Forget 2016...

[Mr. Morden]

Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo or Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom
John Hickenlooper
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Lisa Madigan
Martin O'Malley
Brian Schweitzer
Debbie Wasserman Schultz

Sam Brownback
Chris Christie
Ken Cuccinelli
Jeff Flake
Nikki Haley
Bobby Jindal
Susana Martinez
Rob McKenna
Rand Paul
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan or Scott Walker
John Thune

[Mr. Morden]

Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom

You don't think Jerry Brown will be re-nominated in 14?  If one of these guys is first elected in 18, it'd be like if Rubio ran now.  I assume plenty of people first elected as a senator or governor between now and 16 maybe 17 will get chatter and some may run, but 18 seems pushing it a bit.

Edit: It's possible a downturn could put Brown in Patterson's position where the incumbent can't win but his party could easily but it's a semi-rare, specific circumstance.

Well, I was also thinking maybe Boxer retires in 2016 since she's getting old, then one of them could run for her senate seat.  But even if that happens, I guess it's still pretty unlikely that they'd then run for prez in 2020, so I guess they should be more likely 2024 candidates.

What about Antonio Villaraigosa?  Does he have any ambitions to run for higher office?  Did his affair and ensuing divorce destroy the chances of that happening, or would all of that be treated like old news that no one cares about anymore by the time he runs for something?

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, my generic thinking on the Democratic nomination in 2020 is as follows:

If the Democrats have a contested primary in 2020, then it means that the GOP must have won the 2016 presidential election.  The question is then, who was the Democratic nominee in 2016?  The two most likely possibilities are:

1) Hillary Clinton
2) a man

(#3: A woman who is not Hillary Clinton is also possible though far less likely, as there aren't that many likely female 2016 presidential candidates aside from HRC, so it's not clear that any of them runs in '16, or that they would necessarily win the nomination.)

If Hillary Clinton runs in 2016, then I expect that a lot of the candidates who might otherwise want to run that year sit it out to avoid going up against the Clinton juggernaut.  If so, then 2020 might see several of those people who we're now calling 2016 candidates (e.g., Cuomo, O'Malley, Schweitzer) finally decide to run.

OTOH, if the 2016 Democratic nominee is a man, then there'll be a strong push for him to pick a female running mate, and the two most obvious options are Gillibrand and Klobuchar.  If the ticket then goes on to lose to the GOP candidate, then, assuming that losing female running mate (whether it be Gillibrand, Klobuchar, or whoever) had a decent performance on the campaign trail, she'd be in a strong position to be the early 2020 Democratic nomination frontrunner, as she'd probably be the most well known Democratic woman in the country at that point (aside from HRC, who'll be too old to run in 2020).

[Mr. Morden]

^^
Those are mostly 2024 candidates.  Maybe Booker in 2020 if he's elected governor next year, but otherwise those guys would probably wait until 2024.  (I know I listed Newsom and Harris as possible 2020ers, but as Joementum pointed out, 2024 is more likely.)

[Mr. Morden]

^ Those predictions are eerie...and impressive of course.

That's nothing.  Look at what I was predicting back in 2001, before the forum even existed:

I think the next president will be some guy named Barack Obama.  This may seem weird, since it rhymes with Osama, and that might seem like a liability given the events of last month, but I don't think it'll be a big deal.

Then, after Barack Obama, the next president will be Donald Trump.

Pretty incredibly, huh?