parties agreed for so-called transition camps near the border for the asylum seekers Seehofer wanted to reject at the border. The SPD won't like it, but they will ultimately agree since they have no leverage and nothing to gain from a break-up of the coalition.

[President Johnson]

Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely survive until the end of her current term with this agreement, but 2021 could very well see the Alternative für Deutschland forming the next government at this rate.  Or at least playing a key part in it.  

Well, I'm not so sure. Seehofer already threatened to "reopen the issue" if there is no European solution implemented. I guess the guy, at 69, has nothing to lose anymore. If the Bavarian election in October ends in a disaster (< 40% for the CSU), not only Söder will be damaged, he'll also get the blame as current CSU leader and has likely to step down as such. That's probably the reason CSU Parliamentary Chair Alexander Dobrindt urged Seehofer not to resign last week, so that he himself can run for CSU leader after the election disaster.

[President Johnson]

Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely survive until the end of her current term with this agreement, but 2021 could very well see the Alternative für Deutschland forming the next government at this rate.  Or at least playing a key part in it.  

Well, I'm not so sure. Seehofer already threatened to "reopen the issue" if there is no European solution implemented. I guess the guy, at 69, has nothing to lose anymore. If the Bavarian election in October ends in a disaster (< 40% for the CSU), not only Söder will be damaged, he'll also get the blame as current CSU leader and has likely to step down as such. That's probably the reason CSU Parliamentary Chair Alexander Dobrindt urged Seehofer not to resign last week, so that he himself can run for CSU leader after the election disaster.

Why don't we just bring Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg back ? I believe in second chances!

It's been rumored for a long time, but he has shown little interest so far. I more wish Sigmar Gabriel was still the SPD leader and foreign minister