South African local by-elections

[Kosmos]

Why did this thread die? Things were just getting interesting.

DA reaching impressive results in black majority wards in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu-Natal for instance.

And an IFP victory in an Mpumalanga ward (this is quite unusual as IFP is a heavily regional party)

Magareng (Warrenton), NC - Ward 4
ANC 58.14% (-4.07%)
DA 38.82% (+11.38%)
Ockhuys - Ind 1.69%
Homophobes 0.93%
PAC 0.41%

t/o: 55.78%

Is this the DA starting to consolidate the Coloured vote or anti-ANC voters having nowhere else to go?

The DA's big gain in that particular NC ward came from former COPE voters. COPE for some reason decided not to contest the by-election.

[Kosmos]

Okay, I'll try doing a summary of results of the 27 november by-elections. I don't have the racial census data unfortunately, but perhaps PASOK can help me out with that?

Ward 5 -- Kouga Municipality, EC

DA 57.76% (+2.04%)
ANC 42.24% (-1.52%)

hold

Ward 9 -- Kouga Municipality, EC

ANC 55.96% (-8.99%)
DA 44.04% (+10.32%)

hold

DA clearly pushed ANC hard here, but they managed to retain the ward despite losses. Both parties had campaigned very strongly as a DA victory in both wards had enabled them to take over Kouga (which ANC governs on a slim 15-14 majority). Now that did not happen.

Ward 2 -- Mnquma Municipality, EC

ANC 47.21% (-1.86%)
UDM 26.96% (+16.74%)
DA 20.40% (+11.58%)
PAC 5.44% (+4.20%)

hold

Interesting ward with strong opposition. In 2011 COPE had been the largest opposition party with 25%, but they they did not contest now and the party's voters went to UDM and DA instead. DA managed a nice increase in what I assume is a black majority ward, though the ANC held firm: the growth did not come from there.

Ward 13 -- Nkonkobe Municipality, EC

ANC 97.63% (+1.66%)
PAC 2.37% (+1.62%)

hold

Ward 18 -- Nala Municipality, FS

ANC unopposed

hold

Ward 96 -- Ekurhuleni (East Rand Metro) Municipality, GP

ANC 65.27% (-17.81%)
Ind 28.02%
NFP 3.44% (+2.09%)
IFP 1.65% (+0.09%)
PAC 1.41% (+0.93%)
ACDP 0.21% (-0.08%)

hold

Ward 12 -- Emfuleni Municipality, GP

ANC 86.11% (-1.22%)
PAC 13.89% (+8.17%)

hold

The only serious opposition to the ANC in the GP wards came from an independent (though PAC managed a decent result in the Emfuleni ward). DA for some reason did not field candidates, despite their loudly stated ambition to win Gauteng next year.

Ward 70 -- eThekwini (Durban Metro) Municipality, KZN

DA 57.95% (+24.47%)
ANC 25.15% (+15.76%)
MF 10.03% (-33.72%)
ACDP 4.24% (-3.80%)
COPE 1.63%
IFP 1.00% (-0.60%)

DA GAIN

This is an indian majority ward. The Minority Front has as far as I understand traditionally held strong support in Chatsworth and Phoenix, indian-dominated areas of Durban, and they won this ward with 43% in 2011. But the death of party patriarch Rajbansi has led to open infighting in the party and they may be heading for political oblivion.

The DA candidate was the previous MF councillor for ward 70, who resigned to stand for the DA. The MF faired disastrously, needless to mention, and DA won the ward convincingly. ANC however did increase its support by a large margin as well.

I'll do the rest of the wards another day.

[Kosmos]

Is SA beginning to see race replaced by class-based voting? I am thinking of the relatively strong DA vote in the predominantly black middle-class area.

Another thing that strikes me is that EFF is really in a position to seriously hurt the ANC in some of these mixed-race wards, by splitting the vote and allowing DA to win. But since they dislike both parties, perhaps that is why EFF has yet to contest any by-elections?

