2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Suburbia]

Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno is in.

http://www.app.com/story/news/2017/01/12/kim-guadagno-files-paperwork-run-governor/96492914/

Guadagno and Ciattarelli both seem like bad picks to even try to hold the governorship. They were both publicly anti-Trump which could offend a lot of Trumpists, and I doubt their bold stance on that makes a damn bit of difference to the people who utterly despise the Christie admin, which Guadagno will be tied to. Coattarelli might do marginally better than Guadagno, but I suspect this race is likely D, and more on the safe side than the lean side.

Realistically, the Republicans don't have the option of trying to retain the governorship, so who they pick is basically irrelevant (and they know this). They're just trying to salvage what they can in the state legislature. Guadagno is a sacrificial lamb. She's too tied to Christie to have a political career in New Jersey after the end of Christie's administration.

The GOP could lose seats in the Senate and Assembly; that would be bad for Bramnick or Kean's Senate prospects in 2018 against Menendez.

[Suburbia]

Two developments: Eversham, N.J. mayor Randy Brown will not run for N.J. governor. He's a Republican. He is probably seeing the writing on the wall.

Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has cancer, but he will continue to run for governor. He's a good man. He should run for Senate in 2018 or 2020, or he may Guadagno's lieutenant governor running mate in the fall.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/ciatterelli_discloses_cancer_says_he_will_continue.html#incart_most-read_politics_article

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/01/nfl_coachmayor_nj_governor.html#incart_river_index

However, if Joe Piscopo runs for N.J. governor, could Guadagno lose the NJ GOP nomination? It's possible.

[Suburbia]

Wisniewski feels that N.J. Democrats are doing a coronation with Phil Murphy being the frontrunner for N.J. governor. Wisniewski could be a good lieutenant governor running mate choice, or he could be a good House candidate if Frank Pallone runs for Senate in 2018 or 2020 if Menendez is indicted or retires or if Booker runs for president or is the VP choice in 2020.

http://observer.com/2017/01/gubernatorial-candidate-wisniewski-primary-shouldnt-be-coronation-for-murphy/

[Suburbia]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

[Suburbia]

What are the downballot expectations this fall in New Jersey?

Former Goldman Sachs CEO Phil Murphy is the likely governor of N.J., he picks Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter as his lieutenant governor running mate to win N.J. black voters whom he needs to win. (He can't afford low turnout in N.J.'s urban bases of Passaic, Middlesex, Perth Amboy, New Brunswick, Newark.)

The Republican nominee will most likely be Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who'll pick State Senator Mike Doherty as her lieutenant governor running mate to appeal to more conservative voters in Hunterdon, Morris, Union, Sussex, etc.

Murphy will most likely win, unless he doesn't screw it up. If he screws it up, it will be a major upset in the N.J. Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party nationally. It would show that the Democrats have major problems.

[Suburbia]

However, if Murphy wins, he'll probably run for reelection in 2021. N.J. GOP may have a better bench by then, if he does not do a good job. It depends who the president is in 2021. If it is Booker/Warren/Harris, he may have a hard time, due to "the president's party loses seats argument".

[Suburbia]

Lesniak or Fulop would be good choices in 2018 than Menendez or Torricelli. However, Frank Pallone or Rush Holt could win the Senate seat in 2018 if Menendez is in trouble.

[Suburbia]

If Murphy's monstrous lead holds in November, do Dems have an actual shot at obtaining a supermajority in both houses? I know they need 3 seats in the Senate, and one pickup is all-but guaranteed with Diane Allen retiring, but who are their rumored candidates against Addiego, Bateman, and Bucco? I know they have a strong challenger against Beck already, but there's a lot of other Clinton-R seats on the table.

And they just need 2 in the Assembly, and Chris Brown's and Ciattarelli's open seats are the obvious targets, but there's also a few other Clinton-R seats.

Any NJ posters have insights?

If that happens, Tom Kean and Jon Bramnick, both from NJ's 21st district are done. N.J. GOP may need new leaders in the Senate and Assembly. Kean and Bramnick are already seen as RINOS, and they are seen as men who could beat Menendez, Torricelli, or Fulop in the 2018 Senate election.

