Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[henster]

But Regarding the delay... To begin with- all of the current candidates had over a year to get ready to announce their campaign (decide to run... then have the infrastructure in place to hit the ground running in a National Campaign).  And most of those candidates delayed their announcement a lot longer than Beto if you consider when they began planning for such a National campaign.

So in addition to just the time it takes to set up a Presidential Campaign (to be able to hit the ground running)... Is the need to have a really impressive opening rally a potential reason for the delayed announcement... in that once he decided he was definitely running - it may take a little time to set up an opening that will live up to some of the large rally's Beto during the Senate campaign?

I don't think it's problematic at all for him to have delayed his announcement until this month or next month or whenever he wants to do it.  But ideally he should have gone about it like the other candidates did, which is to publicly pretend that he's still undecided up until the day that he makes his announcement.  The fact that he's said publicly that he's decided but won't tell us what the decision is yet looks rather silly, IMHO.  Not a big deal, just an example of him executing his rollout in a way that doesn't really make any sense, which might be a consequence of him being more of a newbie to the national stage than most of the other candidates.

Beto is acting like a frontrunner which he's not, maybe in January he would've been but not today. He's keeping people in suspense while many of his supporters are gravitating to other candidates. To the point where he has to spend the next few months clawing back what he lost.

[henster]

What was the whole point of the "I'm gonna share my plans with you all soon" sign up for email/SMS he was posting for the past two weeks. Only to do it via text to some local news station... This whole dragged out announcement doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for me.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1106643205309820930



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1106646562766086145

Oof.

Not surprised given how much he screwed up his launch. He pretty much made it obvious he was running for a few weeks, held off then decided to reveal it via text to some local TV station the day before it was official.

[henster]

If Beto keeps apologizing for everything then it's going to be hard for me to support him. I really need a candidate with a backbone who isn't just going to give in to every outrage mob out there. How ridiculous is it that he apologized for making a joke about his wife?

[henster]

I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

I definitely get the feeling (as a Jew mind you) that if Gantz forms a government next month then close to the entire Dem field would be rushing to support AIPAC, J street, and other organizations. Hell, Gantz forming a government would allow us to sniff out who exactly is truly antisemitic, since only the antisemitie would continues to oppose Israel despite Bibi leaving and policy towards the Arabs and the peace process changing.

So anyone who doesn’t support Israel is an antisemite? Even as a relatively pro-Israeli dem, my God, get a grip.

I think you misunderstood my post - or perhaps I was too forceful. There is legitimate criticism one can level at Israel. However, the majority of Antisemites (and this is a extreme group) on the left right now are hiding behind this thin line of legitimate criticism. When they get called out, they say that its Israeli policies that they are criticizing, or a variety of other things that flow from the Office currently occupied by one Bibi. Who like I said, is not beyond criticism - I don't like the guy and I think he is damaging our relationship by trying to tie Israel to the Republicans. But if Bibi is gone, this excuse vanishes. In fact most mainstream dem 'worries' about Israel right now flow from Bibi, and it makes sense that said mainstream dems would be happy with other who are more or less more mainstream liberals - Gantz, Lapid and B&W. GAProgressive gets it, its BIBI that most of the dem politicians have problems with, not Israel.

Now this is a Beto thread, so If you want to continue this discussion, lets take it somewhere else.

Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

He's jumped from like 5-6% to third or fourth place nationally IIRC

I also think Beto suffers from the same thing Harris has going one right now. They have a solid base, but the name recognition wall still stands firm. Biden and Sanders right now still have their shine, but once the media is solely about the dem field and their politiking, the white knights will come down to play with the rest. Harris, Beto, and to a lesser extent Buttegieg and Klobuchar are playing for those voters right now enamored by Bern&Bid, so we might not see large shifts until that late summer at the earliest.

Another thing is that a lot of the people (from all ages, genders, ethnicities) I have talked with have Beto as their number TWO. If this anecdote is occurring elsewhere, Beto might uniquely benefit from candidates dropping out. Its another thing he might share with Lincoln.

No one boycotted AIPAC they literally weren't invited.

[henster]

Why have almost all of the primary candidates (other than Beto), contacted or had a meeting with Stacey Abrams?  And if all of the others have, wonder why Beto hasn't followed suit?

Per CNN- apparently most of the Senators have met with Abrams (probably around the same time when she was in Washington recently)... and Hickenlooper, Buttigieg, and maybe someone else have contacted her via a phone call?

Not that I really understand the need for Beto to call Abrams at this point considering he's in the middle of rolling out his campaign.  But I do think (especially given his likeability and seemingly ability to sort of win people over) Beto could benefit a good amount... from contacting a lot of the Dem Personalities , Politicians, etc ... as well as a many of the national media personalities/ players, etc.  This would help cut off much of the nonsense about Beto not yet having a 500 page policy dissertation written out yet.  It would be a lot harder to make these meaningless digs at Beto (or any candidate) after getting to know him via an in person meeting or an on-set interview, etc.  

Pete is really utilizing the valuable publicity that comes from becoming sort of a regular on the various cable news shows.  Hopefully, after Beto's kickoff rallies, he will also become a frequent guest on Cable News shows as well (this would put him in control of the Beto narrative on these show- in addition to gaining supporters from people watching).

