The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[henster]

Murphy says “I’ll rule it out for you” when asked about running for prez in 2020.  Though when asked for the third time he just says “I’m running for reelection” so read into that what you will:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-sen-chris-murphy-rules-out-2020-presidential-bid/

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This is not Shermanesque, but it's coming pretty close.

I like Murphy he is a pretty savvy pol, but his gun control politics is just not going to play well in the Heartland. And I think he understands that.

[henster]

Holy sh*t the democratic field is going to have like 50 candidates in it.

Good. No more heirs to the throne.

I think we will have 4 or 5 serious candidate and that will narrow down to 2 by March. A lot of these names thrown around like Moulton, Ryan, Garcetti will prob drop out before Iowa.

[henster]

Luis Gutierrez not ruling out 2020 presidential run

Some of these people’s egos...

[henster]

I still feel like businessman & generals are really the only outsider professions that can win, I am really skeptical any Hollywood celebrity could ever be elected just on their acting career alone. Being a businessperson at least gives the voter an impression that you've run something and can run the gov't or can manage the economy. And people have great respect for the military and see generals and such as disciplined etc. The Rock has no record to run on, he's never really run anything same for any actor .I guess their personality would be their biggest asset.

[henster]

It doesn't work out for Newsom even if he wanted to run. Assuming he wins CA-GOV he'd be sworn in Jan 2019 and at the latest announce by July 2019. What kind of accomplishments is he going to gather in that short timeframe, not much time to even build support with your own constituents.

[henster]

Newsom reiterates that he's not running for prez (and even looks directly at the camera to say no):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mvEzs3NNfY

For that matter, he says that Jerry Brown had problems in his initial terms as governor because he had an eye on running for president.  Not exactly the words of a guy who's planning to make a presidential run right after being elected governor.

You can rarely trust a prominent politician who says they're not running for President, but this is a more firm denial than most would give. probably fair to count him out.

It is just not really practical for him if he ran he'd only be a few months in office spending half of his time out of state.

[henster]

Moulton raising big $$ in NY.

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http://www.cnn.com/2018/02/12/politics/seth-moulton-fundraising/index.html

This might be a net negative for him since more and more Dems seem to want more small donor fundraising.

[henster]

Why isn't there a progressive version of CPAC?

[henster]

Biden is talking to his advisors about 2020:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/biden-in-public-and-private-tiptoes-toward-a-2020-run/2018/02/17/fa2349fc-1425-11e8-a68c-e9374188170e_story.html

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There’s also talk in Biden’s circle of a one term pledge:

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TBH this is a good enough reason to not vote for him. A one term pledge erases the single most valuable benefit to winning a presidential election (incumbency) and I wouldn't want to piss it away just for Amtrak Joe

Some people may interpret this as Biden not being confident enough that he'll make the full eight years. Imagine if McCain made this pledge back in 2008 he woud've been hammered over it.

[henster]

McAuliffe now throwing caution to the wind in his 2020 hints, by asking the rhetorical question “Who better to take on Trump than me?”:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/terry-mcauliffe-better-take-trump/

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Terry had very high negatives when he ran for Governor and only won because Cucinelli was even more disliked even then he still barely won. In many ways 2013 was a lot like 2016 but the Dem won with the help of high 3rd party vote. He is only a little bit above Cuomo in terms of worst Dem nominees.

[henster]

Klobuchar and Moulton are both speaking at the AIPAC policy conference in DC next week:

http://www.policyconference.org/gallery/speakers2018.asp

The other Dems speaking there are people who are thought to not have 2020 presidential ambitions, like Bob Menendez and Ben Cardin.

Other 2020 Dems, like Biden, Booker, and Gillibrand, have spoken at this before.  Heck, Kamala Harris did so just last year.  They could probably do so again this year if they really wanted to, but my hunch is that the Democratic primary calculus with respect to Israel policy has now shifted enough that speaking to AIPAC isn’t going to be seen as an obvious electoral asset.

Not a good look. Although not surprising as they have both advocated for neocon policies.

[henster]

Disagree with the idea that McAuliffe is a bad candidate. That last time he was unpopular in Virginia the beginning of his term, and he's been broadly popular for nearly his entire term. He also has a long record of accomplishments as governor that would give him credibility to run for President. Not to mention all the connections he's gathered over his long political career. Terry McAuliffe is who most newly minted Dem operatives dream of becoming, tbh

Of course he became more popular in office when he was a lameduck and there were no more attacks against him. It doesn't change the fact he was a sleazy businessman who made quite a few questionable deals it will just be brought back up again.

