New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has added a new market for betting on the odds that each candidate will drop out before Dec. 31st.  The only candidate for which there's actually been a transaction is McCain, and they put the odds of a dropout for him at 40%.  But here are the "ask" prices right now:

Clinton 10
Dodd 50
Edwards 50
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 70
McCain 40
Obama 10
Richardson 30
Romney 10

[Mr. Morden]

It's unclear why they decided to include the particular candidates that they have in that market.  I can understand leaving off 3rd tier folks like Gilmore and Tancredo, but why include Dodd, but not Biden?

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual odds:

Clinton 28.5
Obama 20.0
Thompson 20.0
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 10.0
Gore 6.8
Bloomberg 5.1
McCain 3.6
Edwards 2.8

Yes, Bloomberg is ahead of both McCain and Edwards (as is Gore, but that's been the case for a while).

[Mr. Morden]

Probability of dropping out by Dec. 31st:

Huckabee 50.0
Dodd 40.0
McCain 37.5
Edwards 30.0
Richardson 20.0
Clinton 5.0
Giuliani 5.0
Obama 5.0
Romney 5.0

Leading contenders for the early primary states:

IA
Clinton 35
Obama 30.5
Edwards 30

Romney 40.5
Thompson 37.3

NV
Clinton 75
Obama 15

Thompson 60
Giuliani 20

NH
Clinton 55.5
Obama 26.5

Romney 40.5
Thompson 25
Giuliani 24

SC
Obama 50
Clinton 35

Thompson 60
Giuliani 25

FL
Clinton 75
Obama 15

Thompson 40
Giuliani 40

[Mr. Morden]

If that were possible, but you can only trade Iowa shares on that site and only trade TS share on TradeSports.

True, but one could simply bet on one candidate on Intrade and bet against that same candidate in the IEM (or vice versa).  If there's a price disparity between the two markets, you could guarantee that you'd make $.  However, I guess there's some kind of extra transaction cost that they charge you, which makes betting in the hopes of cashing in on such minor differences between the markets less attractive?

[Mr. Morden]

Obama is closing the gap on the winning individual odds as well:

Clinton 23.5
Obama 23.0
Giuliani 18.5
Thompson 18.5
Romney 8.7
Gore 6.8
Bloomberg 4.3

[Mr. Morden]

With Gore finally receding somewhat, Bloomberg has surpassed him in the "winning individual" market, and he's now rated as the 6th most likely person to win the general election:

Clinton 27.0
Obama 23.0
Thomspon 18.4
Giuliani 18.2
Romney 8.0
Bloomberg 4.3
Gore 4.0
Edwards 3.9
McCain 3.3

Also, Gore's chances of running are now rated at 22%, while Bloomberg's chances of running are at 45%.

[Mr. Morden]

Really?  I think he's just keeping his options open.  He doesn't have to decide for a while yet.  I still think Bloomberg is smart enough to know that even with his $ advantage, a 3rd party candidate faces long odds at winning.  I think there's a decent chance he'll conclude that his chances of winning aren't that great, so why put himself through a national campaign?

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards won South Carolina..... it proved to be inconsequential... granted more importance seems placed on it this year.

It was inconsequential because it was held the same day as 6 other primaries, of which Kerry won 5!

[Mr. Morden]

Edwards won South Carolina..... it proved to be inconsequential... granted more importance seems placed on it this year.

It was inconsequential because it was held the same day as 6 other primaries, of which Kerry won 5!

And because Kerry still came in second. It's entirely possible for Romney to win the first three contests and then come in fourth in South Carolina. I don't think he can win any of the Deep South primaries no matter how hard he campaigns.

Maybe, though of course it's still possible to win the nomination without winning in the Deep South.  If he were to win IA, NV, and NH, then lose SC, there's nothing that says he couldn't still come back and win FL, CA, IL, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

The share price for Huckabee dropping out of the race by the end of 2007 has just dropped all the way from 67.5 to 50.0.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, Huckabee has to actually capitalize on his straw poll success.  If his straw poll showing doesn't help him that much with either fundraising or his standing in the polls, he could still drop out before the caucus.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has just dropped sharply all the way down to 15.0.  Has some news about him just broken, or are some of the bettors confused about which Thompson dropped out of the race?

[Mr. Morden]

In the early primary states, Clinton is the favorite on the Dem. side in all of them.  On the GOP side, the favorites are:

IA Romney 50.0
NH Romney 50.0
SC Thompson 55.0
NV Thompson 55.0
FL Giuliani 55.0

Giuliani is listed as second most likely to win in NH, SC, and NV.  Thompson is second in IA and FL.

