British Local Elections, May 2024

[Blair]

Was the West Midlands metro mayoral area designed to be winnable for the Conservatives or have they just been very lucky with their opponents and their own candidate ?

[Blair]

I think there's a good chance that there potential GE vote basically gets lost in the campaign and they basically end up getting what I could unfairly call the 'online boomer' vote combined with people who think the Tories haven't been right wing enough; this might get you 6-7% of the vote, but without a local base where are they going to target?

Ashfield? Clacton?

The first is the classic problem with defections; you end up fighting seats you wouldn't naturally on paper. Which I assume was a problem for the SDP?

The other problem with Reform is that both with their leader and their brand is much more of a 'we're a right wing protest party' rather than a 'we're a populist pro-brexit party'; it's a small difference and one of the tensions that existed in UKIP but I do wonder if they're doomed to basically do what the referendum party did in 1997- take a 1-2K votes and tip 20-30 marginals to Labour and then dissapear.

[Blair]

Why do so many fringe people run in London mayoral races?

I mean both in the sense of is the nomination process easy and do people think there’s a benefit?

[Blair]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

[Blair]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

This is Arfon CLP erasure.

Ha pray tell!

[Blair]

The funny thing is that Labours vote is basically the same as it was in 2017 and 2021 I think- and as CL said Street would have had a good chance under AV to do quite well.

I’d expect it to be closer but it’s a sign of the Times that Street who is a popular, respected and quietly competent figure is treated like a semi god.

[Blair]

I'm very dubious about polling these elections, but it's important to note that these are low-turnout affairs for posts that are, in all honesty, not very powerful or even especially high-profile.

A fun thing that just came to mind is that the demise of local Government & the complete powerless of elected council in the last decade (against a tide of cuts, changes etc) is that a lot of Westminster and the media has convinced themselves that these Metro Mayors must be powerful & influential- some of the old local government figures in the 70s and 80s (and long before) had much more influence than these mayors!

[Blair]

Worth noting that at the start of the year neither the West Midlands or Tees Valley race seemed close; in both cases Labour have picked local councillors with a relatively low profile (which is imho not the worse tactic!)

It’s a sign of the Tories impressive expectations management that they could lose 500 seats, and hang on with two popular (for different reasons!) incumbents- and it will get written up as a good night for them

[Blair]

It’s strange when you think about it that Street is re-standing; he’s had two terms, was clearly livid about HS2 and faces working largely with a Labour Government.

[Blair]

Bad year for Festus Akinbusoye. Loses Mid Beds to Labour in one of the Tories worst by-election results ever, and then loses his day-job as Bedfordshire PCC six months later. It’s unclear whether he’ll even get nominated for the new Mid-Beds seat.

It's weird the PCC results get so little coverage; well not weird everyone hates them and no-one knows what they do, but still the Tories losing especially when the incumbent was very popular! And in Bedfordshire

[Blair]

Would be funny if the Gaza rebellion and Khan losing (still pretty unlikely imo) induces Sunak into calling a summer election.

As we know from the 2022 elections the lobby & Westminster will go mad if Khan loses; weirdly however it will been seen as very much on him & his own unpopularity- and the energised opposition to get him out.

I might be wrong (seasoned posters correct me!) but his 2021 first round showing could easily have gone down because of Gaza, ULEZ and his general unpopularity- antecode not data but it's easy to find individuals who are Labour supporters who do not like him.

When you add in that the changes in Labours polling since 2021 have laregly been among leave voters and Conservative switchers you could suspect London would not seen as large swings- Stephen Bush points out the Conservative vote in London is low, but stable & loyal.

Add in the risk of defections to smaller parties, lower turnout in Labour strongholds and an energised anti-Khan vote and it's easy to get into a world where it's both Khan and Hall fighting in the mid to high 30s.

[Blair]

The first detailed result from the new East Midlands mayoralty had Labour narrowly carrying Rushcliffe - it is fair to say "Wanna Three Jobs Ben" isn't going to achieve that target with this one.

Again weird how little coverage the East Midlands race has had; iirc it's basically drawn in a way that was expected to harm Labour, and Labour winning is a sign of the Times- but everyone will obsess over Houchen & Street.

I guess its boring to say 'Labour do well'

[Blair]

The growth of independents is very very interesting & is actually the thing I would worry about if I was Labour; their vote is very very easy to cannablise at local elections (while remaining relatively strong in GEs- see 97-06)

[Blair]

oh ffs every year we have this national vote share rubbish

[Blair]

What is hilarious about the cope is that several of the councils e.g plymouth, swindon, Aldershot, Thurrock are in marginal parliamentary seats that will lead the road to a labour majority- if they win Plymouth Sutton, Aldershot, Swindon etc they will will be winning a strong majority.

We even had a by election which everyone has forgotten!

[Blair]

I'm very confused about why the press are pretending it's a 'mixed seat of results' for the Conservatives.

They lost in Cumbria! and Aldershot! These places mean something to the former colonels who make up the party

[Blair]

I also stole it from someone on twitter who said that PPCs are actually the closest party line election; the incumbents aren't well known, there isn't a local issue that impacts it & it's quite a broad area that votes...

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786706835321368798

[Blair]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

[Blair]

Khan’s won London South West - another constituency that’s always voted Tory for Mayor and Assembly, with the single exception of a vote for Livingston in 2000. Includes heavy Lib Dem areas like Richmond.

The Assembly result will be interesting; usually a Lib Dem-Tory fight and I assume SK won because a lot of Lib Dems voted Sadiq for Mayor and LD in the two assembly ballots.

The Lib Dems have won it, which is actually their first ever single-member Assembly constituency win (the Tories had always previously won South West).

Even more hilariously the Tories came third!

The only traditional labour part of this seat is Hounslow; and ofc even pre 2015 half of Hounslow borough had a Conservative MP!

[Blair]

It's very fitting for Starmer's Labour if they are going to lose 20% of the vote in Birmingham, only to somehow win with titanic levels swings outside; this is actually the reserve of the reason why Labour were so pessimistic about winning. Was assumed the party was still doing quite poorly outside of the metro area.

[Blair]

Even for the standards of political reporting this was terrible-especially as said person is rumoured to be fronting the BBCs election night coverage.

We all dabble in rumours but even we weren't saying 'it's looking closer' before a vote had been reported.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1786499484676985054

[Blair]

Liam... those... clothes... my goodness... what on...

I'm afraid there are no decent clothes left

Can a chap reasonably eat his piping hot bowl of soup whilst wearing such pale colours?

If I find a mistake I will blame you.

[Blair]

Some are saying now that the Tories are going to roll out the carpet for Street in Solihull (Solihull West after boundary changes) if he wants it. Which would likely put him in a strong position as one of the few MPs with experience  and ready for a shadow role, since the losses will leave them with many freshmen and long-serving backbenchers. The only issue with this is if the Badenochs and JRMs of the party become champions over the parties rubble, which they might, since they could have a higher proportion of remaining MPs.

The whole saga has been mad! They very nearly caused him to leave after cancelling HS2- a policy driven laregly by chronic treasury brain & frankly spreadsheet Rishi & his Transport sec hating trains. Boris had his flaws but on transport he did actually get it...

And for Street the sensible thing I would have done is not run for re-election! He could have expected a seat in the Lords, or as you suggest a safe seat- if he wanted one. Some people do not want to go near the commons, and he has the profile you'd expect of someone who doesn't want to be doing immigration casework and adjournment debates