If N.J. Democrats have a supermajority in the Legislature, it will be a good night for the Democrats. However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Poor Diane Allen. She is a moderate Republican. She may never run for office again.
http://observer.com/2017/01/nj-state-senator-diane-allen-to-retire/

[Suburbia]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

[Suburbia]

A few things:

1. Bernie holds off on endorsing Wisniewski, cites the fact that his supporters are split between him and Murphy (I'm guessing the CWA played a part in this). http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-not-endorsing-109114

2. Bernie's son Levi endorses Murphy, will campaign with him http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/01/bernie-sanders-son-endorses-murphy-109110

Then there's no way Murphy is at risk

Jeff Weaver endorses Wisniewski!

Wisniewski is toast IMO but I would prefer him over Menendez in 2018 Senate race!

I'd prefer Lesniak but dude's 70 unfortunately.

Lesniak would be a good Congressman in 2018 against Albio Sires in a primary, or if Menendez retires/resigns in 2017-18, or if Booker retires in 2020 to run for president or vice president. He would be 74 in 2020, but we have a lot of 70-year old senators.

[Suburbia]

However, if in 2019, a Gov. Murphy is unpopular, the GOP could pick up one of the chambers for the first time since 2001.

Why? What about 2019 and NJ suggests that will happen? I'd say until verifiable trends or other evidence suggest so, I doubt NJ Democrats are losing any chambers in the Trump era.

N.J. is one of the highest taxed states in the nation. If Phil Murphy raises taxes in his first two years as N.J. governor, voters are going to be fed up. New Jersey has had a tax problem for decades now, and it has helped Republicans in the past (Christie Todd Whitman in '93, Chris Christie in '09). Anything can happen, and the N.J. GOP could come back sooner than later.

N.J voters are always fed up, and they always vote democrat regardless. Chris Christie won in 2009 because he was running against an unpopular incumbent who was a former wall street executive during the recession.

True. I don't know why. All my years living in NJ, I always wonder why. I think after Kean left Trenton in 1990, Florio, Whitman, DiFrancesco, McGreevey, etc. haven't explained the taxes situation well to voters. They have their State of the State addresses at 2 p.m., when most New Jerseyans are at work.

[Suburbia]

I honestly don't understand the Kean obsession among certain people on this forum. He's a perfectly fine State Senator and Minority Leader, but he really doesn't have much charisma or charm.

He only did as well as he did in the 2006 Senate race because Menendez was unknown, and because many people still remembered his father fondly. However, no one under the age of 25 knew who Tom Kean Sr. was; now few people under 40 do, so his name recognition isn't what it used to be.

He could beat Menendez or Torricelli convincingly in 2018. Just because it is a Trump/Pence midterm in 2018, doesn't mean that Democrats are going to do well. Kean, Webber, or Rich Bagger could beat Menendez/Torricelli in 2018.

NJ is too non-white to elect a Republican US Senator.

Really? I think a Kyrillos or a Kean could do well with minority voters. NJ will elect a GOP Senator, soon. Menendez or Torricelli could lose if they are unpopular.

[Suburbia]

New Jersey Republicans are probably looking for something new than Lt. Gov. Guadagno. She could run for Senate in 2018 or 2020, or a congressional seat.

Ciattarelli is the most electable N.J. Republican, but he is unknown outside of Somerset County.

Rogers is a fringe candidate, but can gain steam if Guadango's polls go down.

People will pay more attention in the spring. There needs to be debates on TV so viewers can be informed.

I wonder who Christie will endorse? He's already toxic politically. 

[Suburbia]

The way how the NJ GOP is right now, and with Guadagno as the likely nominee, is it possible that Phil Murphy could win Morris County, a GOP stronghold? It is very possible, Hillary Clinton won some Republican-leaning towns last year against Trump in the presidential election.

http://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2016/10/08/red-hot-murphy-plans-turn-morris-county-blue/91733946/

[Suburbia]

Joe Piscopo is the only Republican who can defeat Guadango, it would send shivers down the NJ GOP like in 2001 when conservative Jersey City mayor Bret Schundler defeated moderate hero Bob Franks in the GOP primary.

