IA-Selzer/DMR: Cruz leads by 10

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-12-12/cruz-soars-to-front-of-the-pack-in-iowa-poll-trump-support-stays-flat-ii3p88rp

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Do you agree or disagree with a candidate who supports the following?

Says climate change is a hoax:
agree 57%
disagree 35%

Wants to deport 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally:

agree 54%
disagree 37%

Wants to make all abortion illegal, without exceptions for rape, incest, or to save
the life of the mother:

agree 40%
disagree 56%

Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law:

agree 49%
disagree 35%

Supports a tax reform plan that cuts taxes on every American, including the very
wealthiest:
agree 74%
disagree 21%

Wants to send at least 20,000 troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria:
agree 61%
disagree 28%

Wants to repeal financial reform laws enacted after the banking crisis in 2008:
agree 58%
disagree 20%

Would be willing to shoot down Russian planes if they violated a no-fly zone in
Syria:
agree 44%
disagree 41%

Wants to abolish the Internal Revenue Service:
agree 61%
disagree 31%

[Mr. Morden]

49% of GOP caucus goers support single-payer healthcare

What % of voters know what "single payer" is?

[Mr. Morden]

Changes since october:
Cruz +21
Christie +2
Trump +2
Bush +1
Rubio +1
Huckabee =
Kasich =
Santorum - 1
Paul - 2
Fiorina - 3
Carson - 15

And of course, there's about as much time between today and caucus day as there was between their October poll and their December poll.  So if some candidates are capable of moving up or down by 15-20 points or so, still plenty of time for things to turn upside down again.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/12/12/big-shakeup-iowa-poll-cruz-soars-lead/77199800/

Cruz has a whopping 45% support from self-described “evangelical conservatives”.

Trump voters:
49% have Cruz as their second choice.

Carson voters:
35% have Cruz as their second choice.

17% have Trump as their second choice.

Cruz voters:
26% have Carson as their second choice.
25% have Trump as their second choice.

Also, this is the first Iowa Selzer poll since 2014 in which Christie has a net positive favorability rating.

And how pathetic is it that 2012 GOP caucus winner Rick Santorum is at -1 in favorability?