latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Big shakeup in recent days, as Warren has surged all the way from 5th place to 2nd place, with Sanders dropping to 4th.  Though 2nd-5th place are all pretty close:

Up: Warren
Down: Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Harris

Biden 31.0
Warren 14.9
Buttigieg 14.5
Sanders 13.4
Harris 12.9
Yang 4.8
O’Rourke 4.3
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.1
M. Obama 2.1

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 34.5
Rubio 33.9
Walker 19.0
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 4.8
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 3.2 (32Red)
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.9
Fiorina 2.5

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2926530#msg2926530

Romney 30.2
Pawlenty 16.4
Huntsman 13.4
Perry 13.0
Palin 5.6
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 4.6
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Gingrich 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Harris’s slow decline continues:

Biden 30.5
Warren 15.4
Buttigieg 14.5
Sanders 13.8
Harris 11.6
Yang 5.0
O’Rourke 4.2
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.1
Booker 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Harris rebounds, now back up to 4th place, ahead of Sanders:

Up: Harris
Down: Sanders

Democrats
Biden 30.0
Warren 15.8
Buttigieg 14.1
Harris 13.8
Sanders 12.2
Yang 5.3
O’Rourke 4.3
Gabbard 2.8
Klobuchar 2.4
Clinton 1.9

Republicans
Trump 90.0
Haley 4.8
Pence 4.5

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 10.0
Biden 5.7
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Rubio 25.4
Walker 17.7
Paul 8.4
Trump 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.4
Jindal 3.1
Perry 3.1
Cruz 2.9

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2934610#msg2934610

Romney 36.0
Perry 15.4
Bachmann 9.8
Pawlenty 9.6
Huntsman 9.5
Palin 4.5
Cain 2.2
Paul 2.0
Giuliani 1.6
Christie 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Gingrich 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Twelve years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

Yes, McCain at just 8.5 at this point in 2007.  This was the summer implosion of his campaign.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris back up to 3rd place:

Biden 29.6
Warren 15.4
Harris 14.1
Buttigieg 13.4
Sanders 12.4
Yang 6.0
O’Rourke 3.8
Gabbard 2.5
Clinton 1.9
Klobuchar 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Post-night 1 of debates update: Warren gaining ground, and O’Rourke drops while Castro surges into the top 10.  Castro now ahead of O’Rourke.

Up: Warren, Gabbard, Castro
Down: Buttigieg, O’Rourke

Biden 29.3
Warren 17.4
Harris 14.9
Sanders 12.4
Buttigieg 12.2
Yang 6.4
Gabbard 3.8
Castro 3.3
O’Rourke 2.9
Booker 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Massive shifts in the markets in the last couple of hours, with Harris rocketing up to a close 2nd place behind Biden (who’s dropped quite a bit):

Up: Harris
Down: Biden, Yang

Biden 23.6
Harris 22.6
Warren 18.0
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 11.6
Yang 4.8
Gabbard 3.8
Castro 3.4
O’Rourke 3.4
Booker 2.3

[Mr. Morden]

Harris has taken the lead, with Biden dropping more.  Also, Castro's bump fades:

Up: Harris
Down: Biden, Sanders, Yang, O’Rourke, Castro

Harris 24.1
Biden 20.8
Warren 17.4
Buttigieg 11.9
Sanders 11.1
Yang 3.4
Gabbard 3.1
O’Rourke 2.3
Booker 1.9
Clinton 1.9
Castro 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

[Mr. Morden]

I think this is the first time during the past year or two that Biden has not been on top, no?

No, that's not even close to being true.  Biden was only leading the betting markets for the last two months or so, roughly since the day he officially launched his campaign until today.  Immediately before that, it was Sanders.  Here are the #s from April 25th:

Sanders 23.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 14.5
Harris 14.1
O’Rourke 7.2
Yang 5.0
Warren 4.2
Klobuchar 2.9
Booker 2.5
Gabbard 2.1
Clinton 1.6
Gillibrand 1.3

With regular bookmakers I think he's always been leading.

No he hasn't been.  Look back through the historical data on Oddschecker.  In January, for example, Biden was running behind Harris across the board, at the very least.  Now he's behind her again.

How do you do that?

If you click on a candidate's name it gives you their numbers for today.  You can then click the "All History" link, and it shows you the prices for all preceding days.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris’s lead still expanding, while Warren is close to catching Biden for 2nd:

Up: Harris, Warren
Down: Biden

Democrats
Harris 26.3
Biden 18.9
Warren 18.3
Buttigieg 11.6
Sanders 10.5
Yang 3.6
Gabbard 3.1
O’Rourke 2.2
Booker 2.1
Clinton 1.8

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.4

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 10.5
Biden 4.5
O'Malley 4.3

Republicans
Bush 35.5
Rubio 24.8
Walker 17.7
Paul 10.5
Kasich 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 3.4
Trump 3.4
Christie 3.1
Cruz 2.9
Perry 2.6
Fiorina 2.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1226606#msg1226606

