Actress Cynthia Nixon of Sex and the City to run for NY Governor

[Blair]

It’s fair to say that Nixon doesn’t have as much experience as Cuomo; but she’s clearly an engaged activist who understands the issues.

I know people who’ve never worked in politics who’d be great MPs and I know people who’ve served as councillors for years who’d be awful MPs.

As long as you consider the lack of traditional experience when you vote it’s fine.

[Blair]

Fwiw I don’t know who I’d vote for (probably Nixon) but at least another energised primary challenge  should show Cuomo he shouldn’t run for President.

Was the rampant corruption known of in 2014?

[Blair]

From the odd things I've seen on Twitter from following her campaign, Nixon really is going for it. At first I thought it was just a primary for the sake of it, but her campaign seems impressive in terms of policy roll out, videos and other stuff.

I feel she could still lose by a big margin; just because of Coumo's clout in New York Politics, but there would be something hilarious about a two-term Governor, who keeps briefing about a 2020 run, to then lose to an actress running for the first time.

[Blair]

"The progressive left" and "the labor left" increasingly don't get along with one another.

I don't think that a bunch of corrupt bosses who are chummy with Cuomo are representative of the labor left.

So union bosses are corrupt? Is that an official statement? Do we apply that to all union bosses or just the ones that support Cuomo? If we're only applying that to the ones that support Cuomo, that's a pretty poor argument unless you have evidence on these particular union bosses that demonstrates they are corrupt that we can pass on to the New York SBI.

Democrats' hold on labor has been weakening for some time. Obama did not give a sh**t about them and national labor bosses in 2012 said as much while still supporting the Democratic ticket. I also wonder how many union labor voters Trump won in the 2016 election - rank-and-file, not leadership. Tariffs is also a pro-union issue for a lot I'm thinking (I don't back tariffs, but I think a good number of rank-and-file union members do.) Public service labor's opinion of my local decade-long Democratic Party Mayor is he sold them out and threw them to the wolves (city council) to lose collective bargaining. They responded by not volunteering at Democratic Party campaign activities.

Get down into policies, progressives and labor voters are just diametrically opposed to one another on a number of issues. Otherwise, why is the WFP splitting? Progressives are Waxman and labor are Dingell to recall an infamous committee chair switch.

This is a deeply flawed argument.

Did you see the extremely high amount of union organizing for Connor Lamb in the PA-18 special election? You had both rank-and-file, and the union leadership coming out in heavy support for progressive democratic policies ($15 dollar minimum wage).

The argument about the inevitable conflict between the 'union left', and 'progressive left' is one that's been around the 1960s, and I'm always skeptical of the extend to which people take it. If you polled the vast majority of 'progressive' Democrats, and 'union' Democrats they'd agree on free trade being harmful, on a $15 minimum wage, and probably even on social issues like Gay Marriage, and Abortion.

This isn't 1968.

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The split in New York is not at all about policy. Andrew Cuomo is as much a social liberal as anyone, and is certainly not high on my list of 'union friendly' politicians. But he's a sitting Governor, with a national profile, a long contact book, and a large amount of money. Trade Union bosses aren't going to split from him to join Cynthia Nixon.

Even if someone with experience in NY politics, like De Blasio or Scheinderman was running against Cuomo, I wouldn't expect the unions to jump ship. These types of petty battles between surrogate groups happen in every Democratic Primary.

[Blair]

1. Superdelegates make up a large chunk of the available delegates, Cuomo has a good shot at them though his party connections a la Clinton

The superdelegates have never pushed someone over the line who hasn't one the most number of delegates through the primaries and caucuses. I mean I guess Cuomo would get the majority of NY super-delegates, but I can't see why congress members from say California are going to suddenly rush to him.

Cuomo doesn't have the same party connections as Clinton does, who not only raised tons of money (and had Bill to lean on) but was also the de-facto leader of the Party. (Besides Clinton got superdelegates because she was the front-runner)

2. Coming from the media capitol of the world he'll be swimming in money to flood the 20 or so other campaigns so that he can squeak out a win in Iowa or NH

Raising money won't be an issue for any Democrat in 2020. If either Sanders or Warren runs, then they'll be able to raise more online than Cuomo can (as shown by how Sanders kept up with Clinton in '16)

3. His last name could get some red state democrats(who vote republican but never bothered to change their voter registration) to vote for him.

Would it? I think that his father is popular among Liberals, but he's popular in the same way that Paul Wellstone, Philip Hart or Ted Kennedy was (as an unashamed liberal)

[Blair]

As much as I like Nixon (and find Cuomo hilariously villianish) I won’t be too upset if Nixon loses- she’s pushed Cuomo to the left on a range of issues, and has made him actually campaign.

Nixon’s campaign has essentially just been about using her high name ID to go straight to bashing Cuomo whilst pushing progressive politics. She hasn’t had to waste 5 months doing stupid bio ads, or visits to transit centres.

[Blair]

I haven't looked at the polling, but I assumed that Nixon would match Teachout's margins in upstate New York? Likewise weren't Cuomo's strongest margins in NYC among minority voters?

I still think that Nixon should have ran for Congress; either by launching a primary against one of the awful NYC House incumbents, or by running somewhere else.