#NeverTrump GOP endorsements LATEST: Graham and Lee voted McMullin

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I'm still waiting for a single high profile Republican who previously ruled out voting for Trump in the GE to change their minds and endorse him.  There've been plenty of folks who went from undecided to endorsing him, but among those who said months ago that they wouldn't support Trump in the GE, none of them have flip-flopped and currently backing Trump.

I thought folks were saying that all the #NeverTrump Republican politicians would fall in line?  We're past the RNC now, so what gives?  If there was going to be a mass migration of these folks into the Trump column, wouldn't it have happened by now?

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I'm still waiting for a single high profile Republican who previously ruled out voting for Trump in the GE to change their minds and endorse him.  There've been plenty of folks who went from undecided to endorsing him, but among those who said months ago that they wouldn't support Trump in the GE, none of them have flip-flopped and currently backing Trump.

I thought folks were saying that all the #NeverTrump Republican politicians would fall in line?  We're past the RNC now, so what gives?  If there was going to be a mass migration of these folks into the Trump column, wouldn't it have happened by now?

Is it possible that some of these folks share my opinion of Trump? If so, you have your answer.

Well, yes, I was being facetious in my post.  Of course many of these folks aren't endorsing Trump and will never endorse him because they think he's terrible.  My post was tweaking folks like Ljube, who keep insisting that the #NeverTrump Republican politicians will drop their opposition to Trump any minute now.  E.g.:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=235312.msg5041871#msg5041871

[Mr. Morden]

One thing that's been hard for me to reconcile. Polls have broadly suggested that Trump is competitive with Clinton, pulling nearly all Republican voters (like 85%-90%). At the same time, rather significant numbers of GOP officeholders and party people are out against Trump. And presumably even more of them are privately opposed to him but feel the need to prioritize unity in their public image.

Now, I know people say that there is a gap between the "establishment" and the Republican voters (and clearly there is). But surely, Republican politicians must SOMEWHAT represent real Republicans? Like, I'd have expected there to be a decent chunk of Republican voters who'd feel similarly repulsed by Trump.

In the CBS/NYT poll, for example, if you look at the 3-way matchup that includes Gary Johnson, the %age of Republicans backing Trump is about 80%.  The other 20% are either for Johnson, for Clinton, or undecided.  (And same with the Democrats and Clinton.  Only about 80% of them back Clinton if you list a 3rd party option.  Also, ~20% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, just as ~20% of Dems have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.)

And the thing is, among Republican *politicians*, that is actually pretty representative.  About 80% of them have at least nominally said that they "support the nominee".  The rest are mostly undecided, with many saying they'll write in a name or not vote for president at all.  But that is unusual.  Usually, ~99% of politicians belonging to one of the major political parties supports that party's nominee for president, even if the voters are unenthusiastic.  Usually the party defectors among the electorate are not actually represented by politicians.  This time, it looks like they are, at least on the Republican side.

[Mr. Morden]

Rep. Richard Hanna (R-NY) is voting for Clinton.

I think that makes him the first #NeverTrump Republican currently in Congress to endorse Clinton.  The others who've done it are all former officials who are now out of politics.  The other #NeverTrumpers still in office are mostly talking about writing in a name, or have flirted with the idea of voting third party.

[Mr. Morden]

PA GOP Rep. Charlie Dent will not vote for Trump or Clinton....

http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2016/08/02/charlie-dent-pennsylvania-support-for-trump-gop-lead-tapper-intv.cnn

I've added him to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

A Republican strategist who's advising candidates in swing districts is urging candidates to distance themselves from Trump, potentially going as far as un-endorsing him:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Sanford switched a few weeks ago from #NeverTrump to #Ihaven'tdecidedyet:

link

So we have at least a couple of formerly #NeverTrump folks who switched to undecided, but that's more than offset by the increase in #NeverTrump GOP politicos who've been added to the list in recent weeks.  I'm still not aware of a single remotely prominent person who previously said that they wouldn't vote for Trump in the GE who is now supporting him.

[Mr. Morden]

Robert Mann
‏@RTMannJr
Former RNC chair Marc Racicot tells MSNBC he will not vote for Donald Trump.

He already said that a month ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230807.msg5144207#msg5144207

[Mr. Morden]

Most of the #NeverTrump Republicans continue to be vague about who exactly they *will* vote for in November, though (by definition) they've ruled out Trump, and most seem to have ruled out Clinton.  Will be interesting to see how many still haven't commented on that by election day (which means a secret vote for Clinton is a strong possibility) vs. how many say they'll write in a name vs. how many (if any) publicly endorse Johnson.

Who is the strongest bet to publicly endorse Johnson?  Justin Amash?

[Mr. Morden]

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http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/former-top-gingrich-ally-calls-trump-nom-mistake-of-historic-proportions.html

OK, just added him to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, 50 G.O.P. Officials Warn Donald Trump Would Put Nation’s Security ‘at Risk’.

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Another big day in the world of Rs disavowing Trump, and it looks like Clinton's decision to amplify the temperament issue is paying dividends.

Wow... Chertoff and Ridge!