[Kosmos]

United Democratic Movement (UDM) have won a by-election against the ANC in Nelson Mandela Bay. Quite a surprising development, and suggests that next year's local elections will be tough for the governing party in the Bay.

[Kosmos]

I missed this development, an unusual by-election held in november.

In ward 32 in Mogalakwena (Mokopane/Potgietersrus), the DA retained their ward with a reduced plurality of 43%, down from about 59% in 2011. The VF+ increase from 9% to 32%. They are usually not a threat to the DA in ward elections, but they did well here.

The VF+ candidate was apparantly the former DA councillor, which might have contributed. But there has been signs of them losing right wing/conservative support for some time. Last year, when Zille still led the party, 3 DA MPs defected to the VF+ before the 2014 election.

Are these exceptions or part of a larger trend?

[Kosmos]

It hasn't been that long since the local elections, but already the first ward has changed hands. EFF took one in Polokwane from the ANC. It wasn't a big swing, EFF already did well there on 3 August. But still.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2016/11/10/EFF-takes-Polokwane-ward-from-ANC

[Kosmos]

It hasn't been that long since the local elections, but already the first ard has changed hands. EFF took one in Polokwane from the ANC. It wasn't a big swing, EFF already did well there on 3 August. But still.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2016/11/10/EFF-takes-Polokwane-ward-from-ANC

What is the ANC majority now?

51 seats out of 90.

[Kosmos]

By-elections happen usually every month in South Africa. But they are often not of that much significance. It's hard to determine trends by a few isolated wards. The by-elections, if you can call them that, which took place on November 29th, however, are a bit different.

Metsimaholo, a smaller municipality on the Gauteng border, became the only council in the Free State to be won by the opposition in 2016. This was largely due to the strong position of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): with a result of almost 18%, well above their national support level, they pushed ANC down from 63% to 45%. A coalition of the Democratic Alliance (DA), Metsimaholo Community Association (a local party) and the Fredom Front Plus (FF+) took over the municipality with EFF support.

But by 2017, the MCA Mayor Sello Hlasa began working with the ANC, going as far as firing the DA members on his mayoral committee and bringing in ANC members instead. In response, the DA and EFF started boycotting council meetings, which collapsed the government; the municipality was placed under administration after being unable to pass a budget and new elections were called for all wards and PR seats.

This new election was made extra interesting by the appearance of the South African Communist Party (SACP). The SACP usually runs under the banner of the ANC, but cracks have widened between the Alliance partners in recent years. The party sees this election as a testing of the waters, to see if they can truly stand on their own. The results suggest that they could.

The elections were pretty much a disaster for the ANC, which saw its support drop from already low levels to about 35%. This meant that the party fell under 50% - and often under 40% - in its traditional strongholds in the townships. They retained all their 16 wards, but often with drastically reduced majorities.

The main opposition DA had a rather bad election as well, if not as disastrous as the ANC's. The party was able to increase its support in the ANC strongholds, but could only register big voter increases in perhaps a handful of voting districts. Elsewhere the growth was marginal. Furthermore, the DA had a bad night with its traditional white suburban supporters. The voter turnout in these areas - while higher than in the townships - was lower than last year. There was also a notable increase of support for the FF+, from 2% to roughly 3,5%. All five wards were retained comfortably, though. In the end, the DA had a small net loss of support from 29 to 28%. This suggests that the party is not growing enough in new areas to be able to afford losses among its traditional constituencies.

The EFF had good growth in some wards, but on the whole only grew modestly to 19%.

It was the new player SACP that truly hurt the ANC this time around, with almost 10% of the vote in its independent electoral debut. However, SACP's performance in the ANC stronghold wards was uneven: in one ward it earned over 30% of the vote and almost became bigger than ANC, while in some others it was even smaller than the DA. But in my opinion, they performed well overall.

I could post detailed results ward by ward, if anyone is interested?

