Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[henster]

Rass tweeting out daily #'s of Trump supposed black JA which they say is 36%, amazingly Trump only manages a 49% approval rating overall with numbers like that. I'm starting to think we may have another Research 2000 situation.

[henster]

He always seems to float back to 44-45% after any rough patch, essentially what he got in 2016. I think he's had very little attrition since the election maybe losing a little of his initial support and gaining a tiny amount.

[henster]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

[henster]

Rass has Trump JA at 50% but they also tweeted out his JA with blacks is at 35%, I think they might be another Research 2000.

Rasmussen has shown a very high approval of Trump by blacks for a while now. Other polls don't have him nearly as high, but they do show marked improvement among blacks since 2016.

Black people just love it when Republicans call them n*****s. Didn’t you get the memo? Also love it when Republicans hate them kneeling. They have a masochistic voting habit

Here's the thing: a quarter of blacks or more identify as conservatives, and most identify as moderate, not liberal. Whether they vote for Republicans is another matter (which I'm thinking about starting a thread on). It's not insane to think a third of blacks might approve of Trump.

If a third of blacks approved of Trump then his JA would consistently be above 50%. The Rass polls makes no sense because if his JA with blacks is 35% then how is he only at 50%. They are either seriously undersampling black voters which skews their whole result or making numbers up for headlines.

[henster]

His overall would not only be 50% if his JA with blacks were 40%. Why is nobody pointing this out? This is like if a Dem suddenly had 40% of white evangelical support, they'd be heading for a landslide.

[henster]

FOX seems to have exit polls for all 50 states, they along with AP did their own exits and the JA seem different than the ones on CNN. Lower in WI/MN/NV. In WI it's 43/56, in MN 41/58, in NV 45/54. The Fox results seem to jive more with the election results in those states, no R in MN really got more than 42%, Heller/Laxalt got around 45%, Vukmir got around 45%.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

[henster]

Although there was no exit poll of Iowa by Edison Research, we do have a exit poll from Public Policy Polling, a dem leaning firm but still some data is better then nothing. It found Trump approval at 49%, disapproval 48% with a partisan split of 37R/35D/28I.  The numbers in the cross-tabs seem to check out so the 49% approve, 48% disapprove number is likely true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/392695469/Exit-Poll-Iowa-Voters-11-6-11-7-2018

FOX/AP exit poll which is different from Edison had him at 46/54.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=IA&type=G

[henster]

Zogby, Jan. 18-20, 893 likely voters (change from Nov.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 46

This is a BFD.

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[henster]

Someone must have confused Groundhog Day with April Fool's Day.

This bosh has no undecided and one sum at 101%.

Trump is at 46/48 approval in this poll.  That seems rather high for Iowa.

...and it is released on the day in which the poll ends (which I didn't notice at first)/

I would accept 46-48 for Iowa without those problems. (and there are two 101% sums -- not one!)

Emerson only called landlines in '16 and somehow ended up being the more accurate pollsters, along with Gravis they've always astounded me how weird they are but end up producing decent results.

[henster]

I’m pretty sure Rasmussen is just making up numbers at this point. Where do they get the $$ to run a polls of ‘likely voters’ every day when even Gallup can’t do that anymore? We already know Trump paid people off to rig online polls for him in 2016. The way he always has a graphic to tweet out of their polls raises a lot of red flag, he’s paying them off to produce fake polls for them.
 

[henster]

Whenever there was a major indictment it didn't really move his numbers all that much, Russia was barely even an issue in the midterms. The investigation was always more of a inside the beltway thing that cable news hyped up, I think his JA is pretty much baked in at -10 or so atp.