[Mr. Morden]

Huh. I guess the straw poll really was worthless if Brownback's that low. And I find it surprising that Huckabee is still below Paul [not that I'm complaining.] I realise its just one event, but there's been alot of talk in the last month or so about how Huckabee was the "real consevative" in the race. But I suppose people are waiting to see if all this talk amounts to fundrasing or poll success.

But Huckabee's price has more than doubled (almost tripled) relative to where it was before the straw poll, so it's definitely had some effect.  It's just that the price was so low to begin with.  And Brownback got no bounce out of his 3rd place showing, because it's only 3rd place.  It was actually kind of embarrassing that he lost out to Huckabee, who spent so much less money than he did.

[Mr. Morden]

Virtually everyone is overvalued on the VP market (though Gore is really an extreme case), as there are probably something like a dozen people in each party who aren't even listed, but have maybe a few % chance each at being named VP.  For example, according to Intrade, there's a >50% chance that the Dem VP candidate will be Obama or Richardson.  To me, that seems kind of ridiculous.  There's just a huge number of people who could be chosen as a running mate, so I don't see how it could be so incredibly likely that it'll be one of those two.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, though it's also hard for me to imagine Edwards being offered and accepting the VP slot again, yet he's at 7.2.  And it's hard for me to imagine Obama or Edwards picking someone as potentially polarizing as Hillary Clinton for VP, yet she's at 8.2.  And it's hard for me to imagine someone picking Jeb Bush (because of his last name, and the appearance of perpetuating the "Bush dynasty") or Michael Steele (because he's only a former Lt. Governor and failed Senate candidate) for VP, yet they're at 14.1 and 5.1 respectively.

So yes, Gore may be more overvalued than anyone else, but there are loads of overvalued people in the VP market.

[Mr. Morden]

From what I saw of the debate, Richardson did fine (at least if I try to view things from the perspective of what a Democratic primary voter would think), so I don't think his drop has much to do with his debate performance.

[Mr. Morden]

From what I saw of the debate, Richardson did fine (at least if I try to view things from the perspective of what a Democratic primary voter would think), so I don't think his drop has much to do with his debate performance.

How did Obama, Clinton and Edwards do?

I just posted on that in the debate thread.

Btw, the Intrade odds for Huckabee dropping out of the race by the end of 2007 have dropped all the way down to 35.0.

[Mr. Morden]

One would think that John Warner's retirement would make it less likely that Mark Warner will be VP (since it makes it *more* likely that he'll run for Senate, and I can't see him being tapped for VP if he's in the middle of an open seat Senate race).  But no one's selling Mark Warner VP shares.  He's still at 14.2 in the VP market, which puts him at 3rd place behind Richardson and Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know why Webb has dropped off so much in the VP market.  I definitely think he's underrated now.  I *do* know why Warner has dropped off so much, but 0.1% is surely a bit low.

[Mr. Morden]

So is this the first time Paul-odds to win the GOP nomination has passed Edwards-odds to win the Dem. nomination?  How long before Paul-odds to win the GOP nomination passes Gore-odds to win the Dem. nomination?

Also, Romney is starting to close on Thompson, and Giuliani is gaining.  As of right now, it's:

Giuliani 38.6
Thompson 24.0
Romney 23.0

[Mr. Morden]

Who the f**k are these morons bidding on Gore?

Probably some of the same people who bet on Hillary Clinton four years ago:



Notice how even after Kerry had the nomination all wrapped up, there was still some activity in the Clinton market, with her trading at a few percent as late as June 2004.  Lord knows what kind of scenario these people were envisioning for her to grab the nomination at the convention at that point.

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual is kind of amusing:

Clinton 44.3
Giuliani 16.3
Thompson 9.0
Romney 8.5
Obama 7.6
Gore 6.5
Edwards 3.0
McCain 2.5
Paul 2.5

At the moment, the winning individual odds on Gore are up to 7.7 (while Obama's up to 8.2).  So Gore is just slightly less likely than Obama is to go all the way and win the GE next year?  And there's a greater chance that Gore will go all the way than there is that Edwards will simply win the nomination?  Does that seem right to anyone here?

[Mr. Morden]

In the Dem. nomination market, Obama has moved down to 13.0, and Gore has moved up to 11.5.  Could Gore actually pass Obama?