$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Matty]

Flake is a yes

I'm starting to think everyone but corker and Collins was a yes all along and was just trying to fake caring. About deficit

haha anyone who thought Corker and Flake and Johnson were anything but yes votes all along shouldn't comment on politics.

The reason I thought corker and flake were going to be tough to get is because they are both retiring (nothing to lose), and both dislike Donald trump

[Matty]

The motion by Sen. Nelson to send the bill back to committee fails 48-52. Senate now voting on a similar motion by Sen. Baldwin.

Might be a dumb question, but is a senator allowed to start as many motions as they like?

It seems like the ten or so motions since last night have all been started by different democrats

[Matty]

Collins is a yes according to Andy slavitt, who is citing McConnell himself

[Matty]

Next Vote: 2 ET: Cardin motion to send bill back to committee.

My god, when will this end? This is so silly even if within the rules

[Matty]

So when this (presumably) passes the Democrats should hang every aspect of this monstrosity around the neck of every Republican officeholder in the country. And if they don't win in a historic landslide next year, I will officially have lost faith in everything.

Stop being so dramatic. You can argue that it's stupid to add 1 trillion to deficit over ten years (which really isn't even a fraction of our current total debt) , but the bill itself is not radical in how it affects the after tax incomes of the American people. The vast majority of people will see a 1-3% decrease in their tax bill

Our politics is just too hysterical right now and I am tired of the faux outrage

[Matty]

I'm eager to see whats actually in this tax bill. I think the corporate tax cut is too deep but I still think a cut is a good thing. Collins salt amendment should also make things easier for middle class families, although I have my doubts it survives Paul Ryan.

Obama wanted corp tax reduced to 25%. Was it a "massive giveaway to the rich" then?

[Matty]

If I understood correctly, the House bill could really raise taxes on people like me on graduation tuition waivers at private universities by taxing the waiver as income.  Many of us have very little money and loads of debt, and they want to act like we are high rollers. I should be out by the time this would go into effect, and take limited courses at the moment, but man...

I don't know the details, so I would love if someone could explain this isn't as bad as it sounds.

No, it is just as bad as it sounds.

I'm with you guys on this one. I hope this gets scrapped in the conference committee. It doesn't seem like something that would bring in THAT much revenue, anyway. How many grad students are there as a % of population.

The GOOD news is that this little detail is getting lots of attention (negative attention I may add), and hopefully it scares some house members into scrapping this change.

PS- arch, sorry I was being a turd to you earlier this month. I was going through some stuff and was taking my frustration out on this board.

[Matty]

I'm glad theyre passing it. Only makes 2018 worse for them

Here is a slight historical question. Ignoring whether laws and legislation are good or bad for the people, when was the last time a party in power was significantly *helped* in a midterm by legislation they had passes in the years and months prior to the midterm elections?

Was it 2002, 1998?

[Matty]

I'm glad theyre passing it. Only makes 2018 worse for them

Here is a slight historical question. Ignoring whether laws and legislation are good or bad for the people, when was the last time a party in power was significantly *helped* in a midterm by legislation they had passes in the years and months prior to the midterm elections?

Was it 2002, 1998?

Well, everyone was really excited about their free money in the mail in 2003...but that was all overshadowed by the war. What happened in 1998 besides the GOP being penalized (though they still technically won) for being assholes?

To be fair, I think 9/11 influenced the 2002 midterms more than anything else. Bush's approvals were still above 50 then.

[Matty]

Lankford is supposedly a yes.

When will this thing actually be voted on? Tonight?

[Matty]

At the end of the day, who were the only R senators who actually were willing at any point to vote NO?

Susan Collins
Bob Corker
MAYBE McCain?

I just don't think ojhnson, daines, or flake were ever seriously opposed. They probably orchestrated their opposition to get amendments and changes that McConnell had promised them weeks ago, all for optics of appearing to "fight.

[Matty]

If I understood correctly, the House bill could really raise taxes on people like me on graduation tuition waivers at private universities by taxing the waiver as income.  Many of us have very little money and loads of debt, and they want to act like we are high rollers. I should be out by the time this would go into effect, and take limited courses at the moment, but man...

I don't know the details, so I would love if someone could explain this isn't as bad as it sounds.

Don't tax me. Tax that guy behind the tree!

Krazen, don't be a hack. This provision needs to be removed. Grad students earn like 25k a year if that. They don't need to see their taxes go up by a large margin.