Chertoff and Ridge have both been #NeverTrump for many months now.  They both signed this earlier letter from many of the same people vowing not to support Trump:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=230807.msg4950388#msg4950388

[Mr. Morden]

Added Collins and Milliken to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican EPA Administrators Endorse Clinton

Since EPA administrator is a Cabinet level position, I've added them to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

A list of Republicans supporting Clinton:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/09/all-of-the-top-republicans-voting-for-hillary-clinton-instead-of-donald-trump.html

[Mr. Morden]

Former Congresswoman Mary Bono gets added to the list:

https://twitter.com/MaryBonoUSA/status/762997537728974848

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OK, added her to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

Off the top of my head, I can think of at least 10 Republican Senators who haven’t even offered an Ayotte-esque “I support the nominee, though with reservations” boilerplate statement of support:

Coats
Collins
Cruz
Flake
Graham
Heller
Kirk
Lee
Sasse
Toomey

Looks like Coats is no longer on this list, btw, as he currently supports Trump:

http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/local-politics/Coats-will-continue-to-support-Trump-14589416

So we're currently at 9 sitting Republican US Senators not supporting Trump, though not all of them all #NeverTrump.  Some, like Heller and Toomey, haven't ruled out a Trump endorsement at some point in the future.

[Mr. Morden]

Chris Shays says he's voting for Clinton:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/10/opinions/chris-shays-why-im-voting-for-hillary-clinton/index.html

[Mr. Morden]

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https://twitter.com/DaveKIRO7/status/763549067347628032

OK, I'll count that as #NeverTrump, and I've added him to the list.  I hesitated a bit just because several members of Congress have tried to be cute over the word "endorse", saying that while they'll vote for Trump, they won't offer him an "endorsement", but I don't see anything to indicate that Reichert is trying to split hairs like that.

[Mr. Morden]

I missed former Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez earlier, but he's #NeverTrump, and he's endorsed Clinton:

https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/764816999968940033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Added him to the list in the OP.

[Mr. Morden]

So I guess Mark Sanford is the one formerly #NeverTrump Republican to have reversed himself into an endorsement of Trump:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/opinion/i-support-you-donald-trump-now-release-your-tax-returns.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

However, he still decided to write that NYT op-ed about why Trump should release his tax returns.

[Mr. Morden]

Jeff Flake's conditions for supporting Trump: Apologize to McCain, Mexican immigrants, and Judge Curiel, drop the Muslim ban and reverse himself on immigration and trade.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/blog/business/2016/08/sen-jeff-flake-donald-trump-needs-to-apologize.html

I'm not going to hold my breath on Trump agreeing to any of that.  

[Mr. Morden]

Former Secretaries of State Kissinger and Schultz say they won’t endorse anyone this time, thus putting them in the George Bush category of “refuse to talk about who they’re voting for”:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/02/politics/henry-kissinger-george-shultz-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

That said, Schultz a couple of weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/765204633048354816

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And so I’ve updated in the list in the OP accordingly.

I’m also taking Reichert off the #NeverTrump list, because he’s clarified that even though he won’t endorse Trump, he *might* still vote for him:

http://mynorthwest.com/368112/congressman-reichert-will-never-endorse-trump-but-his-vote/

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[Mr. Morden]

Also, as noted in the Evan McMullin thread, at least one person on my #NeverTrump list has endorsed McMullin:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/former-senator-endorses-evan-mcmullin/article/2004138

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/772426553523367936

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[Mr. Morden]

Only eight?  Off the top of my head, I can think of at least 10 Republican Senators who haven’t even offered an Ayotte-esque “I support the nominee, though with reservations” boilerplate statement of support:

Coats
Collins
Cruz
Flake
Graham
Heller
Kirk
Lee
Sasse
Toomey

To add to the above: I think Cory Gardner also hasn't endorsed Trump, or even given any kind of "support the nominee" type of statement.  So that's 11 sitting Republican Senators who are hold outs.  I think, perhaps, all of the other 43 current Republican Senators have at least offered some kind of "I support the nominee" type of statement, even if they won't say Trump's name.

Off the top of my head, I can think of at least 10 Republican Senators who haven’t even offered an Ayotte-esque “I support the nominee, though with reservations” boilerplate statement of support:

Coats
Collins
Cruz
Flake
Graham
Heller
Kirk
Lee
Sasse
Toomey

Looks like Coats is no longer on this list, btw, as he currently supports Trump:

http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/local-politics/Coats-will-continue-to-support-Trump-14589416

So we're currently at 9 sitting Republican US Senators not supporting Trump, though not all of them all #NeverTrump.  Some, like Heller and Toomey, haven't ruled out a Trump endorsement at some point in the future.

Looks like Cory Gardner is in fact backing Trump now (though as with some of his fellow Senators, Gardner managed to issue an endorsement that didn’t mention Trump by name):

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/08/16/cory-gardner-endorses-donald-trump/

And furthermore, looks like I missed Murkowski among the undecided camp:

http://bigstory.ap.org/30501401a5bd4785bf323922c1df1a99

So updated list of sitting Republican Senators not currently supporting Trump is:

Collins
Cruz
Flake
Graham
Heller
Kirk
Lee
Murkowski
Sasse
Toomey

So, ~20% of the Senate GOP caucus isn't backing Trump at the moment, and honestly I think it's close to that %age in the House too, but I'm not keeping track of all the undecided folks there.