Venezuela: is a US-backed 'military option' to oust Maduro gaining favour?

[Skye]

It is certainly gaining favor here in Venezuela. Maduro (or at least, his power) simply won't be removed in an election, that much was made clear during the latest sham elections.

One other way out is a military coup. That, of course, is unlikely to happen, since Maduro has made sure the military remains loyal to him by removing and imprisoning dissidents inside the military and keeping the rest happy with high wages and other absurd benefits which the normal populace doesn't get.

Another way would probably be massive scale protests carried out by every sector of the population, especially the very poor. Commonly called here as "que bajen los cerros", which refers to protests carried out by the poor people that live in the favelas located on the hills of Caracas. Previous protests against Chávez and Maduro have only incorporated the opposition base (which is a wealthier segment of the population) which is (in large part) why they've been ineffective in changing the regime. Problem is, the opposition base is demoralized, tired of protests that lead to nothing, and growing smaller by the minute due to the large scale migration currently in place. Meanwhile, the poor are effectively being blackmailed by the government. Since their wages are to low to purchase anything, they receive food via a food box called "the CLAP" that they may or may not get periodically. This way, the government makes sure they stay in place (i.e. not protesting) because they need the government's help to survive. The people are also afraid to protest due the the heavy repression carried out by the military.

Which is why many believe that a US military intervention is the only solution to this.

Make no mistake, Maduro and his gang won't leave peacefully. I just hope the solution, if there is one, isn't too traumatic for the citizens. Otherwise, we'll end up like Cuba.

[Skye]

The problem with the US staging a military coup in Venezuela is not if it will work, it will, the problem is who will take up the reigns of power. While many may believe that a democracy would take charge and everything would be sunshine and rainbows, its very likely a military dictatorship, or Junta, would take charge. Hell, the people we are sponsoring have made it clear that that is the objective. And South America doesnt have a good track record when it comes to "good dictatorships".

Yes, even if the intervention goes "well" (that is, with minimal bloodshed), the people who end up in power might not be part of the traditional, civilian-dominated opposition, but rather some opportunistic military strongman. However, do take into account that just about every high ranking military official in the country is, at least publicly, strongly allied with Maduro, so that might not be the best presentation card to the eyes of the US.

[Skye]

Even if the US goes with a military option, how likely is it that Venezuela evolves into a fully fledged civil war? Or alternatively, some sort of guerrilla forms?

The government employs their so called "collectivos", which are essentially paramilitary thugs. they are armed, and the rest of the population is not, which is why a fully fledged civil war is unlikely to happen, while guerrilla warfare may form. I suppose is a significant part of the military rebels against the government and fights against the government loyalists while arming civilians it could become a civil war.

[Skye]

Just put sanctions and encourage allies and neutral states to stop supporting or dealing with the Chavista regime. Take in their refugees and encourage the other nations, looking at Peru here, to do the same.

The problem with that is that it doesn't encourage a regime change, and we'll end up becoming a 21st century Cuba. And our neighboring countries can't take care of our refugees if they don't get help from outside.