The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich says he doesn't "have plans" to run for prez in 2020:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/20/kasich-downplays-notion-of-2020-challenge-to-trump-saying-president-can-learn-from-challenges/?utm_term=.01f116d332d5

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[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan (while visiting New Hampshire) is asked if he'll run for prez in 2020, and he responds "we'll see":

http://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-has-the-democrats-2020-presidential-campaign-begun/12022902

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[Mr. Morden]

Mark Cuban's latest on 2020:

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-mavericks/mavericks/2017/08/23/mark-cuban-rule-running-president-2020-says-take

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[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio pressed on whether he'd leave office before the end of his next term to run for president:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/de-blasio-sal-albanese-slug-city-hall-primary-debate-article-1.3437120

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The news story calls this a "promise" to serve four years, but it doesn't sound like a promise at all to me.  It sounds more like he's saying that his current intention is to serve the full term, but that doesn't rule out those plans changing.  It sounds like he's giving himself wiggle room.

[Mr. Morden]

More Tim Ryan:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-ryan-hints-at-possible-white-house-run/article/2632433

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[Mr. Morden]

Wait, looks like de Blasio actually did use more declarative language in his debate re: promising to serve his full term if reelected:

http://gothamist.com/2017/08/24/de_blasio_debate_2017.php

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In other news, Hickenlooper again says that he won't think about 2020 until his term as governor is over:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/347888-colorado-dem-governor-not-considering-presidential-run-for-503-days

[Mr. Morden]

This story says Kasich/Hickenlooper is actually a real possibility:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/politics/kasich-hickenlooper-2020-unity-ticket/index.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here’s this week’s #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/25/politics/2020-vision-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-seiu-tim-ryan/index.html

Some stuff from Biden, including a South Carolina trip for which I forget if it’s already been mentioned:

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There’s also a reference to this story on Castro, which has this key line:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/24/castro-julian-joaquin-texas-241946

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[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

This Sunday, Sanders will be on Face the Nation, while John Kasich and Sherrod Brown will be on Meet the Press (a rare Sunday morning talk show appearance by Brown).

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic Representatives mentioned here as potential candidates:

-Rep. Grace Meng (NY-6)
-Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13)
-Rep. Eric Swalwell (CA-15)
-Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
-Rep. Seth Moulton (MA-6)

This is a first mention I think I've seen of Grace Meng.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-hit-the-road-far-away-from-their-usual-voters-to-win-back-washington/2017/08/25/85fb3692-842f-11e7-ab27-1a21a8e006ab_story.html?utm_term=.29a6ae4545fc

That story also includes this about Bullock:

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[Mr. Morden]

Franken's spokesman reiterates that Franken will not run for president in 2020.  However, some in his orbit suggest that there's a chance he could be talked into it:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/347889-franken-seen-as-reluctant-2020-candidate

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[Mr. Morden]

Kasich denies Kasich-Hickenlooper:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/kasich-2020-run-dem-hickenlooper-answer-no-n796356

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Biden writes an op/ed in The Atlantic in which he says that Trump “has emboldened white supremacists with messages of comfort and support.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/joe-biden-after-charlottesville/538128/

And Julian Castro calls Trump a pendejo over the Arpaio pardon:

https://twitter.com/JulianCastro/status/901244569911734273

[Mr. Morden]

More Franken:

http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/08/27/talking-points-sen-al-franken-state-fair/

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The story says that Klobuchar also "brushed aside" talk of running for president, but doesn't provide the exact quote.  Without a quote being given, I'm going to assume that it was the kind of non-denial denial she's given other times that she's been asked.

[Mr. Morden]

"Everyone's running for president in 2020":

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/everyone-s-running-president-2020-n796116

[Mr. Morden]

This story says that (shocker!) many of the likely 2020 Dem. candidates who claim to not yet be thinking about 2020 are lying, and are in fact holding presidential strategy sessions with aides and looking at campaign hires:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/28/2020-democrats-new-hampshire-garcetti-242121?lo=ap_f1

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Also, here's Garcetti during his trip to NH:

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[Mr. Morden]

When Garcetti was in New Hampshire, he also said that the 2020 Dem. primary electorate will have plenty of options (which I guess could be taken as a hint that he's open to being such an option):

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/31/democrats-2020-sanders-warren-biden-242189

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That article also talks about how the most well known 2020 prospects (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) are all over 70, and that this is a problem for the younger candidates.  I really don't think being unknown right now is any kind of deal killer.  Having early name recognition does offer some advantage in the primaries, but it's not like name recognition is some fixed thing.  There will certainly be some candidates who are unknown to most voters now, who will become known within the next three years.

