State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[mds32]

I'm feeling real confident about the New Hampshire legislature flipping next year. If you applied a 9 point swing across the board in state Senate races, you'd get about 6 seats flipping R -> D, which is 3 more than necessary for Democrats to take control. 11 point swing and you get maybe 7 or 8 seats. By no means am I suggesting you would see a uniform swing, but Republicans really only barely held their ground in the state Senate in terms of their win margins, so it's  hard to see them holding on in 2018. Ditto for the state House.

You guys should check out all the special elections at Ready2vote, there are at least 3 more special elections in New Hampshire that with these numbers could flip to the Democrats easily. Such as Hillsborough's 15th seat.

https://ready2vote.com/special-elections

[mds32]

Massachusetts and Mississippi are two joke states with their refusal to release the results. Baker and Bryant should be ashamed of themselves for this embarrassing action.

Don't blame them, that falls the elected Secretaries of State's of the states.

[mds32]

Next week the "primaries" for the Washington State Special Elections will be occurring

[mds32]

Pretty excited for HD-50 on Tuesday. Hopefully Skelton does well.

I predict a Skelton win. As well as a Miller win in IA-HD-82 (the seat is a Democratic seat that Trump won 58-37)

[mds32]

Next special election will be RI-SD-13 on Aug. 22nd:
Dawn Euer (D)
Michael Smith (R)
Gregory Larson (G)
Kimberly Ripoli (I)

[mds32]

Next week NH-Grafton-HD-9

Adjutant (D) vs. Migliore (R) vs. Babiarz (L)
Republican-held seat, Obama/Trump seat.

[mds32]

Presidential election results for the upcoming specials on September 12:

NH HD Belknap 9: 2016: Clinton 39, Trump 56 | 2012: Obama 50, Romney 49

OK HD 46: Clinton 41, Trump 52 | 2012: Obama 40, Romney 60

MS HD 102 (Top 2 advance in no candidate is over 50%): Data no available, but this is a safe Republican seat.

Not seeing OK SD 44 on the list of special elections on ballotpedia, is it just a primary or am I missing something?

I think the Democrats will be taking OK-HD-46 due to the fact Democrats have been doing well in Oklahoma special elections as of late, 5/6 since 2015. And this one seems to be the "bluest" seat yet.

[mds32]

Yeah I feel Belknap-9 and OK-HD-46 are Tilt D pickups at this point. Due to the nature of special election swings we have seen this year for Democrats and Oklahoma Democratic over-performances.

[mds32]

3/6 of the Democrats wins have been in Oklahoma this year.

[mds32]

Check out a recap of last night's results HERE: https://ready2vote.com/blog/democrats-retake-momentum-after-two-special-election-victories

Also Democrats are already prepping for their next special election opportunities 2 weeks from now on Sept. 26th.

[mds32]

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

I saw that. If Democrats win this State Senate seat the GOP would barely have a 2/3rds majority in the State Senate. And Democrats would have more than 18 seats for the first time in five years. 17 seats was an all time low for Democrats.

[mds32]

Today we have a GOP primary for NH-HD-Hillsborough-15, it's a 52.66-42.88 Trump seat. The winner of the primary will face school board member Erika Connors (D) in the general election on Nov. 7th where Connors would seem to be a slight favorite if this special election environment remains a D+13 swing (in New Hampshire at least).

[mds32]

Next competitive special election:

https://ready2vote.com/special-elections

Oct. 3rd
MS-HD-102 Runoff
Missy McGee (R)
Kathryn Rehner (D)

This seat barely went to Trump. Let's see what happens!

[mds32]

Tomorrow we have the runoff election for MS-HD-102

[mds32]

Will be a primary election in SD 26 on the day of the Moore-Jones election. This has been an uncontested seat for a long time.

Its going to be a Democratic Primary and it is a very Democratic seat, this could help turnout a few more Jones voters. If polls started showing the U.S. Senate races within 51-49 range then this election could turnout more people than expected.

[mds32]

I predict Democrats go 1/3 with Steven Vincent being the winner for a State Senate Pickup. Anything where the GOP goes less than 3/3 is bad for them here.