who do you THINK will win the Democratic nomination?

[© tweed]

May 2006

Mark Warner 42.5%
Hillary Clinton 37.5%
Al Gore 6.3%
John Edwards 3.1%
Other 10.9%

August 2006

Mark Warner 37.2%
Russ Feingold 20.9%
Hillary Clinton 20.9%
Al Gore 11.6%
John Edwards 4.7%
Other 4.7%

November 2006

Hillary Clinton 43.2%
Barack Obama 24.3%
Al Gore 10.8%
Evan Bayh 10.8%
John Edwards 5.4%
Other (excl. Feingold) 5.4%

March 2007

Hillary Clinton 41.7%
Barack Obama 27.8%
John Edwards 5.6%
Al Gore 2.8%
Other 22.2% [most of these people with Richardson in mind]

April 2007

Barack Obama 35.2%
Hillary Clinton 27.8%
John Edwards 18.5%
Bill Richardson 13%
Al Gore 3.7%
Other 1.9%

June 2007

Hillary Clinton 44%
Barack Obama 32%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 4%
Other (excl. Richardson) 4%

July 2007

Hillary Clinton 55.6%
Barack Obama 20%
Al Gore 11.1%
Bill Richardson 8.9%
John Edwards 2.2%
Other 2.2%

August 2007

Hillary Clinton 70.5%
Barack Obama 11.4%
Bill Richardson 9.1%
John Edwards 6.8%
Other (excl. Gore) 2.3%

September 2007

Hillary Clinton 71.2%
Barack Obama 13.6%
John Edwards 8.5%
Bill Richardson 5.1%
Al Gore 1.7%

October 2007

Hillary Clinton 80.8%
Al Gore 7.7%
Barack Obama 3.8%
John Edwards 3.8%
Bill Richardson 1.9%
Other 1.9%

November 2007

Hillary Clinton 62.2%
Barack Obama 26.7%
John Edwards 11.1%

December 21-23, 2007

Hillary Clinton 46.7%
Barack Obama 37.8%
John Edwards 15.6%

December 31, 2007 - January 2, 2008

Hillary Clinton 46.2%
Barack Obama 33.3%
John Edwards 20.5%

January 5-8, 2008

Barack Obama 78.4%
Hillary Clinton 19.6%
Al Gore 2%

January 10-13, 2008

Hillary Clinton 56.4%
Barack Obama 40%
Al Gore 3.6%

[© tweed]

All of the above criticisms of Hillary are why I think Obama gets the nom.  He does dramatically better in a state once he starts campaigning there, and I think that continues.  SC will give him a nice bump, if he can spin the "black vote" thing the right way.

he can't campaign in 21 states at once.

he's going to win SC, but he can't do what you suggest he does on ST and will get killed.