The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/03/michael-avenatti-is-mulling-a-2020-run-for-president-again.html

Michael Avenatti might run after all...

Btw, from that link, he's saying that the odds of him running are "50/50", and that he'll make his decision "in a few months".

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently Wikipedia lists Joe Walsh as a possible GOP candidate, but the only reference they have on that is this:

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/ex-congressman-joe-walsh-considers-primarying-trump-his-entire-life-is-a-lie/

“Joe, why don’t you run as a Republican challenger to him? You have pure conservative ideals, you would get the support of the never Trumpers, and I’d love to see you debate him,” Jeff Fulton said.

In response, Walsh said a challenge was necessary.

“Thank you my friend. Trump should be challenged in the primary,” Walsh replied. “And it should be an honest, decent, principled conservative challenge.”

That seems like a slight reach.  I guess it's a non-denial on Walsh's part, but unlike, say, Mark Sanford, Walsh hasn't actually said that he's thinking about it.  Just that he agrees that a "principled conservative" should run against Trump in the primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford will be on The Daily Show next Thursday:

https://interbridge.com/lineups.html#DS

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SNPonMSNBC/status/1160353889499197440

Also in that clip: Deutsch suggested that Sanford run 3rd party rather than / in addition to challenging Trump in the primary, and Sanford said "well, we'll see".

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford headed to NH tomorrow.  He also says that he's already had conversations with people in IA, NH, and CA:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-s-mark-sanford-heading-to-new-hampshire-to-further/article_1cdc06c4-bd11-11e9-bbf2-77f7ea78078d.html

Mark Sanford, still mulling a possible 2020 presidential bid, will travel to New Hampshire on Tuesday as he nears a final decision on launching a serious run against Donald Trump.

In an interview with The Post and Courier, the former South Carolina congressman and governor said his trip to the key early presidential primary state will not include public events.

Instead, he will be “quietly having meetings” with individuals he trusts to give him honest feedback on the best political path forward.
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On Monday, Sanford said he is still on track to meet his four-week timeline but refused to say which direction he was leaning.

“That’s still the $94 question. I don’t know,” Sanford said, after confirming he has had conversations with people in Iowa, New Hampshire and California — three states with early presidential primaries.

Sanford's proto-campaign also came out with a new video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Zk6T8J1bDs

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1161367528402300933

Her speech, as delivered, didn't quite explicitly say she's not running, though the last sentence I quote in bold below seems to imply that:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/13/stacey-abrams-2020-1461880

Stacey Abrams all but confirmed she won’t mount a bid for president in 2020 on Tuesday, announcing she will train her efforts over the next year and a half on a group to expand voter access and boost involvement with the 2020 census.

While Abrams made no explicit announcement that she would not run for president, her self-imposed deadline of Labor Day to jump in to the race is rapidly approaching.

“There are only two things stopping us in 2020: That people have a reason to vote and that they have the right to vote,” she told a labor union in Las Vegas on Tuesday. “I’ve decided to leave it to a whole bunch of other people to make sure they have a reason to vote.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanford-points-to-labor-day-decision-on-primary-challenge-to-trump

Mark Sanford says he should decide by around Labor Day if he’s going to mount what he has conceded would be a "long-shot” GOP primary bid against President Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti reiterates that a presidential run is back on his radar, and that he'll decide "later this fall":

https://en.brinkwire.com/us/avenatti-says-hes-not-ruling-out-2020-presidential-run-despite-facing-more-than-40-federal-charges/

[Mr. Morden]

Kristol says he's talked to Scaramucci about finding a primary challenger for Trump:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/anthony-scaramucci-talks-to-bill-kristol-about-trying-to-force-trump-off-2020-gop-ticket.html

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently Wikipedia lists Joe Walsh as a possible GOP candidate, but the only reference they have on that is this:

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/07/ex-congressman-joe-walsh-considers-primarying-trump-his-entire-life-is-a-lie/

“Joe, why don’t you run as a Republican challenger to him? You have pure conservative ideals, you would get the support of the never Trumpers, and I’d love to see you debate him,” Jeff Fulton said.

