CfRES (R)/TargetPoint Consulting: IA, NH, SC & NV polls

[Mr. Morden]

3000 polled in NH and only 2% cell-phone ?

Is that most likely a typo ?

I assume they wanted a really large sample in NH for some other reason (polling questions not related to the presidential primaries).  I guess landlines are easier to poll, because of a higher response rate?  If so, they just didn't need to bother calling that many cell phones in NH, because 2% of such a large sample is already enough that they can just upweight that group to account for any demographic skew.  Whereas with the smaller samples, you need to call more cellphones as a fraction of the total number of calls, in order to get a decent demographic sample.

No idea if that's the reason, but it's the most plausible explanation I can come up with.

[Mr. Morden]

It then depends if the topline results here are based on the 3000 respondents or only on an undersample of 400 like in the other states.

Because 60/400 would yield a cell-phone %age of 15%, which would not be bad but probably still too low. Aren't cell phones already used by 40-80% of people these days ?

Which means the 3000er sample might heavily underrepresent young GOP primary voters.

No, that's not how it works.  Regardless of how big or small the sample is, they do demographic weighting, including weighting to account for differences between the landline and cell phone only households.  So all 3000 respondents are represented in the poll, but if the 2% cell phone only sample turns out to be disproportionately young group, then they upweight the results from younger voters in the poll to make it more demographically realistic.

[Mr. Morden]

The lack of discussion on Lindseymentum in this thread greatly disturbs me.

Can we call his following Graham crackers?

Since Ben Carson will presumably siphon off the black Republican vote, I guess the answer is yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Graham-entum appears to be weak in PPP's poll:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/566277708284698624

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