VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[henster]

Big unforced error for Northam with this ad: https://twitter.com/latinovictoryus/status/924972736996364289

Not directly from the Northam campaign, but its getting a ton of traction online. Its sad that Northam is sinking to the same level as Gillespie with this fear-mongering.

Campaigns cannot coordinate with Super PACs.

[henster]

There are so few Latino voters in VA I am not sure why this group is even getting involved. Maybe a positive mailer would've been more effective than an ad that only generates negative press for Northam.

[henster]

Just crazy how Republicans can get away with basically calling Dems gang sympathizers and sex offender supporters but an ad from an independent group implying their racist and there's universal outrage.

[henster]

I think it's ridiculous they are trying to insinuate a pediatrician somehow supports pedophiles, I would really like to talk a voter who genuinely believes this.

[henster]

The same guy who ran Hick’s 2014 campaign is running Northam’s. Hmm

[henster]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It will be Brownback 2.0, has anyone seen his asinine tax plan?

[henster]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

That simply isn't a meaningful comparison. It might have been had McAuliffe's blanket restoration been upheld, but it simply wasn't. McAuliffe was told that he must consider the merits and demerits of each convicted felon. Ignorance simply cannot be an excuse. A meaningful analogy would be if Congress had pass a special tax break for said child pornographer after he had been arrested and charged.

Dozens of other states have felon restoration after time served and yes including sex offenders. And there is no issue, Gillespie himself supported felon restoration until he realized it was an issue he could exploit. This is why we will never have criminal justice reform and continue to have overcrowded prisons.

[henster]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

That’s mostly what I’m referring to, yeah.

There could be a chance to take back the state Senate in 2019, and if Northam wins the GOP would just kick the can to 2022 in hopes for a Republican Gov. They could literally wait until April 2022 to draw the maps. So Ds have three hurdles to get fair maps win in 2017, win in 2021, or flip one of the chambers.

[henster]

Obama should do multiple rallies in NOVA & Hampton Roads on Monday.

[henster]

Crazy how people view a former lobbyist as more 'patriotic' and 'American' than a former Army doctor. Nobody talked about MS-13 before the election now its apparently a #1 issue, seems like Ebola we'll probably never hear about it again until the next election.

[henster]

People take exits at face value while Cohn has argued extensively that they are somewhat off. I remember him saying 2013 was actually 71-14 W/B and not the 21% the exits showed.

[henster]

Trafalgar has Gillespie beating Northam 65-23 with 18-25 voters.