Yes, unlike the DNC, which specifically allowed 4 states to vote pre-Feb. 5th, the RNC doesn't have any special exemptions for Iowa and NH, or anyone else. But the RNC's sanctions aren't serious enough to dissuade candidates from campaigning in those states. Losing half your delegates is a price that's more than offset by going first.
Anyway, back to Michigan. Here are some additional details on the MI GOP's likely backup plan if the Jan. 15th primary fails, and some added background on the legislative dealmaking:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2007/11/michigan_in_chaos.htmlIf nothing happens to restore the Jan. 15th primary, then I assume the MI GOP will go forward with this Jan. 25/26 convention, significantly diminishing the state's influence on the GOP race from what it would have been with a Jan. 15th primary. (Both because it would be later, and because a convention isn't going to get the same amount of media attention as a primary.) The Dems would hold a caucus, but there's no consensus on when that caucus would be. It might be Feb. 9th. Or it might be in January. Potentially in early January, even as early as Jan. 5th.
The state legislature apparently will only be meeting one day this coming week (Tuesday) before going on vacation, so I assume if they can't make a deal via horsetrading on that day, the only hope for the primary would be if the court decision is overturned on appeal. The state has in fact submitted an appeal.
If the primary is dropped, what effect would it have on the race? Well, aside from the implications on the scheduling of the NH primary, there'd probably be no effect on the Dem. side, because the state had already been stripped of its delegates, and the candidates were ignoring it anyway. On the GOP side, this would make the SC primary more important, which would probably collectively help Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson. It makes it a little more likely that one of them will be able to upset Giuliani and Romney, because Giuliani and Romney would both have advantages in MI that they wouldn't in SC. (Both because they have more $, and MI is a more expensive state to run in, and because Giuliani and Romney are not the kind of Republicans who you would expect to play well in SC.)