You can support this bill and also support the conference committee scrapping this small detail.

Although, you seem like someone who would enjoy punished grad students with higher taxes because they are "stupid libtards", which you perceive as a wicked form of a win, even though it violates your principles that all americans should pay lower taxes.

[Matty]

At this point, it's going to be 52-48 on straight party line vote. No Dems voting Aye, no Rs voting Nay.

I think 51-49 will be it. Corker will vote No.

He just told a reporter "I don't want to talk about anything. Leave me alone"

He is a defeated man and frankly he comes out of this looking like Trump's b*tch

[Matty]

I'm glad theyre passing it. Only makes 2018 worse for them

Here is a slight historical question. Ignoring whether laws and legislation are good or bad for the people, when was the last time a party in power was significantly *helped* in a midterm by legislation they had passes in the years and months prior to the midterm elections?

Was it 2002, 1998?

I have a big book on historical mid term elections and I'm at work now but I'll come back this question later

I think regardless of what happens prior to the midterm, the best barometer to go by is the incumbent president's approval rating. Bill Clinton was super popular in 1998, and everything the GOP did only made him more so, and that lead to a good midterm for Democrats. Likewise, GWB was made exceptionally popular due to a rally-around-the-flag event and that made 2002 good for Republicans. I forget the exact numbers, but Clinton and GWB were sporting mid-high 60s in approvals going into their midterms.

Point being that if Trump still has awful approval ratings in October/November 2018, the GOP is going to get trounced.

This is probably true, but trump might be a different animal. We shall see.

I am not saying the following to downplay a dem wave in 2018, but I do wonder if Trump's reelection chances would increase if dems controlled congress and crafted popular legislation he would sign.

[Matty]

If grad students do not have the means to pursue their studies as gentlemen, perhaps they should study a subject where full funding is the norm? We're not talking about undergrad where you drink and sexually assault your schoolmates at your parents' expense.

That's the thing, they're TAXING the full funding so that we can't afford it. Without that tax, we're already living on scraps, going to food pantries, etc.

Arch, what are you studying in grad school? Are you also teaching any discussion sections for undegrad classes? When I went to school, grad students lead the discussion sections.

[Matty]

Assuming this senate vote is finished by the end of today, let's all  give a hand to Dwarven Dragon, castro, and yank131 for their awesome coverage and updates about where the bill and the senators stand.

I look forward to more updates during conference committee stuff.

Thanks guys! Such an awesome forum and thread!

[Matty]

If grad students do not have the means to pursue their studies as gentlemen, perhaps they should study a subject where full funding is the norm? We're not talking about undergrad where you drink and sexually assault your schoolmates at your parents' expense.

That's the thing, they're TAXING the full funding so that we can't afford it. Without that tax, we're already living on scraps, going to food pantries, etc.

Arch, what are you studying in grad school? Are you also teaching any discussion sections for undegrad classes? When I went to school, grad students lead the discussion sections.

I'm studying Linguistics (Ph.D.), a social science with diverse applications all over the economy from civilian to military. And yes, I teach a class of undergrad students. For full disclosure, I am paid approximately $16,000 a year, and my apartment is $900 a month with all utilities except power. I'm also a full time graduate student and participate in a number of extracurricular and professional development activities/events.

This is the norm for graduate students who are working to study. We are honest people looking to improve and contribute to society. Let us get there and work for our country and our people.

Linguistics seems like a very interesting field of study. How do you like teaching a class? I hope the students this semester for you are not too annoying, haha.

[Matty]

Is there any indication at all about when the actual vote will take place? Will it be sometime today?

[Matty]

Susan Collins is officially a yes

Does the Alabama race even matter now regarding tax reform?

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/936705353483513856


Um, WHY?

You want to unite the public against this tax bill and so at the height of the debate you decide to go with Frankenstein of all people?

The two are completely unrelated

A senator has a right to voice his objections

[Matty]

This thread seems to have slowed a bit

Will get crazy tonight

[Matty]

Any new developments?

[Matty]

Are they really going to vote on a bill with handwritten annotations on it? Really?

Is that allowed anymore?

reporters are tweeting that it's not uncommon to have handwritten notes on margins.

[Matty]

This is a random question, but are senators allowed to bring objects into the senate chamber, like a noise machine that makes it hard to hear or could cause headaches for the older senators that would delay the vote?

Are senators allowed to throw food at other senators?

[Matty]

CBO finding: Tax bill makes tax code more progressive.

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