2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[IceSpear]

NC-2: Civitas has Coleman +1.

Now this is what you call a SHOCK POLL. Every pundit has this as likely R, and Civitas is a Republican pollster...

[IceSpear]

NC-2: Civitas has Coleman +1.

NC-02 has been a Tossup from the start, and it's surprising that more people haven't caught onto that fact. Hopefully the pundits will realize it (who am I kidding, they won't).

But Charlie Cook told me it is just as competitive as Jim Costa's seat.

[IceSpear]

FOX polled the North Dakota House race as well:

Armstrong (R) 48
Schneider (D) 34

Not bad for Dems by North Dakota standards, but considering even Heitkamp is struggling, probably outside the realm of possibility.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

Are you seriously implying Steve King is as safe as Jose Serrano?

I mean, maybe he's at 99.9% likely to win as opposed to Serrano's 99.9999999%, but we're kind of splitting hairs at that point.

[IceSpear]

This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.

If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.

A 4-0 Dem Congressional delegation is not out of the question. Steve King could lose.

LOL. Classic Solid.

I mean, Steve King could lose. Highly unlikely, but certainly not out of the question.

In the same way that Jose Serrano and Randy Naugebauer could lose, yeah.

In the same way that Jim Oberstar and Solomon Ortiz could lose, yeah?

The PVI for those districts was D+3 and R+2. Clearly potentially vulnerable in a wave.

King's is R+11, and even that probably understates it considering how hard and fast it is trending to the right. Of course, Dems can win R+11 districts if lightning strikes like in PA-18. The thing is, Dems only barely won that one by the skin of their teeth despite having a great candidate running against a dud candidate in an ancestral D area that still had a Democratic registration advantage. Compare that to this district. Heavily Republican with a Republican registration advantage. Now compare the candidates. I don't know who J.D. Scholten is (which says something in and of itself, considering I'm a US Election Atlas Dot Org poster with tens of thousands of posts), but something tells me that he's not Conor Lamb quality. Conor Lambs don't grow on trees. And King is the exact opposite of lame boring dud Rick Saccone. Racist IA Hicks adore Steve King and they'll come out in droves to support him. These are the people that elected him countless times, often with over 60% of the vote, knowing full well he's a Nazi. He can't lose.

[IceSpear]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

[IceSpear]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

Things not included in that graphic that favor 2010 Republicans in comparison to the situation currently faced by 2018 Democrats:


1) Low hanging fruit - There was much more "low hanging fruit" for 2010 Republicans to pick. By this, I mean that there were lots of R+ PVI seats with Dem incumbents which they could win merely by getting the Congressional vote to reflect the Presidential vote

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2010/House/house.html.

Just compare this to the list of Dems who lost to see how many R+5, R+10, R+15, and even R+20 seats were easy pickings for the GOP. By contrast, there are currently very few D+ PVI, and the ones that do exist tend to be more like D+5 at the most (e.g. Valadao, Katko, Curbelo, FL-27, and I think there are literally 0 more significantly D+ districts to win besides those!)


Republican gerrymandering - Probably more than cancels out the fact that Dems are currently doing a few points better on the generic congressional ballot than Reps in 2010 were.


Republican voter suppression laws, control of Secretaries of State/Election Administrations and willingness to use them for partisan vote suppression purposes - So some of the Dems giving the leads on the GCB will end up in some instances not able to vote at all.


Senate map - This is also related to the gerrymandering of the Senate, but Republicans had a much better Senate map to work with in 2010 than the Dems in 2018. Even so, they whiffed on a lot of pickup opportunities in 2010.


In short, the elections are systematically rigged in favor of Republicans.


If all that mattered were the will of the people as expressed by their votes, there would be much less of a problem - Dems would be in great shape. Of course, if that were the case, then Hillary Clinton would also be President right now as well. And Al Gore would have been President in 2000. And Dems would have won back the house in 2012 after having lost it in 2010 (Dems won the 2012 House popular vote - winning the popular vote by a margin of 1.2% translated into losing the # of seats by a margin of 7.6%).

It is extremely likely that Dems will win the House popular vote, and most likely by quite a large margin. But people's votes are only one of a number of factors determining the results of US elections.

Yeah, but most of that stuff is already baked into the analysis. Not a lot of people think Dems are going to win 60+ seats after all.

[IceSpear]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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LOL, this was the poll everyone was freaking out about? What a joke.

[IceSpear]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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I couldn't care less about McLaughlin, but Shalala also released an internal that only gave her a 4-point lead; it's clear this is legitimately close: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

I can only imagine how the undecideds will break in a Clinton +20 district in a Dem wave year. Republicans can have fun trying to get a moral victory by keeping it within single digits though, lol.

[IceSpear]

Sabato's ratings so far (current count, not individual):

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ratings-changes-house-and-governors-2018-09-19/

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Loony Larry is officially off his rocker. He's really overcompensating for getting burned in 2016.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1043206573303234560

I love how every time Charlie Cook decides to move a random safe D seat to likely D for no reason he immediately gets egg on his face from a credible pollster. First NY-25, now this. lol

[IceSpear]

I'm not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but both Triton and Vox Populi have the generic ballot at R+12 in Tennessee. Obviously not enough to flip any seat, but far better than Dems have done there in a long time.

Vox Populi also has D+26 in California, which is obviously no surprise.

[IceSpear]

Muhlenberg has D+11 in PA and Mitchell has D+13 in Michigan.

[IceSpear]

These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044342279333441538

So why are they not moving any ratings toward Democrats based off these "private polls" like they do in favor of Republicans? They only ever move ratings toward the Democrats based off public polls.

They are actually held publically accountable for their ratings, whereas three months from now everyone will forget about their unsubstantiated claims on Twitter (meant to push a narrative).

Yeah, I'm very skeptical of these types of claims. How convenient that "private polls" showing Donnelly doing well only started to be chatted about by the pundits on Twitter AFTER the Marist poll came out.  Before that the conventional wisdom was that the "private polls" showed a tie. And how convenient that "private polls" showing Yoder doing poorly were only suddenly a thing AFTER the Siena poll came out.

They should put their money where their mouth is and start calling some of these races before public polls are released. Maybe then their insight would mean something.

And honestly, considering the genius "experts" had PA-17 as a pure toss up for months, I question whether they even have more insight than the average Atlas poster does.

[IceSpear]

MonmouthPoll
‏ @MonmouthPoll
22m22 minutes ago

VIRGINIA CD07 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
  
@SpanbergerVA07 (D) 47
@DaveBratVA7th (R) 42
  
Likely voters:
Standard model - Spanberger 47 / Brat 47
Dem-surge model - Spanberger 48 / Brat 45
    
#VA07 #Midterms2018

Great poll! Hopefully Abby gives the Brat a good spanking in November!

[IceSpear]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

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26 points?! These suburban women are gonna give the rural racist white male hicks a burbstompin with their high heels they won't soon forget.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1045046861839695872

Nobody show RINO Tom this image.

[IceSpear]

CA-22: SurveyUSA has Devin Nunes up 14 (55-41)

https://abc30.com/nunes-leads-janz-in-exclusive-action-news-poll/4355520/?sf198727219=1

So much for that pipe dream. #CandidateQualityMatters

[IceSpear]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.

[IceSpear]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

[IceSpear]

Not sure if I buy those, those are some over the top numbers for nearly even districts.

Yeah, the margins definitely won't end up being so massive since the undecideds are mostly Republicans, but it's not like these seats are even being seriously contested. And New Hampshire tends to swing big in waves.