North Korea declares War on South Korea

[Mr. Morden]

Let's see if they actually do something this time. I'm kind of hoping they do miscalculate, and provoke South Korea and the United States into actually attacking them. Then we can end this menace once and for all.

While the North would lose, don't most experts anticipate that the North shelling Seoul alone would potentially make it the bloodiest war that the world has seen in decades?

Here's one take on a potential "Korean War II" for example:

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/27/world/asia/south-north-korea-war-scenario

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

The biggest clue for North Korea's intentions is the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They need tha t revenue far too badly to cut themselves off via saber-rattling. Since it was built it's remained open through every escalation.

North Korea is now messing with Kaesong: http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/03/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

This period of saber rattling seems like its gone on longer and gotten more heated then normal; I don't know what could possibly make the regime think this much brinksmanship is necessary.

I'd assume that Kim Jong-un is trying to act like a tough guy to cement his position within the upper echelons of power in North Korea.  He's staring down the USA to prove to the generals that he's a serious person or something.

[Mr. Morden]

Except this time if the Norks do an artillery strike, sink a ship, steal a ship, attempt an assassination,etc, they are freaking done.  Everybody on this side of the table is in agreement on that.  Dicking around with his sabre he may be doing, but if he even grips it a little too tight, he's getting a cruise missile down his throat.  You've heard of thin ice?  Well, it's April in Pyongyang too.

Not disputing any of that.  Just saying that there has to be a motive, and this seems like the most likely one.

[Mr. Morden]

Harvest is middle of this month, correct? Once that's done, things might get really serious.

I'm seriously thinking this will end in a clash at least. Also, never underestimate the delusion of a dictator when going up against the US... Milosevic, the Taliban and Saddam all should have known that going up against the most powerful military force on Earth was going to end up with them in a cell, dead or both.

Milosevic, the Taliban, and Saddam were uo against America whether they wanted to be or not...

And they all could have avoided their fates.

How much did Milosevic's fate actually have to do with the Kosovo conflict?

[Mr. Morden]

There are usually some survivors from dictatorships that lose wars - and many dictators end up in exile rather than dead.

Though it's less common in today's world than in the days of yore.  Now that there's the ICC and similar international courts, it's harder for deposed dictators to find a safe place to escape to.

[Mr. Morden]

Regarding the question of whether North Korea has nuclear weapons, someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that the seismic measurements made by the USGS of the previous North Korea nuke tests suggested that if it wasn't an actual earthquake (highly unlikely) then it would have to be some kind of nuclear detonation.  However, all that indicates is that they have nuclear bombs that they can explode underground.  Do they actually have bombs that are small enough for them to transport, to deliver to South Korea or some other target?  No evidence of that, AFAIK.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/China+imposes+trade+banking+sanctions+Korea/8374243/story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.