Has anyone included climate change effects in world population projections?

[Mr. Morden]

Just curious: In the very long term estimates of global population projections, that attempt to predict the Earth's population in 2100 and beyond, do any of the predictions account for the impact of climate change on human population?  Is it anticipated that, if nothing is done to mitigate climate change, it'll mean a significant hit to the Earth's population a century or so hence, or is the idea that it would just make the existing population more miserable?

[Mr. Morden]

Climate change (=> catastrophic events that are maybe caused by it) are killing "only" 100.000 people or so each year.

Compared to fertility changes etc. these numbers are less than peanuts and won't impact population growth rates at all.

Right, but I thought that the idea was that a century from now, the impact would be much greater, with sea levels rising, various regions becoming uninhabitable, etc?  Not sure how many that would kill, as opposed to affecting the # of new births, but at some point it's going to have an impact on global population, no?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, let me rephrase the question: Even if no one has ever done a rigorous calculation to produce specific numbers, has anyone ever offered even a qualitative guess as to what climate change would do to world population a century or so hence, if we were to imagine something on the more pessimistic side of predictions for the impact of climate change?  OK, so it makes certain regions of the Earth unliveable.  What does that mean, in practice?  Birth rates fall, death rates rise, or just mass migration of people to more liveable regions where they have just as many babies as they'd have in their homeland?

Any way to guess which of those factors is dominant?  Any way to even take a shot in the dark as to whether 2 or 3  or 4 C or whatever of warming is enough to impact world population in any notable way, or would it take much more than that to do anything?

I mean we have stuff like this talking about "human extinction" within a century because of climate change, and I'm wondering how alarmist that is, and what is the less alarmist version of that.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

This thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=269954.0

reminded me of this topic.  OK, so a reasonably large fraction of the world becomes unliveable by 2100.  So what happens with world population?  Does it go into a decline far beyond what the UN population projections are forecasting?