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden sinks even more, with Warren now edging him out for 2nd place:

Harris 26.0
Warren 18.3
Biden 15.4
Buttigieg 11.4
Sanders 10.9
Yang 4.0
Gabbard 3.8
O’Rourke 2.1
Booker 1.9
Clinton 1.8
Castro 1.3
Klobuchar 0.9
M. Obama 0.8
Abrams 0.7
Bullock 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Harris up to 30, as Buttigieg and Sanders are crashing:

Up: Harris
Down: Buttigieg, Sanders

Democrats
Harris 30.0
Warren 18.6
Biden 15.4
Buttigieg 9.5
Sanders 8.4
Yang 3.3
Gabbard 3.1
Booker 2.5
Gillbrand 1.8
Clinton 1.6
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.4
M. Obama 1.2
Abrams 0.7
Klobuchar 0.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.6

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 23.1
Walker 17.4
Paul 8.1
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.3
Trump 4.3
Christie 4.2
Graham 3.8
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 2.6

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.0
Bachmann 15.6
Perry 15.4
Pawlenty 8.7
Palin 7.1
Huntsman 6.6
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Cain 1.5
Ryan 1.1
McCotter 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Harris still gaining, and Biden still dropping…

Up: Harris, Warren
Down: Biden

Harris 34.5
Warren 20.1
Biden 13.8
Buttigieg 8.8
Sanders 8.4
Yang 2.9
Gabbard 2.8
Booker 2.4
Gillbrand 1.8
O’Rourke 1.6
Castro 1.4
Clinton 1.3

Four years ago today:

Bush 37.5
Rubio 22.6
Walker 17.4
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 6.2
Trump 4.0
Christie 3.8
Carson 2.9
Graham 2.8
Kasich 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Cruz 2.1

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2951879#msg2951879

Romney 33.5
Bachmann 17.5
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.7
Palin 6.0
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.6
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.5
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.6

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1232084#msg1232084

Democrats
Clinton 42.5
Obama 38.8
Gore 7.1
Edwards 5.8
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.2
Thompson 34.5
Romney 15.9
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.3
Huckabee 1.6
J. Bush 0.6
Hagel 0.6
Rice 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
Bloomberg 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Brownback 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Harris-mania subsides a bit, as she drops a little while Biden has a bit of a rebound.  Also, Hillary Clinton now up to 7th place(!):

Up: Biden, Clinton
Down: Harris

Democrats
Harris 32.9
Warren 20.5
Biden 16.3
Buttigieg 8.1
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.3
Clinton 2.5
Booker 2.4
Gabbard 2.1
O’Rourke 1.8
Castro 1.6

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Haley 4.2
Pence 3.3

Four years ago today:

Bush breaks 40…

Dems

Clinton 84.0
Sanders 13.4

GOP

Bush 40.7
Rubio 20.4
Walker 16.3
Paul 8.4
Huckabee 5.5
Trump 5.3
Carson 3.4
Christie 3.3

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 34.6
Perry 18.2
Bachmann 13.3
Huntsman 8.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Palin 6.1
Paul 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Cain 1.4
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 44.1
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.3
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 33.9
Romney 16.4
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Hillary Clinton now up to 7th place(!):

Clinton 2.5

This has to be purely based on some presumption that a brokered Democratic Convention may result in her somehow being nominated as a compromise candidate, right?

Maybe, but it could also just be people who bet on or against her at a higher price like a year ago (back when there were still holdouts thinking she'd run again) dumping their position now, rather than waiting until Summer 2020 to cash out.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden continues to slowly recover:

Up: Biden, Buttigieg
Down: Harris

Harris 30.5
Warren 21.3
Biden 18.6
Buttigieg 9.1
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.1
Clinton 2.9
Booker 2.1
O’Rourke 1.8
Castro 1.5
Gabbard 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Warren, Biden
Down: Harris

Democrats
Harris 29.6
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 8.8
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.3
Booker 2.4
Clinton 2.1
O’Rourke 1.5
Castro 1.4
Gabbard 1.4

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 3.1
Haley 2.9

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Bush 42.9
Walker 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 6.8
Trump 6.5
Huckabee 5.8
Carson 4.3
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 2.6

Roughly eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2964703#msg2964703

GOP nomination
Perry 31.7
Romney 30.3
Bachmann 9.3
Huntsman 7.0
Pawlenty 6.0
Palin 5.2
Paul 2.2
Christie 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Gingrich 0.9
Cain 0.8
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Ryan 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1249026#msg1249026

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 37.0
Edwards 6.2
Gore 4.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
Giuliani 39.7
Thompson 28.0
Romney 18.8
McCain 6.3
Gingrich 3.5
Paul 3.0
Huckabee 0.7
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.5
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Cheney 0.1
J. Bush 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg gains while Harris drops a bit more, in what’ll presumably be my last update before this week’s debate:

Harris 28.8
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.3
Buttigieg 10.0
Sanders 8.1
Yang 3.4
Booker 2.3
Clinton 2.1
Gabbard 1.6
O’Rourke 1.5

Four years ago today:

Bush 42.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 12.8
Trump 7.8
Paul 6.8
Huckabee 5.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 3.1

[Mr. Morden]

How is Hillary valued at 4 cents for yes? LOL.

