VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[henster]

It definitely looks like a Spanberger vs. Stoney showdown. Stoney really has no business running though, his tenure as Mayor has really been rocky and its evident by the fact he was reelected with just 38% of the vote in 2020. Spanberger has represented both the Richmond and NoVA media markets so she will have the name ID advantage over Stoney who will probably underperform in his area given his record.

[henster]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1731652825216582005?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Does he have a shot at getting the nomination and if so could he win the general?

Right now the primary is spanbergers to lose. She's been laying the groundwork for this for a while,  and has the party support to show for it. Stoney meanwhile has...issues, to put it mildly.  He's not that popular,  at least compared to the TMac challengers from 2021. See his two failed casino referendums for easy evidence.  He already has a lot of the African American side of the party, Louise Lucas immediately hopped on board for example, but one wonders where he will find other supporters. Stoney has not been a friend to the Ideological progressive types who would jump to vote against spanberger if given a incentive.

Stoney's record is bad enough that I could see Spanberger having a shot of winning Richmond over him. He has never won more than 40% of the vote in both his election bids as Mayor. The only areas I could see him genuinely doing well is Hampton Roads and southside where people don't really know him and an area Spanberger never represented.

[henster]

Very early polling finds Spanberger at 52%, Stoney at 8%. So, yeah.....


Some have suggested that Stoney is just gathering the resources before he drops down to the less noteworthy Lt. Gov race, something that he will could win the primary for if he does. But that's all speculation.

Honestly LT Gov is probably a big downgrade for him at least salary wise he makes $125K a year as Mayor and would make $36K as LT Gov. I don't think Stoney is independently wealthy so for him he mind as well go for the top spot or take his chances in the private sector.

[henster]

I’m surprised Rouse isn’t running for VA-02

Being in the House sounds miserable these days. Being a Lieutenant Governor seems like a good gig - light on responsibilities, sometimes in the limelight, and you're set up in a great position for Governor in 4 years.

Plus VA-02 has a lot of turnover in the past decade they've had four different incumbents. Not fun dealing with the misery of the House and then having to work your butt off every cycle to hold the seat. Rouse is rising super fast though but he's taking the smart path unlike some others.