CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[IceSpear]

Right now, I am firmly convinced that Cory Gardner is headed to defeat in 2020. Not a single statewide Republican won in Colorado this year, Republicans were destroyed in the Denver metropolitan area, and Gardner is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. Moreover, Trump will lose Colorado by at least high single digits, and the state's demographics will only become more unfavorable to Republicans over the next two years. So long as the Democrats nominate a competent candidate, they should have this race.

All of this is true, but don't forget Gardner is an incumbent, and therefore will run 50+ points ahead of Trump and win this clearly Safe R race.

Is that you, Loony Larry?

[IceSpear]

Is Cory Gardner going to run on banning condoms again? It worked pretty well in 2014...

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

Isnt this a little rich coming from you? To write off a candidate due to factors like state partisanship and whatnot?

PVI of Colorado: D+1
PVI of Kentucky: R+15

Clearly this comparison is totally equivalent. You'd have a point if I was talking about how Republicans could win Vermont.

[IceSpear]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

It's not Safe D this early, but I'd argue that if he needs the political environment dart to hit the dartboard in precisely right place and also get a weak opponent to have a shot then that's as close to DOA as anyone not named Doug Jones is going to get at this point.

Besides, McCaskill and Donnelly faced weak opponents in wave years for their party and still got thumped. Sure Missouri and Indiana are more Republican than Colorado is Democratic, and I'm not denying that in that circumstance Gardner would have a good shot - but arguing, as most of the pundits invariably do, that it's a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race because there might be a red wave is a bit silly, as is arguing he's even favoured if Republicans are having a good year elsewhere. He's just a generic R incumbent in a light-to-medium blue state. Ultra strong candidates don't beat incumbents who talk about nothing about abortion and condoms for the entire campaign by just 2 points in one of the most Republican years in recent history.

I can't speak for others, but I'm so bullish about this race for two reasons: firstly, that the main lessons I learnt from 2018 were not to underestimate partisanship and polarisation, and that 2016 trends are continuing whether we like it or not, and secondly, that hearing the pundits and the R hacks drone on about this Hyper Competitive Tossup Race for the next year and a half is going to be so mind numbing, I'd rather stake my counter position now.

Yeah, the pundits are obviously idiots for rating CO and AL as toss ups. Because of their stupid arbitrary "rule" about how no MUH incumbent could ever possibly be an underdog.

I'd put the race at likely D personally. If one was being overly cautious I could understand lean D as well.

[IceSpear]

It's not like politicians being stupid is anything new. Have we already forgotten Stephanie Miner? Hopefully that 0.9% of the vote in the gubernatorial race was worth it!

[IceSpear]

Remember when Ron Johnson was toast? Pepperidge farms remembers.


I am not saying Gardner is poised to win, but I am simply saying the left should not be throwing a victory party a year before election day.

But then can we say the same for Doug?

Gardner isn't even close to the same scenario as Doug Jones. Sure is he unlikely to win? Yes.But is there a reasonable scenario in which he could win which is around 10 to 15% where he wins like Ron Johnson in a GOP wave scenario? Yes. Doug Jones needs a mega D wave with something truly awful Trump did,with a perfect Democrat candidate in 2020 on the ballot, with Roy Moore being nominated and a complete economy crash. In that Scenario he could win.

It pains me to do so, but I have to agree with this take

It's the obvious take. Gardner could still be saved by a red wave and a weak/preferably scandal plagued opponent. Jones would require both a blue wave and a pedophile opponent.

[IceSpear]

A top-tier recruit strong candidate John Hickenlooper entry would move the Colorado Senate race from Lean R to Pure Tossup, with the popular Democratic governor single-handedly turning a likely snoozefest in which the incumbent Republican had been heavily favored against a weak Democratic field crowded with underwhelming C-listers into the most competitive marquee contest of the cycle which will now likely pit a formidable Democratic recruit against a skilled and battle-tested Republican incumbent. In the meantime, Alabama Republicans are still in search of a credible candidate who could pose a serious threat to Democratic Senator Doug Jones' reelection bid in a Senate race which privately has top Republicans seriously worried.

lmao

Anyway, I'm ambivalent about Hick. His moderate hero presidential campaign has been utterly nauseating, but on the other hand his entry would seal Gardner's fate early and completely take the race off the board.