Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Mr. Morden]

If Wilkie and Windsor, along with Bandt support the ALP, if Katter and Oakeshott support the Coalition that would be 75-75...

The question could therefore be, if Windsor and Wilkie move to the ALP, would that put enough pressure on the other two to move also?

My hunch is that, if Wilkie and Windsor go to Labor, then at least one of the other two would too (more likely Oakeshott than Katter), which should be enough for Labor to form a government.

OTOH, if Windsor goes with the Coalition, things will remain a lot more up in the air.

EDIT: Just saw on SBS World News that Oakeshott says he's hoping to make a decision by the end of the week as well.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but according to this:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-15508-NAT.htm

the latest vote tally now has the Coalition ahead in the national 2PP vote....by 636 votes out of over 10 million cast.  Not that the national popular vote technically counts for anything.  But it'll surely enter into the Coalition's talking points for why it has a "moral claim" on holding power.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, the Coalition is surging in the betting markets now on the question of who will form a government.  The momentum is definitely with them, as there have been a few hints dropped to suggest that the conservative Independents might end up going with them after all, after having flirted with Labor.

[Mr. Morden]

The Greens have signed up for an alliance with Labor:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/greens-sign-up-with-labor-20100901-14jo8.html

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Of course, this does little towards giving them a majority in the House.  But Labor+Greens would constitute a majority in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the three key Independents may not decide which way to go until next week Tuesday:

link

[Mr. Morden]

While the majority of voters in the electorates of the three key Independents favor the Coalition over Labor, we now have a few national polls that show voters nationwide hoping the Independents side with Labor:

link

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/04/newspoll-alp-favoured-for-government-47-39/

[Mr. Morden]

The three country Independents say that they'll announce their decision today:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

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(It's presently 10:46am here, so 2pm is in about 3 hours.)

The betting markets are giving ~70% chance that Labor forms the next government, and ~30% chance that it's the Coalition.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, they're now saying the press conference will be at 3pm:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

[Mr. Morden]

Katter is backing the Coalition, but the other two are going ahead with their 3pm press conference....which possibly means that Katter is splitting with the other two, so maybe they're going with Labor?

[Mr. Morden]

So what happens if one of the remaining Independents go with Labor and the other goes with the Coalition?

There's a stalemate for a while, as each side tries to convince someone on the other side to defect.  If no one is willing to defect, then I think there would have to be a new election called.