In response, Walsh said a challenge was necessary.

“Thank you my friend. Trump should be challenged in the primary,” Walsh replied. “And it should be an honest, decent, principled conservative challenge.”

That seems like a slight reach.  I guess it's a non-denial on Walsh's part, but unlike, say, Mark Sanford, Walsh hasn't actually said that he's thinking about it.  Just that he agrees that a "principled conservative" should run against Trump in the primary.

Well, update on this: Walsh was on the Matt Lewis & The News podcast a couple of days ago, and here's the audio file:

http://ftrradio.com/mattlewis/MLewisWalsh08162019.mp3

At about the 10:10 mark, Matt Lewis asks Walsh if he's open to running against Trump for the nomination this year, and Walsh says "I have not ruled it out".  So maybe there's something more to this than I previously thought.

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh also did an interview with Al Sharpton here:

http://www.msnbc.com/politicsnation/watch/former-gop-lawmaker-trump-s-a-coward-who-needs-to-be-primaried-in-2020-66414149571

And in that interview as well (at about the 5:55 mark), he says he's not ruling out running himself.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1161367528402300933

Her speech, as delivered, didn't quite explicitly say she's not running, though the last sentence I quote in bold below seems to imply that:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/13/stacey-abrams-2020-1461880

Stacey Abrams all but confirmed she won’t mount a bid for president in 2020 on Tuesday, announcing she will train her efforts over the next year and a half on a group to expand voter access and boost involvement with the 2020 census.

While Abrams made no explicit announcement that she would not run for president, her self-imposed deadline of Labor Day to jump in to the race is rapidly approaching.

“There are only two things stopping us in 2020: That people have a reason to vote and that they have the right to vote,” she told a labor union in Las Vegas on Tuesday. “I’ve decided to leave it to a whole bunch of other people to make sure they have a reason to vote.”

In her interview on This Week today, she was more definitive:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-18-19-peter-navarro-sen-kirsten/story?id=65040588

DAVIS: You have decided not to run for president.

ABRAMS: I have.

[Mr. Morden]

The NY Times says Walsh has hired a political director and "may announce as early as this weekend" that he's running for the GOP nomination for president:

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20190821/ny-times-joe-walsh-likely-to-challenge-trump-in-2020-primary

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo has a new story on all the prospective GOP candidates:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-critics-eye-gop-primary-race-even-if-defeating-him-seems-preposterous/2019/08/20/4382f3dc-c360-11e9-b72f-b31dfaa77212_story.html

Here’s a summary:

Jeff Flake: Says he has taken a “flurry of recruitment calls” from GOP donors in recent days.

Flake said he has told them he is unlikely to reconsider his decision but would keep the door slightly ajar.

“I haven’t changed my mind and this is still the president’s party,” he said. “That’s the case right now.”

John Kasich: Will head to New Hampshire next month to “take a look at things”:

Kasich, meanwhile, is “continually looking at this race and has seen an increase in people asking him to get in,” adviser John Weaver said. He is returning to New Hampshire in September to reconnect with supporters in the state in which he finished second to Trump in the 2016 primary.

“It’s prudent to take a look at things,” Weaver added.

Anthony Scaramucci: Will not run himself, but created a new Super PAC, called “The Committee to Dismantle Trump”, which will “run advertisements attacking the president”.

Joe Walsh: While the NYT says he might declare his candidacy as early as this coming weekend, WaPo says he’s leaning towards September:

He said he is huddling this week with potential supporters and is leaning toward announcing a campaign next month.

Referring to Trump, he said, “He’s a bully and he’s a coward. Somebody’s got to punch him in the face every single day.”

Walsh, who has his own history of incendiary comments, was elected to the House from Illinois in 2010 as part of the tea party wave and served one term. He described himself as an immigration hard-liner and said he would not challenge Trump from the center but from the right and on moral grounds.

Mark Sanford: Says he is “inching closer” to running, and is “leaning towards jumping in”:

But Sanford said he recently returned from a trip to New Hampshire and is leaning toward jumping in — “another ‘green light on go’ versus ‘no go’ ” — and figures he “could win without winning.”