[henster]

Kasie Hunt presses Chris Murphy on whether he’ll run for prez in 2020 here:

https://twitter.com/KasieDC/status/970473274743427072

He initially gives a non-denial denial, then she presses again:

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Which again, is a dodge.  Saying you “have no plans” doesn’t mean that you’re not going to end up doing it.

He would be a terrible general election candidate. he's too "elitist" and way too anti-gun for the rust belt and Midwest.

I mean I wouldn't call Murphy elitist he comes from a relatively middle class background is one of the poorer Senators but he does come from a 'elitist' state. I do agree his gun control obsession makes him a poor candidates for the type of states Dems need.

[henster]

He’s running



Promoted tweet in a year he’s not running for re-election.

I’ve seen quite of few Facebook ads from him asking for emails. He seems to be list building and there are various reasons why pols may want to do that.

[henster]

Hanna Trudo of National Journal says that people in Mitch Landrieu's orbit have hinted to her that Landrieu is seriously considering a presidential run:

https://twitter.com/HCTrudo/status/971195184389263360

LOL. These Mayors are something else, I think some of these guys will only run to sell books.

[henster]

I am not sure if Harris will really run she may think she's too green to go for it. Or may bow out to Booker/Warren, I have her at 50/50 on running, Warren 80/20, Booker/Gillibrand 99%.

[henster]

Here is a useful page keeping track of all the Dem. visits to Iowa:

https://iowastartingline.com/2020-watch/

I guess I had missed O'Malley's visit to Iowa last month.  Also missed a couple of those Swalwell visits.

is their anything significant about Swalwell other than his early state visits?

Swalwell was actually born in Iowa so maybe he's visiting family and doing events while there as well.

[henster]

Buttigieg said to be considering a number of options, including a presidential run:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/27/buttigieg-2020-president-off-message-217712

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But he’s now doing everything he needs to do to keep the presidential option open:

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Of course, because paying dues and running for the IN-2 this cycle or IN Gov in 2020 was simply unconscionable.

Barring a major scandal, whoever goes up against Holcolmb is a sacrificial lamb. He has strong approval ratings and has avoided contentious issues. I wouldn't want Buttigeg to waste his career by getting blown out by Holcolmb

Todd Young would be a better target in 2022, or IN-02 this cycle would certainly be reasonable.

What is with people afraid losing will take their record same with Castro? Obama, Bush,Clinton, Reagan all lost before eventually winning.

[henster]

Kander hires Des Moines Register scribe amid 2020 buzz

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With Greitens imploding this doesn’t make sense, MO-GOV is right there for him.

[henster]

Looks like Biden really wants to pass the baton to a younger Dem, can't see him running at all if Kamala or Booker does.

[henster]

Report: Kamala Harris heads to Drumpf country for 2020 'shadow campaign'

https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Kamala-Harris-2020-election-Drumpf-country-Michigan-12890494.php

We all know she is going to run but this could be an interesting trial to see if she could appeal to, or even salvage, some of those voters that Clinton lost.

I hate how they characterize Michigan & Wisconsin as 'Trump country' were they ever described as Obama country? No.

[henster]

They are unwittingly going to split up the black vote and allow candidates they don’t want (Warren, Bernie) to win. The only way Patrick has any chance is if he’s the only black candidate and can consolidate that vote.

[henster]

Wondering why you haven't heard much about a potential Luis Gutierrez campaign since he put out some hints last November? Well, here's your answer:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gutierrez-passes-on-presidential-run
https://soundcloud.com/siriusxm-news-issues/rep-luis-gutierrez-d-il-on-why-he-wont-be-running-for-president/s-y3ie1

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Would've been an interesting case study in just how far an intensely Latino-focused strategy can take you in the Democratic primaries. I always thought that if he did run, it would only be to increase the salience of immigration as an issue, not to actually win. Maybe he figured he didn't need to run in order to do that.

Julian Castro will try this although I'm not sure how successful it will be from a non-fluent Hispanic. Garcetti is fluent and 'Hispanic' will try to aggressively go for the Latino vote but I think people will still view him as Anglo.

[henster]

Brown will not run if DeWine wins its as simple as that.

[henster]

Another Inslee 2020 question:

https://www.thedailyworld.com/news/inslee-heading-to-iowa-for-fundraiser-prompting-questions-about-a-possible-run-for-president/

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jay inslee seems like a better choice for VEEP but i suppose we'll see

I'd put him in the same basket as McAuliffe and Hickenlooper old white Governor who doesn't really have much charisma. I think the only chance a white straight guy is going to be the nominee is if they are really young.