A year from now, who will already be tipping a 2016 run?

[Mr. Morden]

Christie, if he runs for re-election, will presumably be coy until that happens.

A huge part of the tea leaf reading will be about whether Christie does in fact run for reelection.  If he runs for reelection, does he have to try position himself more to the center in order to win, in a way that would preclude a 2016 race for the GOP presidential nomination?  If he doesn't run for reelection, does that mean he's running for president, a la Romney's retirement after one term as MA governor?

[Mr. Morden]

Jindal, McDonnell, O'Malley, and Schweitzer are all term-limited, aren't they?  I guess that means they'll probably run for president, since they'll have nothing else to do.

[Mr. Morden]

So I just read that Cuomo is divorced and never remarried, but has a live-in girlfriend in his NYC-area house (though Cuomo obviously spends more time in Albany these days).  Not sure how that'll impact his presidential hopes.  Obviously, if he's interested in the White House, he should get married. 

Also, 2016 Iowa watch is already starting, with Rand Paul and Ken Cuccinelli making the trip there next month:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/03/watch-rand-cuccinelli-to-iowa-119044.html

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know if Schweitzer intends to run in 2016 or not, but the fact that he's willing to go there on Romney's religion suggests that a Schweitzer 2016 campaign could be, uh, interesting if Romney is the incumbent:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/04/19/brian-schweitzer-mitt-romney-s-family-came-from-a-polygamy-commune-in-mexico.html

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Vilsack might run again (his 2008 campaign lasted like two weeks or so):

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120508/NEWS09/120507028/Vilsack-would-consider-another-White-House-run

He says the only offices he'd consider running for in the future would be president or vice president.

[Mr. Morden]

I think she'll retire from politics after her term as Sec of State is over whether that's January 2013 or January 2017.  I'm leaning more toward her being replaced in a potential Obama second term, not because she isn't a good SoS, but because she's incredibly tired and worn out.  30+ years in politics is a long time.

She's already announced her retirement as SoS at the end of Obama's first term.

Whether that means she's also not going to run for prez in 2016 is open to debate.  She says she's not going to run for prez, but others have said the same before and then changed their minds.  Her time in politics is nothing compared to some of the others who've run for president in the past.  Look at Bob Dole in 1996, for goodness sake.  He was older and in politics longer without the kind of break that HRC will have from 2013-2015.  People said he wouldn't run because he was too old.  Same for McCain.  Same for Reagan, for that matter.

[Mr. Morden]

Fwiw, Rendell says he thinks HRC will run:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/ed-rendell-i-believe-hillary-will-run

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And on the same day, Pelosi encourages her as well:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/06/03/MNH01ORI6T.DTL&ao=all

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[Mr. Morden]

Speculation that Rand Paul might actually be more likely to run in 2016 if it's against incumbent President Romney than if Obama's reelected and there's an open contest on the GOP side:

http://www.nhpr.org/post/mitt-romney-vs-rand-paul-2016

[Mr. Morden]

Christie on 2016: "If there's an opportunity for me to serve in another capacity and I think I have something to add to the mix, I don't think I'd back away from it."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/christie-says-hes-open-2016-presidential-bid