“If [Trump] gives you a nickname and has surrogates rough you up, you could get a message out and create a national conversation on what it means to be a Republican these days and that could probably be worth the endeavor,” Sanford said.

[Mr. Morden]

At least one out of Kasich, Sanford, and Walsh should run, so they can have a debate against Weld.  (With Trump invited as well, but he'd never show up.)

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh also talked to Politico about his plans:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/21/joe-walsh-primary-bid-trump-1471632

Walsh told POLITICO on Wednesday that he was confident he could secure the resources and support to mount a challenge against the president, and that if he ran, he would announce in short order. While Walsh on Wednesday would not yet confirm he would enter the primary, two sources who spoke to him said he was privately confirming he would announce his presidential bid this weekend.

“If I’m to do it, it’s going to happen soon,” Walsh told POLITICO on Wednesday. “I’ve been really surprised by the amount of anxiousness from people across the spectrum who want this president to have a challenge, because there’s just a real concern that he’s absolutely unfit.”
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When asked on Wednesday whether he could secure financial resources to go up against Trump’s treasure chest, Walsh responded: “Abso-freaking-lutely. There’s a drumbeat from a lot of people out there for somebody who wants to take this on.”

Walsh contends that based on conversations he’s had, he could win financial support “all over the spectrum.”

[Mr. Morden]

Lincoln Chafee says he's open to running for president on the Libertarian ticket:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/lincoln-chafee-id-be-open-to-a-libertarian-white-house-bid

"I'm very motivated as an anti-war American, and also by the deficit,” said Chafee in an interview. “Those are two big issues that, if the Libertarian convention next summer thinks that someone with a long record on those issues... if I fit that, then yes, I'd be open to that."
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Chafee told The Daily Beast that he would be likeliest to jump in the race if there was tangible clamoring among Libertarian activists for him to make a run. The party chooses its presidential nominee at the convention, rather than through a traditional primary process, which could be a way in for an unorthodox candidate, though activists tend to reward candidates who put in the early legwork.

“I’m new to the party and I’m still meeting people through phone calls, email, and in person,” said Chafee. “I’m at this stage learning what they might want… I’m new to the party, and I will help in any way I can.”

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh talking about his plans some more, to the Chicago Sun Times last night:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2019/8/21/20827454/will-joe-walsh-challenge-donald-trump

“Won’t rule it out. Somebody should challenge this unfit divider in the White House,” Walsh told the Chicago Sun-Times on Wednesday night. He added, “I’m considering a run and won’t take long to make up my mind.”

And then on CNN this morning:

https://twitter.com/NewDay/status/1164500890465665024

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh planning Iowa and New Hampshire trips:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gop-trump-critics-moving-closer-launching-2020-primary/story?id=65121759

Walsh’s team says the former one-term Tea Party Republican with a long history of incendiary comments - once a fervent Trump supporter who recently distanced himself from the president, accusing Trump of inflaming racial tensions - is looking to travel to and spend “a lot of time” in the key primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire in the coming weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh was in DC today, sounding out support for a possible run:

https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2019/8/22/20829076/joe-walsh-dc-meetings-possible-president-trump-gop-primary-challenge

Walsh was in D.C. “meeting with people who are really interested in getting behind a possible campaign,” Lucy Caldwell, who is advising Walsh, told the Chicago Sun-Times.

He is closing in on a decision to mount an insurgency bid against Trump, coming at him from the right.

In a CNN Thursday morning interview with host John Berman, Walsh, once a Trump backer, said he would decide about a run likely by Labor Day and called Trump a “horrible human being” who is “damn unfit” to be president.

