ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[IceSpear]

Those around in 2017 know that I've always been bearish on Heitkamp's chances, but I always thought this would at least be close. Now, it's looking like she could actually get Kirk'd.

Wouldn't even surprise me if she got Blanched at this point. But yeah, I'm finding it hard to predict Cramer's victory margin.

[IceSpear]

You guys are seriously using GOP internals for approval numbers? Come on. Give me something thats actually concrete.

The FOX poll gave her a 48-49 favorability rating. Considering her no vote on Kavanaugh as well as the sexual assault thing, it wouldn't be surprising at all if she's underwater now.

[IceSpear]

How to Blow a Winnable Race 101

Hopefully you’re talking about Cramer since this race was never winnable for any Democrat. There’s no D base here. Remember the good old days of Likely D ND because of retail politics? LOL, good times

If Heitkamp loses, she’ll have no one to blame but herself. This race was definitely winnable for her, especially in a Democratic wave year.

Her fatal mistake was not retail politicsing hard enough.

[IceSpear]

It's because Heitkamp voted No on Kavanaugh.

No, it's because North Dakota is one of the most Republican states in the country.

Mostly the second one, with a pinch of the first, and a small helping of the fact that she just got massive amounts of negative press for accidentally publishing the names of sexual assault survivors without their permission. It's funny Atlas thought wouldn't matter. Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans, especially in red states.

[IceSpear]

Have Kevin Cramer whacked and hope that voters don't want to vote for a dead person.

[IceSpear]

Kevin de Leon
Mike Braun (Nate Silver's junk model unironically disagrees)
John James
Karin Housley
Matt ROSENdale
Jacky Rosen
Dean Heller
Bob Hugin
Jim Renacci
Lou Barletta
Beto O'Rourke
Patrick Morrisey
Leah Vukmir
Walker Stapleton
Bob Stefanowski
Ron DeSantis
Ben Jealous
Bill Schuette
Jeff Johnson
Molly Kelly
Steve Pearce
Knute Buehler
Allan Fung
Barbara Comstock
Keith Rothfus
Pearl Kim
Mike Coffman
Erik Paulsen
Jason Lewis
Kevin Yoder

Feel free to add your own!

[IceSpear]

Democrats are held to a far higher standard than Republicans, especially in red states.

Which is why Menendez will lose while Moore won.

What is it with Republicans comparing corruption with pedophila?

Because Menendez is accused of pedophilia as well?

By right wing blogs with no credibility. There's been no mainstream exposure for this accusation. 90% of voters probably don't even know about it. It's deliberately obtuse to compare that to Roy Moore's pedophilia which nearly every single person who voted in that election knew about, and which nearly a dozen women publicly came forward and accused him of.

[IceSpear]

What about Donna Shalala?

Shalala is such a Weak Candidate™ that it would be the 438th seat to go Democratic. Even Heitkamp has better odds than Shalala.

[IceSpear]

Cramer is favored because Heitkamp is voting like a Senator from Vermont, not North Dakota. Unfortunately for her, she’s also not a #populist obese male with an accent or a "folksy" appearance, so swing voters will be less indulgent to her than Tester or Manchin.

If only she had a flat top she might still be in this.

[IceSpear]

I'm surprised that the tariff hit to farmers hasn't helped Heitkamp more. The only way those tariffs will get reversed is with a Congress that is actually willing to disagree with Trump on policy instead of being afraid of disagreeing.

Nobody votes based off things like tariffs, despite all the hype.

[IceSpear]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

How exactly doesn't it make sense? Due to the Ebsy Mind Model of adding 10 points to the Democrat in any poll?

[IceSpear]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

How exactly doesn't it make sense? Due to the Ebsy Mind Model of adding 10 points to the Democrat in any poll?

Blanche Lincoln was an incumbent who went down in a national wave election against her party. That is clearly not happening here. However, not all of us can be as tedious as you, thankfully.

Uh, so what? "Blanched" has always just meant an incumbent losing by a massive margin. Last time I checked there's no qualifier to the term that it must take place in a certain political environment. You might as well say it doesn't make sense because the election isn't taking place in Arkansas, or because the Republican's last name starts with a C rather than a B.

Speaking of tedious, will you ever stop doing your best Baghdad Bob impression whenever something shows even remotely bad news for the Democrats? It's blatantly obvious Heitkamp is going to lose, I don't know why you insist on staying in denial until election day. But you do you I guess. It sure worked out well for you when you insisted the Comey letter wouldn't matter.

[IceSpear]

There is such a thing as overcorrection.

You should tell that to Nate Silver, who continues to vastly inflate Heitkamp's chances just to overcompensate for calling the race wrong in 2012.