[Kosmos]

I could post detailed results ward by ward, if anyone is interested?

I would be interested.

It's pretty crazy that EFF are supporting a DA/FF+ municipality when you think what Malema normally has to say about white people.

Strange political bedfellows indeed. Although Malema has gone back and forth on how exactly he feels about the whites.

There were many parties competing in the by-elections, and several of them got very few votes. To make this easier for me, I will only include the larger parties in each ward:

Ward 1

ANC 39,50% (-30,23)
EFF 33,06% (+9,63)
DA 13,28% (+8,46)
SACP 7,78%

Ward 2

ANC 58,77% (-10,32)
EFF 17,83% (-4,60)
DA 12,02% (+8,64)
SACP 4,39%

Ward 3

ANC 35,33% (-19,44)
SACP 33,62%
EFF 20,65% (-16,50)
DA 5,38% (+1,50)

Ward 4

ANC 44,36% (-25,5)
EFF 26,99% (+3,74)
SACP 8,83%
DA 7,82% (+3,41)
AIC 6,30%

Ward 5

ANC 58,19% (-2,22)
DA 17,20% (-0,59)
EFF 9,94% (-8,46)
SACP 5,53%
FF+ 3,75% (+1,53)

Ward 6

ANC 44,14% (-12,03)
EFF 25,22% (-1,17)
SACP 14,03%
DA 8,01% (+0,81)
MCA 4,17% (-5,57)

Ward 7

ANC 37,29% (-24,18)
EFF 33,37 (+11,37)
SACP 19,50
DA 4,28 (-2,02)

Ward 8

ANC 49,90% (-16,05)
EFF 24,93 (+2,12)
SACP 11,52%
DA 6,08% (+1,95)
AIC 4,19%

Ward 9

ANC 45,81% (-15,3)
EFF 32,10% (+5,36)
SACP 7,82%
DA 6,77% (+3,89)
MCA 4,36% (-4,53)

Ward 10

ANC 40,51% (-11,80)
EFF 33,62% (+3,06)
SACP 14,31%
DA 5,49% (-0,08)

Ward 11

ANC 45,94% (-8,27)
EFF 25,38% (+8,11)
SACP 11,49%
DA 7,40% (+1,98)
MCA 4,33% (-7,95)

Ward 12

ANC 46,52% (-5,37)
EFF 20,43% (+3,00)
F4SD 16,33%
MCA 4,88% (-20,32)
DA 4,49% (-0,10)
SACP 4,49%

Ward 13

ANC 44,67% (-18,84)
EFF 28,14% (+1,56)
SACP 10,59%
DA 6,61 (+3,55)

Ward 14

DA 74,35% (-4,53)
ANC 8,79% (-2,99)
FF+ 8,75% (+3,33)
EFF 4,43% (+1,36)

Ward 15

DA 69,75% (-4,65)
FF+ 10,24% (+4,49)
ANC 9,60% (-3,85)
EFF 5,70% (+1,12)

Ward 16

DA 81,62% (-3,13)
FF+ 12,15% (+4,52)
ANC 3,50% (-1,84)

Ward 17

DA 50,07% (-3,95)
ANC 18,72% (-10,43)
EFF 11,95% (+1,70)
FF+ 9,68% (+5,04)
SACP 7,40%

Ward 18

DA 82,63% (+0,57)
FF+ 8,07% (+2,35)
ANC 5,58% (-2,69)

Ward 19

ANC 42,33% (-14,50)
EFF 23,80% (-2,15)
DA 16,84% (+3,62)
SACP 12,68%

Ward 20

ANC 38,56% (-5,59)
DA 32,39% (-5,73)
EFF 13,65% (-0,13)
FF+ 8,10% (+6,26)

Ward 21

ANC 42,82% (-19,17)
EFF 34,45% (+12,56)
DA 8,22% (+0,74)
SACP 5,66%
AIC 4,73%