Sanford will attend a GOP fundraiser in his home state of SC on Monday:

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/2019/08/22/mark-sanford-potential-president-trump-opponent-mingle-trump-fans-jeff-duncan-faith-freedom-bbq/2077590001/

Then he’s headed to Iowa next week Wednesday and Thurdsday:

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article234272672.html

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh courting George Conway to join his proto-campaign:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/joe-walsh-courts-kellyanne-conways-husband-george-for-possible-2020-trump-primary-challenge

Former Republican congressman Joe Walsh has been courting George Conway to join his likely primary challenge of President Donald Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination, according to The New York Times. Walsh reportedly met with the conservative lawyer, vocal Trump critic and husband of White House counselor Kellyanne Conway this week and asked him to formally join his campaign in a senior role. “I think Walsh’s plan to attack Trump for his dishonesty, amorality, instability and incompetence is absolutely the right approach, and I’ll do whatever I can to help,” George Conway said in a statement. He stopped short of saying if he had agreed to join the campaign, however. Earlier this year, President Trump lashed out at “Mr. Kellyanne Conway” on Twitter, calling him a “stone cold LOSER & husband from hell!”

Amash drops 2020 hint:

https://dailycaller.com/2019/08/23/justin-amash-2020-donald-trump-unstable/

“Donald Trump is a threat to liberty in America. He has grown government, centralized power, and undermined rights. He has promoted division and contempt. He appears increasingly unstable,” Amash wrote in a tweet that quickly garnered thousands of retweets.

“In 2020, we must elect someone who will restore respect for our Constitution and each other,” Amash added.

It’s unclear if Amash was referring to one of Trump’s Republican challengers, or to a candidate yet to announce, by calling for a president who will respect the Constitution. Amash himself hasn’t ruled out a third-party bid for president.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich's latest venture:

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2019/08/john-kasich-says-hospitals-should-get-potential-opioid-settlement-money-capitol-letter.html

Ex-Gov. John Kasich, along with former Ohio State University President Gordon Gee, on Thursday announced they will form a 501(c)(4) organization to raise cash to fight for hospitals receiving the potential opioids lawsuit settlement, according to cleveland.com’s Laura Hancock. However, Kasich -- who once again appears to be considering running for president -- has been criticized from some corners for not doing enough as the opioids epidemic was raging in Ohio. One local government official said hospitals should get some money but local governments and others should, too, since all aspects of society were affected.

[Mr. Morden]

Walsh will be on ABC's This Week on Sunday morning:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sunday-week-rep-joe-walsh-cindy-mccain/story?id=65159383

So maybe we'll get some kind of update on his plans in a few hours when that interview airs.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2019/08/19/sandoval-sorry-for-mock-trump-assault-hardiman-takes-on-trump-preckwinkles-son-in-hot-seat-470330

Tio Hardiman, the Chicago activist who ran for governor in the Democratic primary in 2018, is making another political run — this time as a Republican to challenge President Donald Trump.

“When I saw what happened in Texas, I decided I wanted to run on the Republican side. Donald Trump needs the competition,” Hardiman told Playbook, referring to the mass shooting earlier this month in El Paso, Texas, in which 22 people were killed.
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Hardiman says he’s starting an exploratory committee and working on a website. He’s also planning a Sept. 12 fundraiser. Hardiman says he expects to need at least $25 million to run for president.

[Mr. Morden]

While John Weaver continues to pump the chances of Kasich entering the race, another (anonymous) Kasich insider says Kasich’s upcoming NH trip shouldn’t be read as a serious sign of 2020 interest:

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190825/capitol-insider--is-john-kasichs-return-to-new-hampshire-overhyped

News broke last week that former Ohio Gov. John Kasich is returning to New Hampshire next month, leading to speculation that he might actually make an impossible-dream bid against President Donald Trump.

But a key New Hampshire adviser insists, “The visit should in no way be interpreted as ‘dipping the toe in political waters’ because, as you likely know, the governor has no interest in being a sacrificial lamb.”

He said Kasich likely will discuss civility in politics and government.

But political adviser John Weaver told The Washington Post, Fox News and other non-Ohio media outlets that Kasich is “continually looking at this race and has seen an increase in people asking him to get in.”

He added: “The governor’s never closed the door to challenging Trump.”

The story also notes that Kasich’s Super PAC is still actively raising $, and in fact is paying Weaver $10,000 a month.