Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Matty]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

[Matty]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

Are they bad(ish) pollsters because of the nature of daily tracking?

[Matty]

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

Trump had favorables in the 30s in those states on november 8th, as well, yet he still won.....

Maybe, just maybe, the democratic party is trending in a direction that midwest voters don't like. That absolutely has to be factored in before you write off trump in those states.
 

It wasn't just hillary that midwest voters rejected in 2016, they rejected dem senators and senate candidates who were clean and had no baggage, even beloved figures like Russ Feingold.

[Matty]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

[Matty]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Marty...you used to send me such loving messages...what changed?

You trigger me, bigly. I sometimes clench my fist in rage when I read your posts. Not because what you say is wrong...but because beyond all the snark and tongue-in-cheek ways of expressing your dislike of God Emperor Trump, you actually are probably right about the current state of things. And the current state of things upset me.

[Matty]

Trump, PM May, Abe, and Macron all have approval ratings in the 30s.

Are these all for different reasons, or are there some international factors as well?

[Matty]

What scandal did abe face? I wasn't aware of anything?

Also, I thought May was pretty popular before the snap election fiasco?

[Matty]

We have movement in gallup, finally

lol, barely

Disapprove 59 (-1)
Approval 35      (-)

[Matty]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

[Matty]

going from -27 to -18 is not exactly "noise"

He is probably rising a tiny bit from a combination of a solid governmental response to the houston flooding and avoiding controversy over the last few days.

The Irma storm that will hit Florida is going to be a huge story for the next few days. Will take more airtime off of russia stuff and other negatives.

He may get to like 40-55 or 41-54 but not much better than that.

[Matty]

Why do firms like ras and gallup even bother doing daily approval polls?

[Matty]

Rassy being rassy

Djt randomly pops to 45% again for no apparent reason

[Matty]

Man, every day I open this this thread intrigued as to whether there is any movement up or down for DJT, and the last 2 weeks have been boring. Gallup is just so stable right now.

[Matty]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

[Matty]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

[Matty]

Gallup, 9/12:

Approve 37 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (-1)

What seems apparent is that lack of trump in the news due to hurricane coverage is lowering his disapproval rating, but not raising his approval.

[Matty]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Describe a person who approves of Christie but disapproves of trump

[Matty]

56 (-1)
38 (-)

gallup today

[Matty]

Gallup

55
39 (+1)

[Matty]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

[Matty]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

When was the previous poll that it's comparing to?

early august

[Matty]

Thanks for the heads up. I stand corrected.

[Matty]

Is it true that Obama never dipped below 44% in approval from 2009-2016?

That seems fairly remarkable

[Matty]

According to that surverymonkey poll, trump has seen a 11 point swing in his approval/disapproval spread since late august. If Hurricanes and "bipartisanship optics" will do that, can you imagine what a war with north korea would do? (at least in the short term?)

Hope he doesn't get any ideas. lol

[Matty]

The AP poll appears to be an outlier.

No other poll even comes close to the cross tabs

33% of republicans do not disapprove of trump

That is about a 5 standard deviation difference than other recent polls