The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

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Romney up to 78 to win South Carolina. seems a touch high but gives you an idea that we are, after all, watching a coronation.

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kamikaze Grinch surge


Romney 83
Gingrich 10
Paul 4
Santorum 0.9
Jeb Bush 0.4



SC...

Romney 60.1
Gingrich 35.0
Santorum 0.7
Paul 0.3

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If I knew how intrade worked/had money to spend, I would buy a lot of SC Gingrich right now.

you expect him to weather the ex-wife storm?

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SC is now 56.2 - 40.5

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my reaction upon going to Intrade just now: "what the fck"

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Grinchy up to 78.3 in SC, 35.0 in FL.  Game On!

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67-27.3 Romney in the nomination market.  a 4+ point swing in both stocks.  Gingrich in prohibitive favorite territory in SC (90) and Mitt a 3:2 favorite in FL

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Grinchy has swung into about a 3:2 favorite to win Florida now.

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Romney 62.0 - Gingrich 28.8 to be nominated.

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Daniels 1.8, Jeb 1.0, Christie 0.6, field 0.4, Rubio 0.2.  lol

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-the total bids on winning party total 100.0.  a unique shorting opportunity

-I feel ask if winning party-Dem should have gained a few points last night

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VIRGINIA.ROMNEY was last traded at 85.0.  huge buying opportunity.

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I wouldn't be shocked if some Intraders didn't know about the VA ballot situation.  maybe also the possibility of a (very) late lawsuit or something.

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Either Paul or Santorum will win Washington. Romney doesn't have much of a chance.

how would you know that?

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These people are seriously brokering it up. I mean, really? Sarah?

REP.NOM.2012.BROKERED is up to 33.0.  I don't think we got anywhere near that in 2008.

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Romney now a 2:1 favorite to win Michigan

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kids did everything they could to avoid nomming Romney.  just couldn't do it.  respect.

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huge Santorum rebound... 10.0 on last transact to win the nomination

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you can call it what you like but I think more generally it's about the collection of polls not showing any quantifiable Romney surge post-debate, as was anticipated.  and also the enduring possibility that Santorum wins the statewide PV in Michigan, which MSM would probably build a whole narrative around that embarasses Romney.  "omg lost his home state still not embraced by the base omgg Super Tuesday!!"  then Ricky wins Washington on that first beautiful Saturday of March, and off we go into the big show.

a bit of a personal note now, I have the bug.  I'm really into this co-worker girl.  she's 21, from Indiana.  the last thing her grandparents told her before coming to Ithaca was "don't let the liberals get to you" or etc.  and now here she is, good friends w/ a Marxist-Leninist agitating fool like young Tweed.  so I invited her to a Super Tuesday party which I'll arrange.  I have an exam that Thursday but I'm so looking forward to this.  if I have it at my apartment I really should clean the bathroom.

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Romney got slaughtered today.  down over 9 points on last transaction.

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Intrade is proving to be overly reactive to whatever the latest PPP results are.

haha, you should have been awake at 10pm Eastern.

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This thread should be stickied.

no, it should probably be closed as soon as Gingrich and Santorum drop out, and we can open a general election edition.

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This thread should be stickied.

no, it should probably be closed as soon as Gingrich and Santorum drop out, and we can open a general election edition.

Why couldn't we use this as the GE edition?

posterity prefers duality.

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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

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I think Santorum is way overvalued in Kansas... last traded at 92.6

Romney and Gingrich are not even bothering to campaign there.

why would Romney campaign there?  then if he loses it's a story.  I'd put Santorum at 80ish to win.