She's at 2, not 4.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate night 1 update: Sanders has the biggest gain, bumping Buttigieg down to 5th.  Meanwhile, Biden now edges Warren for 2nd.

Up: Sanders
Down: Warren, Buttigieg

Harris 28.4
Biden 21.7
Warren 21.3
Sanders 10.5
Buttigieg 7.8
Yang 3.3
Booker 2.3
Clinton 1.9
Gabbard 1.6
Castro 1.4

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate night 2 update: Harris, Warren, and Biden all seem to be converging on the same price….

Up: Warren, Yang, Gabbard
Down: Harris, Sanders

Harris 26.3
Warren 22.2
Biden 21.7
Sanders 9.1
Buttigieg 8.5
Yang 4.3
Booker 2.9
Gabbard 2.5
Clinton 1.9
Castro 1.4

However, while Sanders dropped from his post-night 1 bounce, his overall change from where he was on the weekend is the highest net positive of the field, going up +1.0 points.  And Harris is the biggest loser compared to a few days ago, dropping 2.5 points.  (Though she’s still in the lead.)

[Mr. Morden]

Biden surges back into the #1 spot, as Harris drops to 3rd:

Up: Biden, Warren, Sanders, Gabbard
Down: Harris

Biden 27.7
Warren 23.2
Harris 22.2
Sanders 10.7
Buttigieg 8.8
Yang 4.5
Gabbard 4.0
Booker 2.9
Clinton 2.1
Castro 1.1
M. Obama 1.1
O’Rourke 1.1

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 43.3
Walker 18.0
Rubio 8.8
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.9
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Carson 3.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2976524#msg2976524

Perry 30.6
Romney 29.4
Huntsman 7.4
Bachmann 6.4
Palin 6.1
Pawlenty 6.1
Paul 2.3
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.5
Ryan 1.0
Johnson 0.7
Cain 0.6
Gingrich 0.6
Pataki 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1255735#msg1255735

Democrats
Clinton 49.1
Obama 35.0
Edwards 7.2
Gore 4.2
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.1
Thompson 30.8
Romney 17.3
McCain 6.2
Gingrich 3.2
Paul 3.1
Rice 1.1
Hagel 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Cheney 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Brownback 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Biden still in the lead, but drops a bit from his immediate post-debate high:

Democrats
Biden 25.4
Warren 23.2
Harris 22.2
Sanders 10.9
Buttigieg 8.1
Gabbard 3.6
Yang 3.6
Booker 3.1
Clinton 1.8
O’Rourke 1.2

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 3.1
Ryan 2.2
Haley 2.1

Four years ago at this point:

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 11.6
Biden 7.2
O'Malley 2.1

Republicans
Bush 45.0
Walker 19.3
Trump 10.0
Rubio 8.8
Kasich 5.3
Paul 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Carson 2.6

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade....Perry and Romney were tied:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2979995#msg2979995

Perry 31.0
Romney 31.0
Huntsman 7.5
Palin 7.0
Bachmann 5.6
Christie 4.5
Paul 3.0
Pawlenty 2.1
Guliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.6

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

Democrats
Clinton 50.3
Obama 33.5
Edwards 7.0
Gore 4.5
Richardson 2.9
Biden 1.1
Clark 1.1
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 35.9
Thompson 31.4
Romney 18.5
McCain 6.0
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.2
Rice 0.7
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.1
Bloomberg 0.1
Brownback 0.1
Tancredo 0.1
Cheney 0.1
Powell 0.1
T. Thompson 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Warren nearly caught up to Biden now, as Harris drops hard:

Up: Biden, Warren, Sanders
Down: Harris, Buttigieg

Biden 26.9
Warren 26.6
Harris 14.9
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 6.8
Gabbard 4.0
Yang 4.0
Booker 2.5
Clinton 1.8
O’Rourke 1.8

Four years ago at this point:

Bush 41.8
Walker 17.7
Rubio 15.8
Trump 9.1
Fiorina 6.8
Huckabee 6.2
Kasich 5.7
Paul 5.3
Cruz 4.0
Carson 3.8
Christie 3.3

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2984231#msg2984231

Romney 33.5
Perry 32.0
Huntsman 7.5
Pawlenty 7.0
Palin 6.7
Bachmann 6.1
Paul 3.7
Christie 1.8
Giuliani 1.8
Gingrich 0.6
Johnson 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Cain 0.4

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

Democrats
Clinton 54.0
Obama 30.1
Edwards 7.0
Gore 5.0
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.6

Republicans
Giuliani 33.0
Thompson 32.3
Romney 19.4
McCain 6.3
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 3.1
Hagel 1.3
Huckabee 1.1
Rice 0.6
Tancredo 0.3