2. The "Super-Duper Tuesday" primary in February 2008 is what will decide the nominee. There are so many candidates entered in Iowa that whoever wins will get less than 30%, and that means little. However, by the big primary several candidates will be out.
I don't think that really matters though. It's not really the winning candidate's margin of victory that's most important. A lot of it is just beating expectations in the early states. Buchanan came in second with 23% of the vote in Iowa in 1996 and got a decent boost out of it, because it was much better than expected for him.
And yes, Super Duper Tuesday will likely decide the nominations, but the point is that the outcome in the earlier states will heavily influence the results of Super Duper Tuesday.
I agree that Iowa's special status will likely come to a close in the near future as the other states will eventually force a rule change that revokes IA's preferential status, but I see no evidence that Iowa is already losing that status. I don't have any hard numbers, but it seems as though the candidates have spent more time campaigning in Iowa than in all the Feb. 5th states combined. Georgia, for example, has the 3rd largest # of GOP delegates among the Feb. 5th states (and the 2nd largest, NY, is unlikely to be fought over, as it's an easy win for Giuliani). But when was the last time you heard about one of the Republican candidates campaigning in Georgia? It doesn't seem to be happening. Instead, they're spending almost all their time in the states that vote in January, with Iowa being the #1 target.