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

[henster]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/03/30/beto-orourke-signed-this-pledge-oil-money-did-he-break-it/

This article really says nothing other than Beto took normal contributions from individuals who worked in the oil and gas industry (at all levels, whether a rig worker or a president of the company).  Texas as more people who have a job related to oil & gas than any other state in the country.  Should those individuals be barred from contributing in their individual capacity?  And how would you even monitor not accepting money from individuals who work in specific industries? 

This also explains why Cruz & Beto were the top 2 recipients in 2018 elections... Because of the size of Texas and the amount of individual who work in a job that is related to oil and gas.

No candidate should ever bar ppl in their individual capacities from contributing to a campaign just because of what job they happen to have.

But, but, but...MUH NARRATIVE!!!!!!!!

Yeah - Beto isn't one of my top choices, but this particular "scandal" has always been BS.

This is why it’s so dumb to take these stupid pledges they will nitpick everything. Just say no corporate PAC money it’s simple and easy for voters to understand while not hobbling the campaign. Warren’s purist approach is literally gonna kill her campaign.

[henster]

When will Beto start a Media Offensive?

If Beto was on the various cable news & Media shows (Morning Joe, CNN New Day, Maddow, Hardball, Cuomo, The View, Late Night Shows, CNN Town Halls, MSNBC Town Halls, etc, etc) as much as Buttigieg .... He would easily be above 15% right now.

Because whether we like it or not, Presidential elections are now... part reality show- and allowing voters to get to know you on a personal level is how you seperate yourself from the crowd.  Especially if you are a candidate like Beto- who is arguably one of (if not the) most charasmatic, X-Factor, younger, naturally likeable, etc, candidates in the field.

Hopefully at some point in the not to distant future Beto will hit the Media circuit in a big way.  Its important to meet people on the ground... But the US is a lot bigger than the state of Texas- & Beto needs to use these media shows to reach millions of people he will never get the chance to meet in person on the campaign trail.  Reaching these millions of viewers will also give him a boost in the polls... which is usually a self propelling event (a rise in polls from cable news viewers, spurs more support from people simply seeing the poll numbers rise).

Such a media strategy does not work for all candidates (or maybe even most candidates).  But it will absolutely work for X-Factor candidates like Beto... who's strength is in large part charisma & natural Likeability.

Granted- its probably good not to pursue such a strategy too early (Pete may be making his jump a little too early)... But at the same time, you definitely do not want to wait too late either.  Hopefully Beto will hit the timing perfectly (A good strategy could be to go hard on media shows the very end of April- beginning of May .... then stick mainly to the campaign trail over the summer ... and start to Hit the Media shows hard again around the End of August.  Or maybe do what Trump did in 2016 and just become a permanent presence on the News shows from here on out!)

If/when his fundraising starts to lag he will do a media blitz most likely. Should be less of a necessity for candidates like Beto with decently high name ID so he has the luxury to wait.

[henster]

Beto really should done the town hall tonight, he’s fading into to obscurity at this point. I can see his next quarter being disappointing.

[henster]

Now is a good time for a media blitz.

[henster]

I wonder how different his fortunes would've been had he just announced in January when he had the attention of everyone including Oprah. That whole indecision period along with the media blackout has to be one of the worst campaign decisions of the decade.

[henster]

Beto prob has two more chances to recover, the 2nd debate which he's already qualified for and I believe he has 130K donors from his early momentum that gets him into the 3rd debate. He needs to figure out how to deal with Castro though. Unlike previously where it was doubtful whether Castro would even qualify for the 3rd debate he probably will now and continue to attack Beto.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1150568879497916416

We really need a anti-PC Democrat who has the guts to say 'Who cares/So what' to stuff like this. It's so absurd he has to answer for stuff like this when he has no control over it.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1150568879497916416

We really need a anti-PC Democrat who has the guts to say 'Who cares/So what' to stuff like this. It's so absurd he has to answer for stuff like this when he has no control over it.

Literally no one asked him to address this. He’s virtue signaling. Black people outside of the intelligentsia cohort on Twitter do not care...

He didn't do this unprompted he did to this as a pre-response to an article from the Guardian.

[henster]

His campaign has to be the biggest joke.

Indeed, if this were how 2018 went, he'd have lost to Cruz like it was the 2014 Senate Election and Cruz was John Cornyn.

As a former Beto-backer, I don’t think the problem is him exactly. His past campaigns were so successful because he ran the way he wanted to: no pollsters, being honest and blunt. But this year he’s been running a textbook campaign. He listened to pundits and consultants who kept saying he had to run the way they’ve always seen campaigns run. If he tunes them out and goes with his gut the way he used to, he can tap into that same energy he had in 2018 and pull a McCain-level comeback.

No, it was more the fact that he had the entire national media prompting and hyping his campaign in 2018, now that they have other shiny objects they don't want to play with him anymore

His two mistakes were that he didn't launch in January when he had the absolute most buzz he even had Oprah's attention didn't even use that opportunity. The second mistake he made was launching and then just having a media blackout.