[IceSpear]

Imagine how badly Heitkamp would lose if Hillary was President.

We might've needed a new term.

[IceSpear]

The Blanche Lincoln comparison doesn't actually make any sense, so it makes sense that IceSpear and the usual suspects have latched onto it.

It actually does make sense, given that Heitkamp, like Lincoln, had her chances overhyped on here because of her status as an incumbent. We now have polls showing her trailing by a wide margin, and it will be difficult for her to overcome that gap, bar a serious polling error on par with 2012.

Were you here in 2010 such that you have any idea what people were saying about Blanche Lincoln at the time? I know I certainly wasn't.

I was, and no one was hyping her up or thinking she had a chance.

So Atlas was less hackish in 2010?

[IceSpear]

Another day, another barrage of Tweets telling us how well Heitkamp is doing in private/Democratic/internal polls and that she’s actually leading here. What’s new?

Yet they never seem to release them.

[IceSpear]

It seems to be that all of the polls are in agreement on some factors:
1. Heidi will win almost all Dems
2. Heidi will win around 15-20% of Indies over Cramer
3. Heidi will win 10-20% of Rs

Where the conflict stems is the percentage of each group. Fox says around 50% Rs, 20% Is, and 30%Ds, and the new pollster saying 60%Rs, 10%Is, and 30%Ds, and with the 2012 pollster saying 45%Rs,20%Is, and 35%Ds.

Dude let it go, she's done

No surprise a Republican hack wants the Democrats to concede all the competitive races.

This isn't a competitive race. Didn't you just say yesterday it was safe R? lol

[IceSpear]

So Atlas was less hackish in 2010?

Atlas was, is and will always be hackish.

True, but I have no doubt that if the 2010 Arkansas Senate race took place today we'd have at least a few posters insisting Blanche still had a chance. So if BRTD's memory is accurate, then Atlas must have been less hackish back then.

[IceSpear]

So Atlas was less hackish in 2010?

Atlas was, is and will always be hackish.

True, but I have no doubt that if the 2010 Arkansas Senate race took place today we'd have at least a few posters insisting Blanche still had a chance. So if BRTD's memory is accurate, then Atlas must have been less hackish back then.

I am sure that if you were to go back to the 2010 Arkansas Senate race threads, you'd find a few posters delusional enough to think Blanche had a chance.

For example: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=125194.75

LOL, nice find. So BRTD's memory was wrong. Somehow I'm not surprised.

I find it interesting that Rasmussen did a monthly poll of AR around the 17th, except in September.

I think Lincoln's numbers have improved but they just don't want to admit it. 

I believe the Ispos poll indicates that Lincoln has risen from below 30 to just at 40.

The Talk Buisness poll was methodologically unsound. 

Of course, Arkansas is a very Democratic state, and being under 40 for any reason is a bad sign if you're a Democrat. 

Lincoln's 1998 opponent, John Boozman's brother, was a one-man gaffe machine.

The only way Lincoln can win is A. Boozman has a big gaffe and B. Dixiecrats come back to Lincoln. 

LOL, this person unironically sounds like some of our current posters.

[IceSpear]

Mary Landrieu is campaigning for Heidi in several Eastern and Central cities in ND this week. Seems like an incredibly odd choice for a campaign surrogate, but what do I know.

Landrieu lost by 16 points four years ago. If the polls hold, Heidi Heitkamp may very well be joining her in less than two weeks.

Actually she lost by 12, which believe it or not was viewed as a fairly good result for her at the time, since most people expected her to get Blanched after Dems got BTFO in 2014.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2014&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2

[IceSpear]

Heitkamp doing retail politics to save her seat:

https://www.kvrr.com/2018/10/28/senator-heitkamp-drums-up-support-for-campaign-through-door-knocking/

The most surprising thing about that video is that there's a black person in North Dakota. Combine that with heavy hitters like Tom Udall going to campaign for Heitkamp and the retail politics, and I think this race needs a...

RATINGS CHANGE: Safe R -> Lean D

[IceSpear]

Well, I thought Heitkamp was doomed, but Joe Biden and Heidi Heitkamp's brother told me she wasn't, so I guess that's that!

[IceSpear]

Cramer up 9 in the new poll. LOL at everyone who thought Heidi still had a chance because Joe Biden, her brother, and other random people on Twitter said so.

[IceSpear]

It's crazy that she still did better in Cass County than she did in 2012 even while getting semi-Blanched. These national trends are even hitting the small urban areas like Fargo.

Same for Montana, where Tester basically owes his life to the "urban" areas of the state.