And when they try to extend that name recognition argument to the general election as well, it becomes downright ridiculous:

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Why on Earth would present day lack of name recognition (in 2017) be some kind of liability in the general election in 2020?  Anyone who wins the Democratic nomination will, as a consequence of running and winning the Democratic nomination for president, become world-famous, with nearly 100% name recognition among American voters by the time they've clinched the nomination.  This argument strikes me as really dumb.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

Where are you getting those numbers from?

[Mr. Morden]

Here's this week's #2020Vision column:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/01/politics/2020-vision-kamala-harris-single-payer/index.html

Of note from that column....

Julian Castro will teach at the University of Texas this coming semester:

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Also, Jason Kander will make stops in both Iowa and New Hampshire in the next week and a half:

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If that isn't enough early state action for Kander, his "Let America Vote" group is also opening field offices in five states for the 2018 midterms....three of which just happen to be early primary states:

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[Mr. Morden]

Democratic polling percentages from that aforementioned "Everyone is Running" article.

Biden - 51%
Blumenthal - 42%
Booker - 42%
Cuban - 42%
Delaney - 38%
Harris - 39%
Sanders - 51%
Warren - 45%

Dear god, have we learned nothing?

What are these? The % of primary voters that would find the candidate to be an acceptable nominee? The % they would get against Trump? The chance that they'll run?

Im pretty sure those are the percentages from the ppp poll of all these candidates vs trump

Yeah, looks like that's what it is:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271374.msg5795514#msg5795514

[Mr. Morden]

Some in Biden's political orbit are anonymously suggesting that (shocker!) Biden's book tour may have something to do with 2020 presidential ambitions:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/348632-2020-begins-with-the-book-tours

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[Mr. Morden]

The NY Times has another story looking at the overall Dem. 2020 landscape, with tidbits from various candidates:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/02/us/politics/democrats-president-2020.html?mcubz=3

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There’s also some stuff in the article on Harris, among others, but I don’t want to quote too much of it.

[Mr. Morden]

Dwayne Johnson/Tom Hanks tease 2020 campaign on SNL.

Albeit SNL...

That was months ago.  SNL is airing reruns now, since it's the summer.

[Mr. Morden]

Merkley writes an op-ed for the Des Moines Register:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2017/09/01/oregon-iowa-progressives-can-take-back-our-country/614555001/

Why is a Senator from Oregon writing an op-ed for an Iowa paper?

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/09/will_merkley_run_for_president.html

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[Mr. Morden]

I agree that Sanders is likely to run now. If you asked me a few months ago, I wouldn't have been so sure.

I am still a Sanders-running skeptic.  I agree that he's "making moves" that suggest interest (as are a couple dozen other people), but he's old enough that, even given clues like that, I price in a discount on his odds of running due to his age.  I am just not sure Sanders (or anyone) will ultimately agree to throw themselves into a high pressure job like POTUS at near 80 years old, when the possibility of imminent physical and mental decline is creeping up on you.  Shaving a couple of years off your life when you're 55 or 60 is one thing, but when you're 79?  I'm not so sure.

But exactly how big a discount you apply is entirely subjective.  PredictIt now has him at a 47% chance of running, but I'd put it in the 30s in my own personal odds.  But your mileage may vary.

[Mr. Morden]

What's Sanders' relationship with Warren? Does one declaring first keep the other out?

I don't think the relationship between the candidates matters as much as people seem to think.  Fred Thompson ran against his friend John McCain and Marco Rubio ran against mentor Jeb Bush, for example.  Potential candidates don't defer to others because they're friends.  They defer because the other candidate running steals away part of their base, and makes them less likely to win the nomination.

So from that perspective, sure, Warren is less likely to run if Sanders is in the race purely because his being in the race hurts her chances of being nominated, so she might no longer think running is worthwhile.  And I guess the reverse is true to a lesser extent.  Sanders obviously has more of a built-in base than Warren does, but his age might make him more reluctant to run unless he's supremely confident of victory, and if Warren has already declared, and siphoning off some %age of voters who might otherwise vote for him, then maybe he concludes that that dings his odds enough that he's not going to bother.

But politicians tend to have large egos, so maybe both would be confident of victory regardless.  I don't think we can assume that either of them would necessarily defer to the other, so both of them running at the same time certainly seems possible.