Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[President Johnson]

What's Tester's shot to hang on?

[President Johnson]

Imagine of Hilldog was president now. The senate would be a disaster. Tester, Brown, Manchin and maybe Stebenow would be gone. Possible Kaine's old seat as well.

However, I think there is a chance the Republicans keep the senate in 2020, even if a Democrat ousts Trump.

[President Johnson]

Florida isn't called yet, but I guess Nelson is done?

[President Johnson]

Looks like Dems will win the House Popular Vote by around 4% which is not the 6%, 8%, 10% etc figures we were hearing. It it less than 2006 & 2008. So this isn't a wave. This is like only 2% better than 2016.

If Dems had done 3-4% better like it was expected (D+7/8), probably 30-35 more House seats would have been in play & FL/AZ would have been easy wins with perhaps an upset in Texas ! Maybe we would have had a 51-49 GOP Senate even if ND, IN & MO were gone.

4-5% certainly isn't a wave.  What is shocking is Florida went 5% to the right of the National PV.

To a degree yes, but Trump's approvals are relatively high in Florida compared to other key states. As I said earlier, I think he keeps the sunshine state in 2020 regardless of the national outcome (unless there is a 2008 Obama style victory for Democrats).

[President Johnson]

This is when they stopped counting MT and why Tester is likely gonna win:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1060120486095536129

Please let this be true. I don't want to lose beautiful flawless #populist Tester. Actually this shouldn't be so close; I mean Steve Bullock won fair and square in 2016.

[President Johnson]

Per CNN: Bill Nelson officially requesting a recount in his race against Rick Scott.

I think the difference of about 34,000 votes is too wide to turn this. Another one of the countless Florida heartbreakers (president 2000, governors 2010, 2014, 2018). The only one out of the uncalled senate races with a shot is Tester.

[President Johnson]

Is there going to be a recout in Texas 23? Gina Ortiz Jones trails Will Hurd by just 0.2 or a few hundred votes. Maybe she can still get this?

[President Johnson]

Yes, JON TESTER is reelected! Thank god, Tester lives. #populist