Potential Scottish Parliamentary Election (earlier than scheduled)

[IceAgeComing]

I think there is a strong argument to amend the laws on this - the shift from 4 to 5 year terms for the devolved administrations was all about avoiding clashes and aligning them with the Fixed Term Parliament Act which has since been repealed: the initial four year timing was because most parliaments in previous years went four years unless the government thought they might lose so it made sense. The Local elections in Scotland are on the same timing to avoid clashes there following the disaster than was 2007 (when they tried to bring in both STV for local elections and having both Parliament votes on the same paper: which resulted in mass spoiled ballots because of overvotes and undervotes due to confusion: I remember having to tell my Mum in the polling booth how she needed to vote). It is worth noting that the Northern Ireland Assembly is distinct on this: they had an early election in 2017 because the Executive fell apart and then the next election was on the new cycle in 2022 (although moved back to May and not March).

It feels like fairly uncontenious legislation although realistically I don't think you'd be able to get it through before an early election if one happened; and I'm immediately slightly more sceptical about lengthening the term of a legislature after people have voted (same reason I think there should have been a May 2024 election in any case now).

[IceAgeComing]

Basically none - General election will be in October; none of the parties would want that (especially the Greens who would be heavily squeezed in that scenario I suspect; simply because there are two FPTP elections happening and they'd have to run less constituency candidates in areas) plus the crunch point for a new election will be when the new leader is elected which is now. After that you get to the point where fresh elections are a bit of a waste of time because of the extraordinary election thing.

I think the shift to elections every 5 years is particularly bad for local authorities, especially ones which are all elected in one go, because it decreases democratic engagement significantly. It also doesn't help that Scottish local authorities hold by-elections by AV and ordinary elections by STV, so too many by-elections can warp the partisan balance somewhat.

Honestly the simplest solution is probably four year terms, but postpone the election by a month if it would otherwise clash with a general election.

I think this is right - and would also do the same with clashes to a Scottish election as well. I guess the challenge is that elections are planned fairly far in advance and needing to have the contingency to have counting staff/venues etc in June just in case might also put some people off. Not unprecedented though - in 1983, 1987 and 2017 we had June elections called after locals and in 1992 the General election was the month before the locals (and in 2001 all elections were delayed a month because of Foot and Mouth).

I would shift to 4 years and either fill vacancies via count back (which would result in more candidates standing and possibly a bit of intra-party competition plus also reflect who the next choice would have been) or co-option for party vacancies to try and mitigate the issues when minority parties stand down. Neither option is perfect but I think its better than the status quo.