I could see Christie shaming and humiliating his No. 2 and endorsing Piscopo. Imagine how that would look.

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/jersey-city-mayor-wins-gop-gov-nod-article-1.909980

http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/news/n-gop-gov-pick-today-article-1.899026

[Suburbia]

NYT on Piscopo's potential run for Governor:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/20/nyregion/joe-piscopo-new-jersey-governor.html?_r=1&referer=https://www.google.com/

Yeah Joe. Run as an independent.

If Piscopo runs, who does he spoil the most? Guadagno/Ciattarelli or Murphy/Wisnieswski?

[Suburbia]

Phil Murphy won the endorsement of the Middlesex County Democratic Party, which is a blow to his rival, Middlesex's own John Wisniewski. Wisniewski's spokespeople are disappointed. Murphy is the odds-on favorite to become the next New Jersey governor.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/murphy_wins_another_county_while_rivals_boycott.html#incart_river_index

[Suburbia]

Wisniewski.

Even working for Goldman Sachs, much less serving as an executive of the company, should be an automatic disqualifier for running for office.

Wisniewski is a good candidate, but Murphy has the establishment behind him and they know to turn voters out. However, I fear that June's primaries may be low turnout if people see the N.J. Democratic Party having a "Phil Murphy primary coronation".

Wisniewski should run for Senate if Menendez or Booker resigns, or for Frank Pallone's House seat in the future.

[Suburbia]

Piscopo could do a lot of damage to the NJ GOP if he runs as an Independent. Ciattarelli is the only GOP candidate who can beat Phil Murphy or John Wisniewski. Guadagno is too close to Christie, but the GOP establishment is probably behind her.

However, if Piscopo runs as a Republican, he could win the primary. I don't see the Lt. Gov. exciting NJ GOPers, because she didn't support Trump in the 2016 election.

However, if Guadagno loses the GOP primary in June, it would be a big upset, she could run for Congress in 2018, or Senate in 2018, or some other seat, or run for governor again in 2021.

[Suburbia]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

[Suburbia]

This new story from the Observer shows that millennial New Jerseyans may be trending towards Phil Murphy. The hardcore millennial Bernie Sanders supporters are disappointed in Wisniewski that Sanders didn't win in New Jersey. We'll see what happens.

http://observer.com/2017/03/nj-young-voters-john-wisniewski-phil-murphy/

Because Phil will give them that sweet legal ganja

True. As a New Jerseyan, I support the idea, but I won't be surprised if some folks aren't efficient in their work.

[Suburbia]

Joe Piscopo will not run for governor as a Republican, he will most likely run as an Independent.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/03/its_official_piscopo_wont_run_as_a_republican_as_a.html#incart_river_home

[Suburbia]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

[Suburbia]

Do you see any chance Murphy picks Wisniewski as his lieutenant governor running mate after the June 6 primary? Or does he choose someone from South Jersey? (There is a North-South Jersey political divide in N.J.)

He'll likely pick Shavonda Sumter.

Addendum, by the way: Jim Johnson is appearing on Joy Reid's show tomorrow. He's sharing the spotlight with Perriello and Gillum (and Reid is a hack, Johnson's only appearing on the show because his wife and Joy are good friends) but I think he's pushing to make this primary as national as Perriello's is.

I like Assemblywoman Sumter and Jim Johnson. If Wisniewski doesn't get his campaign in order, it is possible Johnson can be 2nd place to Murphy in June and Wisniewski and Lesniak far behind.

Johnson would be a good future Senate candidate down the road.

[Suburbia]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

I do find this odd, since he would have been the only pro-Trump candidate for Governor in a republican primary electorate thats very pro-Trump. I think Piscopo is convinced that Guadagno will win the nom, and he thought by running as an Indie, he can run against both the Christie admin. and the Democrats in one go.

I have no clue how well he would do, but if he runs a very Trumpian campaign, I can see him getting 10-12% of the vote (but nothing higher than that).

Piscopo will get 5%-10% of the vote. That could siphon votes from Guadagno or Ciattarelli. Guadagno or Ciattarelli would do well in running against Bob Menendez in 2018. Ciattarelli could beat Menendez next year for Senate.