NBC/WSJ poll: Romney 33% Huckabee 20% Palin 18%

[Mr. Morden]

From Firstread:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/05/1646644.aspx

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Unclear exactly how the question is worded.  I guess the way this blog post phrases it, it might have imply asked who Republicans want as their "new leader" rather than who they want as their 2012 presidential nominee, but it's a fairly similar question.  I guess we'll figure it out once the full poll comes out.

[Mr. Morden]

I bet Romney takes it. The GOP has thing for people who lost primaries in the past, unlike us Democrats.

33% is probably Romney's ceiling, lol.  it's all could could muster this time around despite having a monopoly on the money.

Good call.  Huckabee and Palin's supporters are pretty much one in the same, I suspect.  Let's see who else enters.  Jindal?

Huckabee's and Palin's supporters are pretty much one in the same?  What about all the talk radio listening "movement conservatives" who hated Huck almost as much as they hated McCain during the primaries?  I would imagine that many of them are OK with Palin.

Also, with regard to Jindal, I'm curious as to whether you think he will actually give up on running for a second term in order to run for president?  I mean, with the Louisiana governor's race being held in November 2011 and Iowa caucuses being held in January 2012, it would seem kind of impractical to be running in both.

[Mr. Morden]

Depends on the landscape.  If Obama has a good first term and has decent approval ratings, the field will be incredibly weak.... Thune, Jindal, etc. will wait for 2016

The problem is that we won't know whether Obama will be beatable in 2012 until *after* the GOP field takes shape.  See, for example, the 1992 election, in which all the big name Dems passed on the chance to run because Bush appeared to be unbeatable.